UFC Predictions: UFC 268: Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington 2

After a blockbuster show in the form of UFC 267, this weekend sees the UFC visit New York City for UFC 268: Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington 2.

UFC 268 looks like an absolutely loaded card overall, complete with two title fights and a major lightweight clash on tap.

So with plenty here to excite all UFC fans, this is one event that nobody ought to consider missing. With that in mind, here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 268: Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington 2.

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#1. UFC welterweight title: Kamaru Usman vs. Colby Covington

Kamaru Usman knocked Colby Covington out in their first meeting at UFC 245

If we’re honest, on paper this fight doesn’t make a lot of sense. We’ve already seen it once, back at UFC 245 in December 2019.

That fight saw Kamaru Usman make the first defense of his newly-won UFC welterweight title, knocking Colby Covington out in the fifth round. It wasn’t a one-sided fight by any means but, realistically, Usman was ahead going into the final round and sealed the deal by finishing ‘Chaos’.

Since then, Covington has fought just once – a late TKO of Tyron Woodley – and in all honesty hasn’t completely earned this rematch.

Usman, on the other hand, has cut a path of destruction through the division, taking out Gilbert Burns and Jorge Masvidal twice. He has looked better every time he’s stepped into the octagon.

So why has the UFC booked this fight? Essentially, it’s because Usman doesn’t have a clear-cut No.1 contender right now. Covington is at least a known entity in the division who’s willing to talk plenty of trash.

Strangely, it doesn’t feel like ‘Chaos’ has been talking all that much coming into this one. After all, how do you insult someone who’s already broken your jaw?

So does Covington stand any chance of dethroning ‘The Nigerian Nightmare’ this time around? It feels doubtful.

Covington has undoubtedly been successful in the UFC, beating the likes of Woodley, Rafael dos Ajos and Robbie Lawler, but those wins were built around pressure. Essentially, ‘Chaos’ used the threat of his takedowns to back them up and overwhelm them with volume striking.

Against Usman, however, that threat largely doesn’t exist. ‘The Nigerian Nightmare’ has never been taken down in his UFC career, and it doesn’t seem likely that Covington will be the man to change that. After all, he couldn’t in five rounds two years ago.

That means that ‘Chaos’ will be left to strike with the champion. While he’s a capable boxer, he doesn’t hit with the power of Usman, nor does he possess the ramrod jab that ‘The Nigerian Nightmare’ has developed.

Overall, it simply doesn’t feel like enough has changed since their first fight to justify picking Covington in this one. If anything, Usman’s striking has developed even further since then, meaning it’s likely he’ll finish his rival more quickly this time.

The Pick: Usman via third round TKO

Here are the Latest UFC Predictions by Sportskeeda

#2. UFC strawweight title: Rose Namajunas vs. Weili Zhang

Rose Namajunas scored a violent TKO of Weili Zhang in their first clash

Like the main event, this UFC title bout is a rematch. Unlike Usman vs. Covington, though, it feels like this fight is slightly more justified.

Rose Namajunas – the only two-time champion in UFC strawweight history – defeated Weili Zhang to win the title at UFC 261 in April. The fight went so quickly – and violently – that it makes sense for the UFC to offer Zhang an immediate rematch.

Can Zhang regain the title this time around? She’s definitely got the raw ability and, if nothing else, probably won’t end up being taken out in just over a minute this time.

However, it is hard to shake off the idea that stylistically, Namajunas is simply a bad match for ‘Magnum’.

One of the most highly touted prospects to ever emerge from China, Zhang debuted in the UFC in 2018. She quickly reeled off three impressive wins, culminating with a decision victory over Tecia Torres.

Many fans predicted success for her in 2019, but few expected the UFC to give her a strawweight title shot. Even fewer figured she’d beat then-champion Jessica Andrade, but Zhang took the Brazilian out in the first round, using her aggression and surprising her with brutal striking power.

Zhang’s next fight was the instant classic with Joanna Jedrzejczyk – a clash that showed her to possess insane toughness and phenomenal cardio. After taking a year off, she then fell to ‘Thug Rose’.

At her best, Zhang is an excellent technical striker who packs plenty of power, and she’s great on the ground too and has the capability to submit opponents.

However, for as good as Zhang is on the feet, it would appear that Namajunas is better. Where Zhang was drawn into a brawl with Jedrzejczyk, Namajunas knocked the Polish fighter out in their first meeting and then picked her apart with her jab in their second.

Sure, she did lose to Andrade, but it was in a fight she was clearly winning, and the finish came in almost fluke-like fashion. Essentially, Namajunas went too hard at a kimura attempt and wound up being slammed on her head. She later righted that wrong by comfortably outpointing Andrade last year.

Basically, all the evidence suggests that ‘Thug Rose’ might not be as powerful a striker as Zhang, but she’s technically superior to the rest of the fighters in the strawweight division.

That means that while Zhang only needs one chance to put her away, it’s going to be very hard for her to find that one shot – particularly as Namajunas appears to be substantially faster than her, too.

Zhang’s best gameplan might be to clinch and grind Namajunas down as Karolina Kowalkiewicz did back in 2016. However, ‘Thug Rose’ has likely developed due to that loss and may well be trickier to get hold of.

This isn’t an impossible fight for ‘Magnum’, but it seems likely that she’ll come out on the wrong end of things again.

The Pick: Namajunas via unanimous decision

#3. UFC 268: The Main Card

Justin Gaethje faces Michael Chandler in a major lightweight clash at UFC 268

In UFC 268’s third marquee bout, Justin Gaethje takes on Michael Chandler in a lightweight clash. Both of these fighters are amongst the most exciting in the promotion, and they’re also well within reach of a shot at the lightweight title.

It should be a close one to call, too – both have similar styles in that they’re excellent wrestlers who prefer to strike. However, the big difference may be that Gaethje has less mileage on him and seems more durable than Chandler, who was stopped by Charles Oliveira in his last fight.

Overall, expect a total war, but it should be Gaethje who gets his hand raised – probably by KO.

In the featherweight division, Shane Burgos faces Billy Quarantillo. Burgos is coming off two straight wins, but his size, striking ability and pressuring style still make him one of the more dangerous 145lbers out there.

Quarantillo, on the other hand, is equally aggressive and dangerous. Despite a strong UFC record, he hasn’t fought the calibre of opposition of Burgos nor does he possess the power of ‘The Hurricane’. Expect an exciting fight here, but Burgos should take it via decision or late stoppage.

Finally, Frankie Edgar faces Marlon Vera in a bantamweight clash. A few years ago, this would’ve been an easy pick for Edgar. He likely would’ve used his boxing, wrestling and cardio to simply outwork ‘Chito’ even if a finish wasn’t possible.

Here, though, it’s hard not to worry for ‘The Answer’. He’s won just one of his last four fights, and has suffered bad KOs twice recently too. At the age of 40, and with a career of wars behind him, it’s likely that he’s done at this level – and Vera is more than capable of taking him out. Vera by KO is the pick.

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#4. UFC 268: The Prelims

Picks in bold

UFC middleweight division: Alex Pereira vs. Andreas Michailidis

UFC lightweight division: Al Iaquinta vs. Bobby Green

UFC middleweight division: Phil Hawes vs. Chris Curtis

UFC middleweight division: Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Nassourdine Imavov

UFC welterweight division: Ian Garry vs. Jordan Williams

UFC heavyweight division: Gian Villante vs. Chris Barnett

UFC flyweight division: CJ Vergara vs. Ode Osbourne

UFC light-heavyweight division: John Allan vs. Dustin Jacoby

UFC featherweight division: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Bruno Souza