UFC Predictions: UFC 294: Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski 2

The UFC travels to Abu Dhabi this weekend for what undoubtedly promises to be one of the biggest cards of 2023.

UFC 294 has been hastily changed at its top end, but it remains a fascinating, star-filled event with plenty to offer.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 294: Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski 2.

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#1. UFC lightweight title: Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski

Can Islam Makhachev beat Alexander Volkanovski for the second time this year? [Image Credit: @islam_makhachev on Instagram]

As everyone is well aware, this headliner should initially have seen Islam Makhachev defending his crown against the man he took it from, top contender Charles Oliveira.

However, with ‘Do Bronx’ sidelined with an injury, rather than replace him with another top-ranked lightweight, the UFC have instead turned to another familiar foe for the Dagestani.

Featherweight kingpin Alexander Volkanovski first faced Makhachev in a champ vs. champ bout back in February, and pushed him all the way en route to a tight decision loss. Many people believed Makhachev had done just enough to win, but equally, a number believed ‘Alexander the Great’ deserved the nod too.

Makhachev has not fought since that bout, while Volkanovski returned to 145 pounds successfully, dispatching Yair Rodriguez via TKO in the summer. Essentially, he looked as good as he’d ever done.

The big question here, then, is whether Volkanovski can have made the adjustments needed to beat a man who outpointed him less than a year ago.

The story of that fight was essentially that Volkanovski was the better technical striker, but he couldn’t really hurt Makhachev badly and ate a lot of heavy shots from the Dagestani in return.

On the ground, meanwhile, Makhachev was able to largely control the Australian, even if he didn’t come close to a finish of any kind. In many ways, it looked like he chose to fight ‘Alexander the Great’ standing in order to prove a point, something he need not have done had he followed a different gameplan.

The big issue for Volkanovski here is preparation time. The featherweight champ is renowned for his expert gameplans and leaves no stone unturned in his training camps. Here, however, he’s barely had two weeks to come up with anything. Sure, he fought Makhachev before, but he clearly needed to make adjustments that he probably won’t now have planned for.

Makhachev, meanwhile, may have been preparing for Oliveira, but he’s still the more powerful striker and the superior grappler, and if he chooses to use that wrestling more than he did the first time, it’s a bit difficult to see Volkanovski stopping him.

Overall this should be another fantastic bout between two true greats. However, the fact that it’s coming on this kind of late notice is disappointing, and isn’t likely to lead to another classic as we saw in February.

Instead, it seems more likely to end in Makhachev’s favour, if not by a finish, then by a larger margin than before.

The Pick: Makhachev via decision

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#2. UFC middleweight bout: Kamaru Usman vs. Khamzat Chimaev

Can Khamzat Chimaev get past the toughest test of his career this weekend [Image Credit: @khamzat_chimaev on Instagram]

It isn’t often that the UFC is able to produce a fight on short notice that is actually better than the original, but that’s the case here, as they’ve pulled a real rabbit out of the hat.

Initially, this co-headliner would’ve seen Khamzat Chimaev taking on Paulo Costa in what would’ve been the first real test for ‘Borz’ at 185 pounds. However, last week, Costa was ruled out with an injury, and it looked like Chimaev would miss out on a fight altogether.

Instead, Dana White abruptly announced that former welterweight kingpin Kamaru Usman would be replacing him, and so we’ve ended up with one of the most intriguing bouts of 2023. More importantly, a middleweight title shot is reportedly on the line, too.

Put simply, there are a ridiculous number of questions around this one, and the result should hinge on how they are answered.

Firstly, we know Chimaev can cope with a move to 185 pounds relatively easily. He sparked out Gerald Meerschaert in his other bout at middleweight and has often struggled to hit welterweight, particularly in his last fight.

That fight should’ve seen him face Nate Diaz, but when he missed weight spectacularly, he choked out Kevin Holland instead. Of course, that leads to another question: ‘Borz’ has not fought since that bout, which took place over a year ago. So will he be rusty?

