UFC Predictions: UFC 288: Aljamain Sterling vs. Henry Cejudo

This weekend sees the world’s biggest MMA promotion hit Newark, New Jersey, for a huge pay-per-view in the form of UFC 288.

UFC 288: Aljamain Sterling vs. Henry Cejudo features a bantamweight title bout in the headliner, while the co-main event features two of the world’s top welterweights facing off.

With a deep undercard featuring some of the promotion’s more underrated fighters, this is an event that should not be missed.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 288: Aljamain Sterling vs. Henry Cejudo.

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#1. UFC bantamweight title: Aljamain Sterling vs. Henry Cejudo

Can Aljamain Sterling turn back the challenge of Henry Cejudo and retain his bantamweight crown?

While it isn’t garnering the attention of Jon Jones vs. Ciryl Gane or Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira, it’s arguable that this bantamweight title clash is the best UFC title fight this year so far.

Despite making two successful defenses of his title, Aljamain Sterling remains curiously underrated by the fans. It’s true that ‘Funk Master’ won his crown in controversial fashion, beating Petr Yan via disqualification after being essentially knocked out by an illegal knee, but he then clearly beat ‘No Mercy’ in their rematch.

Most recently, he dispatched T.J. Dillashaw in violent fashion, although the former bantamweight champion was admittedly hampered by a shoulder injury.

Sterling is a fantastic grappler with a powerful wrestling game and a truly venomous submission arsenal, particularly if he can take his opponent’s back. He’s not the greatest striker, but he’s more than willing, and his range and kicking ability makes him a handful for any opponent.

It’s safe to say that this weekend should present his toughest test, though.

Not only did Henry Cejudo never lose the bantamweight title in the octagon, instead relinquishing it after defeating Dominick Cruz in 2020, he’s arguably one of the most accomplished fighters of all time.

‘Triple C’ came into the promotion with a lot of fanfare as a 2008 Olympic gold medallist in freestyle wrestling, and after a patchy start, ended up upsetting Demetrious Johnson to claim flyweight gold in 2018.

From there, he defeated then-bantamweight champ Dillashaw via TKO in a stunning performance and became a simultaneous double champion by stopping Marlon Moraes a few months later.

While he was once somewhat one-dimensional, before he stepped away three years ago, Cejudo looked difficult to stop. His world-class wrestling was now matched with a dangerous striking game, particularly in the clinch, and his toughness was unquestionable, too.

The big question here, realistically, is how much ‘Triple C’ still has left in the tank. At 36 years old he’s probably still just about in his prime years, but with three years on the shelf behind him, it’s fair to ask whether he could’ve become rusty.

To add to this, with just two wins at 135 pounds, it might be fair to question how successful his wrestling will be against a great grappler like Sterling. Sure, in a pure wrestling match, Cejudo would probably win, but whether he can outscramble ‘The Funk Master’ in an MMA bout is a legitimate question.

‘Triple C’ is obviously dangerous on the feet, but even then, the only fighter he knocked out standing was a seriously depleted Dillashaw. Sterling, of course, has taken heavy shots from the likes of Yan and Pedro Munhoz and has only ever been knocked out once.

Overall, this is a remarkably difficult fight to pick, purely because it’s hard to say whether Cejudo’s reputation can hold up to three years out of the game, particularly against a champion as good as Sterling.

In the end, it’s just difficult to pick ‘Triple C’ based on two excellent showings at 135 pounds, especially when the most recent one took place in May 2020. The pick, therefore, is Sterling via decision.

The Pick: Sterling via unanimous decision

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#2. UFC welterweight bout: Belal Muhammad vs. Gilbert Burns

Gilbert Burns will hope to turn back the challenge of Belal Muhammad this weekend

Initially, UFC 288’s co-main event would’ve been a lightweight contender’s clash between Charles Oliveira and Beneil Dariush. That fight went by-the-by when Oliveira picked up an injury. But as per usual, the promotion has pulled out a serious rabbit from their hat.

Realistically, both Belal Muhammad and Gilbert Burns could lay claim to a shot at the UFC welterweight title, but with Colby Covington instead positioned as the top contender to Leon Edwards’ title, they’re set to do battle here.

Will the winner finally get the title shot they deserve? In the world of the UFC, it’s hard to say, but unless the fight stinks the building out, it seems highly likely.

