UFC Predictions: UFC 287: Alex Pereira vs. Israel Adesanya 2

After a weekend without any action, the UFC returns next Saturday with what promises to be one of the biggest pay-per-views of 2023 thus far.

UFC 287: Alex Pereira vs. Israel Adesanya 2 goes down in Miami, Florida, and features not only a huge rematch in the headliner, but the return of one of the promotion’s biggest stars in Jorge Masvidal.

With a number of other major bouts on tap, this one should be a must-see show for any MMA fans.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 287: Alex Pereira vs. Israel Adesanya 2.

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#1. UFC middleweight title: Alex Pereira vs. Israel Adesanya

Can Israel Adesanya finally gain some revenge over Alex Pereira?

When Alex Pereira defeated Israel Adesanya for the UFC middleweight title last November, it felt like both a huge upset and an inevitable result rolled all into one.

‘Poatan’ had famously defeated Adesanya twice in the kickboxing ring prior to both men beginning their journey into MMA. Because of this, many fans saw the Brazilian as kryptonite for ‘The Last Stylebender’.

However, with more wins in the octagon than Pereira had professional fights overall, it was hard not to favour Adesanya to avenge those losses, particularly as the fight appeared to have been put together purely for that reason.

For the majority of the bout, it looked like business as usual for Adesanya. Not only did he largely control the action, but he even outstruck Pereira at points, most notably wobbling him in the first round.

While a finish didn’t seem forthcoming for the champ, he did appear to be on his way to a decision win – until he threw a leg kick in the fifth round that Pereira checked.

The check caused Adesanya to stumble, and that was the opening ‘Poatan’ needed. He thumped his foe with his trademark heavy left hook, and then opened up on him with a flurry, stopping him in a truly stunning comeback finish.

Essentially, the finish meant that the bout was a lot like their second meeting in the kickboxing ring – a fight largely dominated by Adesanya, but finished by Pereira. So will lightning strike for the fourth time in this rematch?

It’s honestly hard to say. Ignoring any x-factors for now, it’s hard to really guess which man might have the advantage.

On one hand, it’s pretty clear that Adesanya is perhaps the more varied and skilled fighter in all areas. Not only did he land more strikes on Pereira, but he also looked to have a major edge on the Brazilian in the grappling department.

However, ‘Poatan’ seemingly packs the ultimate equalizer in his punching power, meaning that he only needs one clean blow to end a fight.

It’s hard to see exactly what Adesanya can do differently here. The only change he really needs to make to win is to avoid Pereira’s big punches, but whether he can do that over five rounds is highly debatable.

Add in the fact that ‘Poatan’ will logically have a psychological advantage over ‘The Last Stylebender’ here, and it’s actually difficult to imagine Adesanya regaining his title.

It may well be the case that the former champ can claim the gold back if someone else – Robert Whittaker perhaps – can dethrone Pereira in the future. For now, though, it feels like ‘Poatan’ has the dreaded ‘Indian sign’ over Adesanya.

The Pick: Pereira via third round KO

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#2. UFC welterweight bout: Gilbert Burns vs. Jorge Masvidal

Jorge Masvidal will be desperate for a win when he faces Gilbert Burns

Jorge Masvidal remains one of the UFC’s most bankable stars, but to say that ‘Gamebred’ has his back to the wall in this bout with Gilbert Burns would be an understatement.

Of course, the Miami favorite isn’t going to be cut if he loses, but given that he hasn’t actually won a fight since beating Nate Diaz back in 2019, a defeat here would definitely end his run as a top-level contender.

Last time we saw Masvidal, he was outpointed comprehensively by bitter rival Colby Covington over five rounds. Worryingly, Covington deployed the same gameplan to stifle ‘Gamebred’ as Kamaru Usman did in their first clash in 2020 – showing that Masvidal had been unable to learn from his errors.

Worryingly for the veteran, Burns is more than capable of deploying a similar tactic. The Brazilian isn’t the wrestler that Usman and Covington are, but as he showed in his 2021 win over Stephen Thompson, he’s more than happy to use his strength and grappling to smother a foe in the clinch.

