UFC Predictions: UFC 274: Charles Oliveira vs. Justin Gaethje

#2. UFC strawweight title: Rose Namajunas vs. Carla Esparza

Rose Namajunas will be hopeful of avenging her 2014 loss to Carla Esparza this weekend

Like the main event, on paper at least, this bout pits a striker against a grappler in a distinct clash of styles. UFC strawweight champion Rose Namajunas is almost certainly the premier kickboxer at 115lbs right now, as she holds wins over Jessica Andrade, Weili Zhang and Joanna Jedrzejczyk.

Carla Esparza, meanwhile, is a pressure-based wrestler with excellent takedowns, solid top control, dangerous ground-and-pound and lethal submissions.

However, simply writing both fighters off as being one-dimensional would be unfair. Namajunas has always possessed a very dangerous submission game, particularly off her back, while Esparza’s boxing has come on leaps and bounds in recent years, to the point where she largely outstruck Claudia Gadelha when they fought in 2018.

Interestingly, this isn’t the first time that these fighters have clashed. For those who’ve forgotten, they faced off in 2014 in the inaugural UFC strawweight title bout, and Esparza largely dominated, finishing Namajunas with a rear-naked choke in the third round.

To expect a repeat here would be foolish, though. Namajunas had nowhere near the experience of ‘The Cookie Monster’ in that bout, and the improvements that she’s made in the years that have followed have been remarkable.

Essentially, then, it’s likely that this fight will go one of two ways. Either Esparza will be able to take Namajunas down, avoid her submissions, and keep her grounded en route to a submission or decision win, or she won’t be able to take ‘Thug Rose’ down and will probably come out second-best in a striking battle.

With that considered, the key area in this fight may well be the clinch. Esparza is excellent at hitting takedowns from range, but she’s also giving up four inches of height, meaning shooting in from distance would be dangerous for her.

The clinch, on the other hand, seems safer for her, particularly as other fighters have outpowered ‘Thug Rose’ from there in the past. However, that also risks Esparza being thrown by one of Namajunas’ foot sweeps, which is a big risk for her.

Overall, Esparza can probably win this fight, but against a champion with as much confidence as Namajunas has at the minute, it doesn’t seem likely. Overall, if ‘Thug Rose’ can block the first couple of takedowns, it should be her fight to lose.

The Pick: Namajunas via third round TKO