Muhammad is currently riding a nine-fight unbeaten streak dating back to 2019. A powerful wrestler, ‘Remember the Name’ prefers to grind his foes down in the clinch or on the ground, but he’s also adept at punching and stopped the previously unbeaten Sean Brady in his last fight.

Burns is actually a similar fighter from a stylistic standpoint. While ‘Durinho’ is widely recognized as one of the better Brazilian jiu-jitsu artists at 170 pounds, his last few wins have seen him largely stifle his foes, including Jorge Masvidal and Stephen Thompson.

Like Muhammad, the Brazilian isn’t a technically great striker, but he definitely packs serious power. He dropped Kamaru Usman in their fight, hurt Tyron Woodley standing and also rocked Khamzat Chimaev on multiple occasions.

In terms of picking a winner, three things are worth looking at. Firstly, will the fact that ‘Durinho’ only fought Masvidal four weeks ago come into play? Neither man will have had a proper training camp for this bout, but Burns may be more primed given that recent outing.

Secondly, can Burns put Muhammad on his back? If he can do this, then it’s very likely that he’ll win, based on the fact that ‘Remember the Name’ rarely gets taken down, particularly by a grappler as good as ‘Durinho’.

Thirdly, if the fight goes deep, does it favor Muhammad? Both men have only been five rounds once, but Muhammad looked less tired than Burns did when he went 25 minutes, and ‘Durinho’ also looked exhausted when he fought Chimaev.

In the end, though, it’s hard not to favor Burns here. He appears to be in the form of his life, is the more dangerous finisher, and may be more ready for war after fighting so recently. It’ll be a close one to call, but the pick is ‘Durinho’ via submission.

The Pick: Burns via second-round submission

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#3. UFC 288: The Main Card

Jessica Andrade stars on UFC 288's main card

In a strawweight clash, Jessica Andrade takes on Yan Xiaonan. While it’s unlikely that the winner of this one will fight for the strawweight title in the near future, it’s still a key clash between two of the 115-pound division’s top fighters.

It’s also a tricky fight to pick. Andrade remains technically flawed in many ways, and she can also be dealt with on the ground. However, ‘Bate Estaca’ packs a terrifying amount of power into her punches, and few fighters can stand up to it.

With that said, Xiaonan will enjoy a sizeable height and range advantage here, and she does have a stiff jab as well as some slick striking skills. She’ll need to be careful to avoid a big haymaker, but if she plays it safe, this should be her fight to lose. Xiaonan via decision is the pick.

In a featherweight bout, Movsar Evloev faces Bryce Mitchell. The winner of this one will almost certainly advance into title contention, as Mitchell is ranked at No.11 with Evloev sitting one spot above him at No.10.

Evloev remains unbeaten in the octagon at 6-0, although he has yet to finish an opponent and hasn’t fought in nearly a year. This is also a worrying style match for him, as Mitchell is a dangerous grappler who carries more of a submission threat, despite suffering a loss in his last fight.

Overall, this one is difficult to pick, but given Mitchell has never fought a wrestler as good as Evloev, the pick is the Russian via decision. To see Mitchell submit him, though, would not be a shocker.

Finally, in a featherweight bout, Kron Gracie squares off against Charles Jourdain. This will be Gracie’s first fight since October 2019. Given he’s 34 years old, that should be worrying. He’s a brilliant grappler, naturally, but despite being a willing striker, he’s also very hittable.

Jourdain isn’t the best fighter in his own right, but remarkably, he’s fought on nine occasions since Gracie last stepped into the octagon. He has lost four of those fights, but he’s won four, too.

Basically, if Gracie can get ‘Air’ to the ground early then he could win, but if Jourdain can block his early takedowns, then he should be able to take out a tired Kron later on. The pick, simply because it’s been so long since Gracie’s last fight, is Jourdain via TKO.

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#4. UFC 288: The Prelims

Picks in bold

UFC lightweight bout: Drew Dober vs. Matt Frevola

UFC light heavyweight bout: Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Devin Clark

UFC welterweight bout: Khaos Williams vs. Rolando Bedoya

UFC strawweight bout: Marina Rodriguez vs. Virna Jandiroba

UFC heavyweight bout: Braxton Smith vs. Parker Porter

UFC middleweight bout: Phil Hawes vs. Ikram Aliskerov

UFC flyweight bout: Rafael Estevam vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov

UFC middleweight bout: Joseph Holmes vs. Claudio Ribeiro

UFC bantamweight bout: Daniel Santos vs. Johnny Munoz Jr