UFC Predictions: UFC 272: Colby Covington vs. Jorge Masvidal

The world’s premier MMA promotion returns to pay-per-view this weekend, as UFC 272: Colby Covington vs. Jorge Masvidal goes down from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

UFC 272 features a very deep card, including a major grudge match in the headliner between former friends-turned-rivals Colby Covington and Jorge Masvidal.

So with plenty at stake this weekend and chances for multiple fighters to climb into title contention, who will come out on top?

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 272: Colby Covington vs. Jorge Masvidal.

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#1. UFC welterweight division: Colby Covington vs. Jorge Masvidal

Can Jorge Masvidal find a way to overcome the pressuring style of Colby Covington this weekend?

The first UFC pay-per-view not to feature a title bout in its headliner since UFC 264 – which was headlined by Conor McGregor vs. Dustin Poirier – this weekend’s event sees a major grudge match at the top of the card.

Colby Covington and Jorge Masvidal were not only teammates at American Top Team a handful of years ago, but they were also close friends, or so the story goes. Covington even stayed on Masvidal’s couch for a time.

However, when ‘Chaos’ began his trash-talking rampage back in 2017, he found himself on the outs with his teammates, including Masvidal. Since then, the two welterweights have built up a substantial rivalry.

When all the talking ends this weekend, though, which of these outstanding fighters will come out on top? It’s quite a difficult one to call overall.

Both men have put together plenty of victories in recent years and their only losses have come at the hands of UFC welterweight kingpin Kamaru Usman, who beat both men twice. Of course, there’s no shame in losing to ‘The Nigerian Nightmare’, though, and there’s a genuine argument to suggest ‘Chaos’ and ‘Gamebred’ could beat everyone else in the division.

On paper, at least, the stylistic match seems to favor Covington. He’s probably the second-best wrestler in the division behind Usman. When the champ chose to really look to grapple with Masvidal in their first meeting in July 2020, ‘Gamebred’ didn’t have much of an answer.

However, it’s worth noting that, firstly, Masvidal took the bout on late notice, meaning that he perhaps didn’t have enough time to drill his defensive wrestling properly. Prior to that fight, after all, he’d never really been blanketed.

Secondly, Covington is a very different fighter to Usman. ‘The Nigerian Nightmare’ favors a methodical approach, using his jab and his takedowns to force opportunities to land the kind of bomb he used to knock Masvidal out in their second meeting.

‘Chaos’, on the other hand, is all about pressure, forward motion and pushing a torrid pace. Usman was able to keep up with him, but prior to that, he totally overwhelmed Robbie Lawler, Rafael dos Anjos and Demian Maia, and did a great deal of damage with his striking.

If he chooses to stand with Masvidal, of course, he could find himself in trouble. ‘Gamebred’ is one of the sharpest strikers in the promotion, even if there might be questions about how he’s going to rebound from his knockout to Usman.

However, can Masvidal really withstand the pace of Covington, particularly if ‘Chaos’ chooses to look to implement his takedowns to really force his opponent on the back foot? It’s hard to say.

Essentially, this one could go badly for Covington if he takes too many risks, but realistically, the stylistic match favors him too much to pick Masvidal.

The Pick: Covington via decision

#2. UFC lightweight division: Rafael dos Anjos vs. Rafael Fiziev

Rafael Fiziev is looking for the biggest win of his UFC career this weekend against Rafael Dos Anjos

Initially, this lightweight fight was all set to headline the UFC’s Fight Night card on February 19. However, with Rafael Fiziev failing to secure a visa in time, that event’s loss is this card’s gain.

Now that ‘Ataman’ has sorted his issues, then, can he beat Rafael dos Anjos and move into genuine title contention at 155 pounds? It’s difficult to say, as both men have a lot to prove in this bout.

Fiziev has looked fantastic for the majority of his career in the octagon. After falling to Magomed Mustafaev in his 2019 debut, he’s won five straight bouts, largely using his flashy striking attack. It’s not like he’s been snacking on grapplers, either, as his last two wins came over strong strikers in Bobby Green and Brad Riddell.

