UFC Predictions: UFC 296: Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington

This weekend sees the UFC head to Las Vegas for its final pay-per-view of 2023, and it looks like a good one.

UFC 296: Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington not only features two title bouts, but it also has some big fights in a number of weight classes.

With that said, here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 296: Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington.

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#1. UFC welterweight title: Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington

This fight has taken some criticism in the months leading up to this event, and to be truthful, it’s somewhat understandable.

At this point, nobody can argue with the status of Leon Edwards as one of the UFC’s pound-for-pound best. After all, he holds two wins over Kamaru Usman, and while his 2022 knockout win over ‘The Nigerian Nightmare’ will go down in legend, his more recent win was arguably the more impressive.

‘Rocky’ basically outfought Usman in every area and didn’t even struggle to handle his brutal wrestling game. It was a real eye-opener when you consider that the resident of Birmingham, England, came into the promotion as a kickboxer.

Whether Colby Covington really deserves this shot over the likes of Belal Muhammad and Shavkat Rakhmonov is debatable, though.

‘Chaos’ is definitely a proven entity in the octagon, and his big mouth has also made him a star to a certain level, even if he hasn’t talked too much trash coming into this one.

However, he also hasn’t fought since his March 2022 win over Jorge Masvidal, who has since hung up his gloves, and in fact, that win over ‘Gamebred’ stands as his only one since 2020.

At his best, Covington is obviously a great fighter. A stifling wrestler, albeit not the strongest in the division, ‘Chaos’ really shines when he’s able to push a torrid pace.

His striking isn’t technically great, but it’s hard to stop him when he keeps pushing forward swinging, and that usually allows him to close the distance to abuse his foes in the clinch or take them down.

That style has taken him past excellent strikers like Masvidal and Robbie Lawler, but will it be enough to get him past Edwards? In all honesty, it doesn’t seem likely.

‘Rocky’ doesn’t carry the same knockout power as those afore-mentioned pair, but his grasp of range and movement is far superior, particularly to the older version of Lawler that Covington defeated.

If ‘Chaos’ tries to wade in on Edwards like that, it feels likely that the UK-based fighter will simply step out of range and catch him with something violent on the counter.

If Covington purely focuses on wrestling, meanwhile, he could probably land some takedowns, but it’s unlikely that he’ll be able to stifle Edwards for five rounds, particularly when you consider that Usman failed to do so.

Overall, then, ‘Rocky’ seems too well-rounded for Covington at this stage, and the X-factors such as Covington’s lengthy layoff, Edwards’ own confidence, and the fact that ‘Rocky’ doesn’t seem annoyed by Covington’s trash talk favor him too.

It won’t be easy for Edwards purely because of Covington’s wild toughness and willingness to push an insane pace, but the pick is ‘Rocky’ via late stoppage.

The Pick: Edwards via fourth-round TKO

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#2. UFC flyweight title: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Brandon Royval

Incredibly, this fight is the first flyweight title bout to not involve either Deiveson Figueiredo or Brandon Moreno since way back in 2019.

The UFC could easily have booked a rematch between new titleholder Alexandre Pantoja and Moreno, who he took the belt from earlier this year, as their clash was one of the best of 2023. However, the fact that they’ve chosen not to actually feels refreshing.

Instead, it’s Brandon Royval who will take his shot at glory this weekend. It’s hard to dispute the idea that ‘Raw Dawg’ hasn’t earned his shot, either. Since losing to Pantoja back in 2021, he’s taken out three foes and has finished his last two to take his overall octagon record to 5-2.

Royval is a wild, aggressive fighter, and while his technical skills and poise have gotten better over the years, he’s still at his best when he’s on the attack.

‘Raw Dawg’ is more than willing to push a torrid pace, but interestingly, it was that style that got him into trouble when he faced ‘The Cannibal’ for the first time.

Royval essentially went toe to toe and hold for hold with the Brazilian in the first round, but appeared to slow down slightly in the second, and that was all that Pantoja needed to secure a dominant position and finally a rear-naked choke.

So how good is the champ? He isn’t the most explosive athlete in the division, but his fundamentals are brilliant, he has no real weaknesses, and as we saw in his title win, he’s insanely tough and durable – something that can be seen by the fact that he’s never been finished in any of his five losses.