Where ‘Durinho’ might fall down here is his willingness to trade off with his opponents. Burns packs power in his punches, can knock his foes out, and is more than willing to throw down. Against a boxer as sharp as Masvidal, that might be a mistake.

After all, he was knocked out by Usman in their 2020 bout, was tagged badly by Khamzat Chimaev, and was also stopped by Dan Hooker, although that fight was back in 2018.

Despite this, Masvidal is probably still in trouble here. Even if he begins to land heavily on Burns, the Brazilian should be able to lean back on his grappling, something that ‘Gamebred’ likely won’t have an answer to.

After all, the clinch-and-takedown approach was also responsible for his defeat to Demian Maia in 2017, and his loss to Benson Henderson even earlier, too.

Masvidal can definitely grapple, but wrestling simply isn’t his wheelhouse, and at the age of 38, it may be too late for him to close that hole in his game.

‘Gamebred’ can be expected to give Burns a couple of scares, particularly if he can draw him into a brawl, but overall, it’s hard to imagine him winning this fight. Expect a largely stifling affair that sees Burns grind his way to a win, much to the chagrin of the Miami crowd.

The Pick: Burns via decision

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#3. UFC 287: The Main Card

Adrian Yanez will be hopeful of picking up his biggest win to date over Rob Font

In a huge bantamweight fight, Rob Font faces hot prospect Adrian Yanez. Yanez has thus far destroyed any foe put in front of him to go 5-0 in the UFC, but it’s safe to say Font will be his most difficult opponent to date.

The Boston native is battle-tested, and has wins over the likes of Cody Garbrandt and Marlon Moraes. Overall, he should come into this one as the favorite.

Despite this, Yanez might have the edge here. He’s remarkably explosive, packs serious power in his punches, and most importantly, will only be giving up an inch of reach to Font, who usually fights behind his jab using that length to his advantage. The pick, then, is Yanez via decision.

Kevin Holland takes on Santiago Ponzinibbio in a welterweight clash. This one should be a thriller as both men are aggressive to a fault and both possess a serious killer instinct.

Of the two, it’s arguable that Ponzinibbio has more punching power. 16 of his 29 career wins have come via knockout, including six in the octagon. Despite this, he hasn’t quite looked the same fighter since his hiatus from 2018 to 2021 due to injuries. ‘Gente Boa’ still packs power, but he looks slower than he once did and now struggles to find a rhythm.

That might drop him in trouble with ‘The Trailblazer’, who tends to push a nasty pace and attacks his opponents in unorthodox ways. Holland hasn’t quite been on the best form recently, losing his last two fights, but he’s always willing to throw down and has skills in all areas.

Holland will need to be careful in this fight due to Ponzinibbio’s power, but overall, it feels like he’ll be able to outwork him, probably earning a decision.

Finally, teenage sensation Raul Rosas Jr, who is still just 18 years old, takes on Christian Rodriguez in a bantamweight clash.

Whether this fight belongs on a pay-per-view main card is a fair debate, but it’s clear that Dana White and company are high on ‘El Nino Problema’, particularly after he whitewashed Jay Perrin in aggressive fashion in December.

Can Rodriguez test him further? ‘CeeRod’ is seven years older than his foe at 25, but he also only has two more professional fights than the teenager, and doesn’t seem to possess the same explosive abilities.

Rosas Jr is undoubtedly ripe for an upset loss, but it just doesn’t feel like Rodriguez is the guy to do it. He may prove tougher to finish than Perrin, but the pick is Rosas Jr via submission.

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#4. UFC 287: The Prelims

Picks in bold

UFC middleweight bout: Kelvin Gastelum vs. Chris Curtis

UFC strawweight bout: Michelle Waterson vs. Luana Pinheiro

UFC heavyweight bout: Chris Barnett vs. Chase Sherman

UFC middleweight bout: Gerald Meerschaert vs. Joe Pyfer

UFC strawweight bout: Cynthia Calvillo vs. Lupita Godinez

UFC catchweight bout: Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Trey Ogden

UFC featherweight bout: Shayilan Nuerdanbieke vs. Steve Garcia

UFC strawweight bout: Jacqueline Amorim vs. Sam Hughes