For Usman, there are an equal amount of question marks. Rewind just two years ago, and ‘The Nigerian Nightmare’ was widely considered not only the best welterweight in the world, but the best pound-for-pound fighter too.

However, his two losses to Leon Edwards – particularly the second, which saw him largely beaten in all areas – have ruined his aura of invincibility.

Usman is also 36 years old now, meaning his athletic prime could be ending soon, and he’s never fought at 185 pounds before, despite the fact that judging by his social media, he looks huge right now.

Add in the late notice for him, and it’s easy to imagine him having trouble with a bigger, more well-prepared Chimaev.

With that said, ‘Borz’ has never fought anyone close to as good as Usman before. He struggled to get past Gilbert Burns, who ‘The Nigerian Nightmare’ destroyed in 2021, and – admittedly thanks to his prodigious abilities – we don’t know all that much about how he fares under fire.

Despite this, it’s hard to look past him here. He should be the bigger man on the night, and his incredible wrestling should largely nullify one of Usman’s biggest strengths. Add in Usman’s advanced age, late notice and the fact that he hasn’t won since 2021, and it’s easy to envision things going badly for him here.

The Pick: Chimaev via first-round TKO

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#3. UFC 294: The Main Card

Magomed Ankalaev could well be the best 205lber in the world right now [Image Credit: @ankalaev_magomed on Instagram]

In a light heavyweight clash, Magomed Ankalaev takes on Johnny Walker. In an alternative world, Ankalaev would be the UFC light heavyweight champion right now, as he arguably deserved to beat Jan Blachowicz for the vacant title last year in a bout that ended in a draw.

Overall, Ankalaev has won nine of his 11 trips to the octagon, blending a phenomenal wrestling game with brutal striking. He’s often considered dull to watch, but that doesn’t make him any less effective.

Walker has the tendency to be able to make any fight exciting. A true wildman, he’s calmed the act slightly these days and looks better for it, beating the likes of Paul Craig and Anthony Smith in recent months.

The issue for him here is that for as dangerous as he is on offense, he simply isn’t the most durable fighter. Therefore, it’s hard to imagine him having success against a fighter as technically excellent as Ankalaev. The pick is Ankalaev via second-round TKO.

In a middleweight fight, Ikram Aliskerov faces Warlley Alves. Alves has taken this fight on late notice, replacing Nassourdine Imavov, and that’s worrying for a couple of reasons.

Firstly, the TUF Brazil 3 winner hasn’t fought at 185 pounds since his reality show win, and has hardly been on the best run as of late, winning just one of three fights.

Secondly, Imavov is a top 15-ranked middleweight, meaning that the UFC clearly has high hopes for Aliskerov, who debuted by knocking out Phil Hawes in May. Overall, he’s 14-1 with his only loss coming to Khamzat Chimaev.

Given Alves’ struggles with durability, smaller size and late notice, it’s very hard to imagine him finding success here. The pick is Aliskerov via first-round KO.

Finally, in a bantamweight tilt, Said Nurmagomedov faces Muin Gafurov. This essentially looks like a way to rebuild Nurmagomedov after his upset loss to Jonathan Martinez earlier this year. Gafurov has fought once in the octagon, losing a decision to John Castaneda in June, while Nurmagomedov was looking like a genuine contender prior to that loss to Martinez.

Gafurov has never been finished, which means it won’t be easy for the highly-touted Dagestani, so the pick is Nurmagomedov via decision.

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#4. UFC 294: The Prelims

Picks in bold

UFC flyweight bout: Tim Elliott vs. Muhammad Mokaev

UFC lightweight bout: Mohammad Yahya vs. Trevor Peek

UFC bantamweight bout: Javid Basharat vs. Victor Henry

UFC middleweight bout: Abu Azaitar vs. Sedriques Dumas

UFC lightweight bout: Mike Breeden vs. Anshul Jubli

UFC featherweight bout: Nathaniel Wood vs. Muhammad Naimov

UFC strawweight bout: Victoria Dudakova vs. Jinh Yu Frey

UFC middleweight bout: Sharabutdin Magomedov vs. Bruno Silva