UFC Predictions: UFC 274: Charles Oliveira vs. Justin Gaethje

The world’s biggest MMA promotion returns to pay-per-view this weekend with a genuinely huge show in the form of UFC 274: Charles Oliveira vs. Justin Gaethje.

Not only does UFC 274 feature a pair of title bouts, but it also pits two of the world’s most exciting lightweights against one another, while the undercard also has a number of excellent-sounding fights.

Overall, this event looks like it has the potential to be one of 2022’s most memorable overall, and if everything goes to plan, it could be a classic.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 274: Charles Oliveira vs. Justin Gaethje.

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#1. UFC lightweight title: Charles Oliveira vs. Justin Gaethje

Charles Oliveira's last fight saw him submit Dustin Poirier with a rear naked choke

The UFC lightweight title bout between Charles Oliveira and Justin Gaethje could easily be billed as a classic meeting of a grappler and a striker, but the truth is that it’s far more than that. If both men deliver the goods, we could be in for a fight that might define 2022.

It’s probably fair to suggest that Oliveira should come in as the favorite. ‘Do Bronx’ has transformed himself over the past couple of years from an action fighter who’d lose as many fights as he would win into the most feared 155lber on the planet, capable of defeating anyone with both strikes and submissions.

Sure, his grappling is still his bread and butter – he’s capable of slapping a submission on from seemingly any area, and if he takes an opponent’s back, they’re usually getting choked out. However, he’s also developed knockout power and surprising levels of durability, as Michael Chandler found out in their title bout last year.

Does Oliveira have any real weaknesses at this point? Arguably not. We haven’t really seen him against a top-level wrestler, but then his submission skills could provide him with a trump card in that kind of fight. Besides, Gaethje isn’t likely to wrestle him here.

However, it’s probably fair to argue that given that he’s been knocked out on four occasions in the past by opponents like Paul Felder and Cub Swanson, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that the right shot could turn the lights out on the Brazilian.

Can Gaethje land that shot? It’s definitely possible. Nobody in the lightweight division hits as hard as ‘The Highlight’, who has dispatched the likes of Edson Barboza and Tony Ferguson over his tenure with the UFC.

Gaethje is also a master of pressure-striking, forcing an opponent back with his savage leg kicks and forcing them to make mistakes, opening them up for his bigger, fight-ending shots. It’ll be this gameplan he’ll hope to unleash to beat Oliveira this weekend.

However, it is worth noting that Gaethje has been submitted before, by Khabib Nurmagomedov in 2020. In that fight, he didn’t look all that comfortable on the ground.

More to the point, Oliveira’s last fight came against the division’s other great pressure-striker in Dustin Poirier. ‘The Diamond’ wasn’t able to make it work at all before ‘Do Bronx’ took his back and choked him out in the third round. In fact, Oliveira absorbed his punches with relative ease.

With that considered, the pick has to be Oliveira via submission, with the outside chance of Gaethje landing the right shot to take him out being a slight possibility too.

The Pick: Oliveira via second round submission

#2. UFC strawweight title: Rose Namajunas vs. Carla Esparza

Rose Namajunas will be hopeful of avenging her 2014 loss to Carla Esparza this weekend

Like the main event, on paper at least, this bout pits a striker against a grappler in a distinct clash of styles. UFC strawweight champion Rose Namajunas is almost certainly the premier kickboxer at 115lbs right now, as she holds wins over Jessica Andrade, Weili Zhang and Joanna Jedrzejczyk.

Carla Esparza, meanwhile, is a pressure-based wrestler with excellent takedowns, solid top control, dangerous ground-and-pound and lethal submissions.

However, simply writing both fighters off as being one-dimensional would be unfair. Namajunas has always possessed a very dangerous submission game, particularly off her back, while Esparza’s boxing has come on leaps and bounds in recent years, to the point where she largely outstruck Claudia Gadelha when they fought in 2018.