However, it’s safe to say that the native of Kazakhstan has never fought an opponent as proven as dos Anjos before.

‘RDA’ was initially known primarily for his grappling, but when he hooked up with famed trainer Rafael Cordeiro in the early 2010’s, his striking suddenly developed dramatically. His high-pressure Muay Thai game suddenly allowed him to overwhelm his opponents in every area and he found himself holding the UFC lightweight title after defeating Anthony Pettis.

Rafael dos Anjos’ title reign did not last all that long, but after a handful of losses at welterweight forced him back down to 155 pounds in 2020, he looked practically back to his best in a win over Paul Felder.

The Brazilian seems to match up well with Fiziev, at least on paper. The last time he lost to a striker was against Tony Ferguson in 2016. Since then, he’s impressed against Paul Felder, Robbie Lawler and Tarec Saffiedine.

However, the fact that he hasn’t fought since November 2020 and is now 37 years old is hugely concerning. He’s taken plenty of damage over the years, even if he’s only ever been knocked out twice. To see his durability vanish suddenly would not be surprising at all.

Five years ago, this fight would’ve been to the advantage of the Brazilian, who probably would’ve pressured Fiziev back, unleashed his striking and then probably taken him down to attempt a submission.

Now, though, it feels like ‘RDA’ is on the way down, while ‘Ataman’ is definitely on his way up. He may still fall to the Brazilian, who could still pull off a resurgence – but overall, this is a worrying bout for him.

The Pick: Fiziev via second-round KO

#3. UFC 272: The Main Card

Longtime veteran Edson Barboza features on this weekend's main card

In a fantastic featherweight bout, Edson Barboza takes on Bryce Mitchell. This should be a classic battle of striker against grappler, with Mitchell hoping to take ‘Junior’ down and the Brazilian looking to knock the head off ‘Thug Nasty’.

It could honestly go either way based on the fact that Mitchell is yet to face an opponent this good, but Barboza is beginning to slow down. It’s also worth noting that many of his recent losses came at the hands of grapplers.

Mitchell is not as powerful a wrestler as Kevin Lee, but he’s definitely an excellent grappler with the ability to control his opponents. More to the point, he doesn’t know what it’s like to lose. Therefore, the pick is Mitchell via decision.

In a welterweight bout, Kevin Holland drops to 170 pounds for the first time in his UFC career to take on Alex Oliveira. One of the most successful fighters of 2020, Holland has not won since that year, having lost twice in 2021 before falling to a headbutt in a No Contest with Kyle Daukaus.

However, he’s faced with a fighter seemingly on his way down the ladder in the form of Oliveira in this one. ‘Cowboy’ has won just two of his last eight bouts in the octagon and has lost his last three fights.

Assuming Holland can make welterweight with no problems, then, this looks like his fight to lose. He’s got the ability to put too much pressure on Oliveira for the Brazilian to cope with, particularly on the ground, and will likely win via TKO.

Finally, Sergey Spivak faces Greg Hardy in a heavyweight bout. This should be the last chance saloon for Hardy, as he’s lost his last two fights by TKO and has reached the end of his UFC contract.

It’s a tricky match for Spivak as the native of Moldova is not the best athlete. However, if he can put Hardy on his back, then the former NFL star will find things hard going.

Overall, Hardy is the better athlete and if he can land on Spivak, he can win. However, ‘The Polar Bear’ is used to being the lesser athlete and the fact that he was able to beat Tai Tuivasa and Alexei Oleinik bodes well for him. Therefore, the pick is Spivak via TKO.

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#4. UFC 272: The Prelims

Picks in bold

Lightweight: Jalin Turner vs. Jamie Mullarkey

Women's strawweight: Marina Rodriguez vs. Yan Xiaonan

Light heavyweight: Nicolae Negumereanu vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu

Women's flyweight: Maryna Moroz vs. Mariya Agapova

Featherweight: Brian Kelleher vs. Umar Nurmagomedov

Flyweight: Tim Elliott vs. Tagir Ulanbekov

Light heavyweight: Michal Oleksiejczuk vs. Dustin Jacoby

Lightweight: Devonte Smith vs. Ludovit Klein