The big question around ‘The Cannibal’ is whether his war with Moreno took anything out of him. Pantoja suffered some serious damage in that fight and looked exhausted by the end. Even though he won, it was the type of fight that could catch up to him in the future.

However, this doesn’t feel like that moment. Unless Royval can catch him in an early rush, it’s likely that he’ll simply run out of steam down the stretch and allow the Brazilian to take over.

Essentially, this should be a ton of fun to watch, but it should also follow the pattern of their previous fight, with a back-and-forth early portion before ‘The Cannibal’ secures a submission for the victory.

The Pick: Pantoja via third-round submission

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#3. UFC 296: The Main Card

In a welterweight clash, Shavkat Rakhmonov faces Stephen Thompson. This one has been a long time in the making, and promises to be exciting too.

Of these two fighters, there’s no doubt that Rakhmonov has the hype on him right now. ‘Nomad’ is unbeaten at 17-0 and has five straight wins in the octagon, all via finish. He can strike, he can grapple, and he has a nasty killer instinct too. Essentially, he appears to have no weaknesses.

However, we haven’t seen him up against a striker with the technical skills of ‘Wonderboy’ before, and despite being an older fighter now, Thompson is still capable of picking any opponent apart.

This one is interesting because ‘Wonderboy’ has only really lost to stifling wrestlers in recent years, dropping decisions to Gilbert Burns and Belal Muhammad. Rakhmonov really isn’t like those fighters, but he brings his own issues for Thompson in that he’s got a longer reach and is a technically good striker in his own right.

Overall this one could go either way, but the momentum lies with ‘Nomad’, and so it feels likely that he’ll score with something nasty and put Thompson away late on. The pick is Rakhmonov via TKO.

In an odd lightweight bout, Tony Ferguson returns to take on Paddy Pimblett. A lot of fans have criticized this booking, as Ferguson probably ought to have retired after losing his last six bouts in a row.

However, that’s on ‘El Cucuy’ rather than the UFC, and Pimblett is coming off a year on the shelf after a below-par performance in his last fight. He’s also a popular young star, so why shouldn’t the promotion look to build him up?

In their primes, there’s no doubt that Ferguson would’ve smashed ‘The Baddy’. He would’ve held the advantage in literally every area. At this point, though, ‘El Cucuy’ looks beyond done. His durability is shot, he can’t wrestle like he once did, and his confidence seems shot.

With that considered, the pick here is Pimblett via submission.

Finally, Vicente Luque faces Ian Machado Garry in a welterweight bout. This one should be interesting as it’s a clash of two of the most dangerous fighters out there at 170 pounds.

Garry has become somewhat of a controversial figure in recent weeks due to his personal life, but in the UFC, there’s no denying he’s been brilliant. ‘The Future’ is 13-0, has won six straight in the octagon, and has the confidence and swagger needed to reach the top.

The only place he’s been largely untested in is on the ground, but whether Luque is the opponent to test him there is debatable. ‘The Silent Assassin’ is a fantastic grappler, but he also prefers to stand and bang, and against a striker as pinpoint as Garry, that could be an error.

Luque does have a lot of power, and there’s no doubt that if he lands on the Irishman, Garry could be in trouble. However, the momentum lies with the younger fighter, and Luque is not the most durable fighter. The pick, therefore, is Garry via TKO.

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#4. UFC 296: The Prelims

Picks in bold

UFC featherweight bout: Josh Emmett vs. Bryce Mitchell

UFC bantamweight bout: Irene Aldana vs. Karol Rosa

UFC bantamweight bout: Cody Garbrandt vs. Brian Kelleher

UFC flyweight bout: Casey O’Neill vs. Ariane Lipski

UFC light-heavyweight bout: Alonzo Menifield vs. Dustin Jacoby

UFC flyweight bout: Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Cody Durden

UFC featherweight bout: Andre Fili vs. Lucas Almeida

UFC heavyweight bout: Martin Buday vs. Shamil Gaziev

UFC welterweight bout: Randy Brown vs. Muslim Salikhov