Interestingly, this isn’t the first time that these fighters have clashed. For those who’ve forgotten, they faced off in 2014 in the inaugural UFC strawweight title bout, and Esparza largely dominated, finishing Namajunas with a rear-naked choke in the third round.

To expect a repeat here would be foolish, though. Namajunas had nowhere near the experience of ‘The Cookie Monster’ in that bout, and the improvements that she’s made in the years that have followed have been remarkable.

Essentially, then, it’s likely that this fight will go one of two ways. Either Esparza will be able to take Namajunas down, avoid her submissions, and keep her grounded en route to a submission or decision win, or she won’t be able to take ‘Thug Rose’ down and will probably come out second-best in a striking battle.

With that considered, the key area in this fight may well be the clinch. Esparza is excellent at hitting takedowns from range, but she’s also giving up four inches of height, meaning shooting in from distance would be dangerous for her.

The clinch, on the other hand, seems safer for her, particularly as other fighters have outpowered ‘Thug Rose’ from there in the past. However, that also risks Esparza being thrown by one of Namajunas’ foot sweeps, which is a big risk for her.

Overall, Esparza can probably win this fight, but against a champion with as much confidence as Namajunas has at the minute, it doesn’t seem likely. Overall, if ‘Thug Rose’ can block the first couple of takedowns, it should be her fight to lose.

The Pick: Namajunas via third round TKO

#3. UFC lightweight division: Michael Chandler vs. Tony Ferguson

Can Tony Ferguson return to form this weekend when he faces Michael Chandler?

The third big bout on this card sees lightweights Michael Chandler and Tony Ferguson do battle in what could well turn out to be an all-time classic fight. If both men can produce their best work – and that is a question mark of sorts – then the likelihood of this one winning a $50k bonus seems high.

The big question is exactly how much Ferguson has left to offer. At one point, ‘El Cucuy’ was riding a 12-fight winning streak and looked like the most dangerous 155lber on the roster.

However, he was never able to secure a clash with then-UFC champ Khabib Nurmagomedov, and his run came to a violent end at the hands of Justin Gaethje in the spring of 2020. Since then, Ferguson has lost two straight bouts. While those losses came against great fighters in Charles Oliveira and Beneil Dariush, ‘El Cucuy’ didn’t look like the same fighter at all.

What’s gone wrong with Ferguson? The likely answer is simply wear and tear. He’s now 38 years old, is likely past his athletic prime, and has been fighting killers in the toughest division in the world for over a decade.

Whether he can wind back the clock here, then, is a fair question. He has taken nearly a year off, which should help him a lot, but obviously he’s gotten no younger during that time. He’s also facing a fighter in Chandler, who, stylistically at least, is similar to Gaethje.

Whether ‘Iron Mike’ can show the same kind of patience that Gaethje did in his clash with Ferguson is a fair question to ask, particularly as he doesn’t have Gaethje’s chin – and Ferguson did hurt ‘The Highlight’ badly at one point.

However, given Ferguson’s age, downturn and the amount of damage he’s taken over the years, it’s hard to pick him against any other top-level lightweight right now in good faith. Therefore, the pick is Chandler.

The Pick: Chandler via unanimous decision

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#4. UFC 274: The Main Card

Mauricio Rua and Ovince St. Preux are set to rematch this weekend

Picks in bold

UFC light-heavyweight division: Mauricio Rua vs. Ovince St. Preux

UFC lightweight division: Donald Cerrone vs. Joe Lauzon

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#5. UFC 274: The Prelims

Picks in bold

UFC welterweight division: Francisco Trinaldo vs. Danny Roberts

UFC flyweight division: Tracy Cortez vs. Melissa Gatto

UFC flyweight division: Kleydson Rodrigues vs. CJ Vergara

UFC strawweight division: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Loopy Godinez

UFC bantamweight division: Journey Newson vs. Fernie Garcia

UFC welterweight division: Andre Fialho vs. Cameron VanCamp