UFC Predictions: UFC 272: Colby Covington vs. Jorge Masvidal

#2. UFC lightweight division: Rafael dos Anjos vs. Rafael Fiziev

Rafael Fiziev is looking for the biggest win of his UFC career this weekend against Rafael Dos Anjos

Initially, this lightweight fight was all set to headline the UFC’s Fight Night card on February 19. However, with Rafael Fiziev failing to secure a visa in time, that event’s loss is this card’s gain.

Now that ‘Ataman’ has sorted his issues, then, can he beat Rafael dos Anjos and move into genuine title contention at 155 pounds? It’s difficult to say, as both men have a lot to prove in this bout.

Fiziev has looked fantastic for the majority of his career in the octagon. After falling to Magomed Mustafaev in his 2019 debut, he’s won five straight bouts, largely using his flashy striking attack. It’s not like he’s been snacking on grapplers, either, as his last two wins came over strong strikers in Bobby Green and Brad Riddell.

However, it’s safe to say that the native of Kazakhstan has never fought an opponent as proven as dos Anjos before.

‘RDA’ was initially known primarily for his grappling, but when he hooked up with famed trainer Rafael Cordeiro in the early 2010’s, his striking suddenly developed dramatically. His high-pressure Muay Thai game suddenly allowed him to overwhelm his opponents in every area and he found himself holding the UFC lightweight title after defeating Anthony Pettis.

Rafael dos Anjos’ title reign did not last all that long, but after a handful of losses at welterweight forced him back down to 155 pounds in 2020, he looked practically back to his best in a win over Paul Felder.

The Brazilian seems to match up well with Fiziev, at least on paper. The last time he lost to a striker was against Tony Ferguson in 2016. Since then, he’s impressed against Paul Felder, Robbie Lawler and Tarec Saffiedine.

However, the fact that he hasn’t fought since November 2020 and is now 37 years old is hugely concerning. He’s taken plenty of damage over the years, even if he’s only ever been knocked out twice. To see his durability vanish suddenly would not be surprising at all.

Five years ago, this fight would’ve been to the advantage of the Brazilian, who probably would’ve pressured Fiziev back, unleashed his striking and then probably taken him down to attempt a submission.

Now, though, it feels like ‘RDA’ is on the way down, while ‘Ataman’ is definitely on his way up. He may still fall to the Brazilian, who could still pull off a resurgence – but overall, this is a worrying bout for him.

The Pick: Fiziev via second-round KO