UFC Predictions: UFC 273: Alexander Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie

#2. UFC bantamweight title: Aljamain Sterling vs. Petr Yan

Can Aljamain Sterling find a way to defeat Petr Yan in their long-awaited rematch?

To say that this UFC rematch has been a long time coming would be an understatement. It seems like far more than just over a year has passed since Aljamain Sterling first won the bantamweight title from Petr Yan when the Russian was disqualified, but that’s probably because so much has happened since.

In the 13 months that have followed, the UFC has booked the rematch twice, only for it to fall apart on both occasions due to lingering injury issues for Sterling, while Yan also defeated Cory Sandhagen to claim a largely meaningless interim title.

Finally, they’re set to meet again So, will Sterling prove that he isn’t a paper champion by finding a way to win? Or will Yan simply run through him as many suspect to claim back the title he should probably never have lost?

There’s a good argument for both outcomes. In Yan’s favor, it’s probably fair to say that before he landed the illegal blow that ended the first bout, he was ahead on the scorecards.

‘No Mercy’ did struggle to get a handle on Sterling’s movement-based, kick-heavy style early on, but by the fourth round, he’d found his range and appeared to be beginning to pick ‘Funk Master’ apart.

However, it’s also correct to say that Sterling wasn’t doing as badly as some people have made out in that fight. A couple of adjustments, namely using slightly less erratic movements to set up his takedowns, may well have given him the edge.

So can he make those adjustments this time around? Essentially, it’s probably fair to say that he’s going to need to take Yan down if he wants to win. To do that, he’s probably going to have to put himself in harm’s way.

Sterling simply can’t chase around the octagon, throwing kicks in a manic fashion as he did the first time around to set up his takedowns. He’s much more likely to have to draw Yan in to do that and that risks him eating a huge power shot or vicious combination.

That, of course, is worrying. ‘Funk Master’ has been stunned and knocked out before, and Yan is probably the most ruthless striker in the division. However, given that his lone KO loss came when Marlon Moraes timed a shin strike to the head as he lunged for a takedown, it’d be unfair to write off his chin.

More to the point, Sterling seems more driven than ever to silence his critics here, while more than one observer has suggested that Yan may well be overlooking him given the success he had prior to his disqualification last year.

Yan should be the favorite here, but Sterling is that good of a grappler that all it might take for him to win is one successful takedown. If he gets it early, then ‘No Mercy’ might be toast.

The Pick: Sterling via first-round submission