UFC Predictions: UFC 299: Sean O’Malley vs. Marlon Vera 2

The UFC heads to Miami this weekend for a pay-per-view that looks to have the potential to be one of the best of 2024.

UFC 299: Sean O’Malley vs. Marlon Vera 2 features so many great fights that a handful of the preliminary bouts could probably headline a UFC Fight Night event. Put simply, this is a loaded card that cannot be missed.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 299: Sean O’Malley vs. Marlon Vera 2.

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#1. UFC bantamweight title: Sean O’Malley vs. Marlon Vera 2

Outside of Conor McGregor, it’s probably hard to find a fighter who was able to rise to the top of the UFC in such a linear fashion as Sean O’Malley.

Following a flashy win on Dana White’s Contender Series, ‘Sugar’ was positioned as a potential superstar of the future right from his octagon debut back in 2017.

Realistically, he has lived up to all the billing, working his way up the rankings slowly and defeating incrementally more difficult foes until he edged out former titleholder Petr Yan in 2022.

From there, O’Malley claimed the bantamweight title in devastating fashion by knocking out Aljamain Sterling last August, essentially reaching his destiny in record time.

However, it hasn’t always been plain sailing for ‘Sugar’. He’s effectively been derailed twice. Once was due to a positive drug test in 2018, and the other was when he was defeated by Marlon Vera in 2020.

It’s that defeat that has led the UFC to put this title fight together, rather than matching O’Malley with a higher-ranked contender like Merab Dvalishvili or Cory Sandhagen.

So will lightning strike twice this weekend, making ‘Chito’ an unlikely champion? It’s worth looking back at that first fight to decide.

Firstly, it is well worth noting that ‘Sugar’ has always claimed that a foot injury led to his defeat, and he’s even stated that he doesn’t count it as a loss.

Put simply, that’s largely nonsense. Sure, O’Malley’s injury definitely didn’t help him, but it was basically caused by Vera hitting him with some nasty low kicks. More to the point, ‘Chito’ still needed to finish him, and did so violently with a series of horrific elbows.

It was hardly a surprise given the Ecuadorian’s penchant for finishing. In many ways, Vera is like a bantamweight Charles Oliveira. He’s not the best defensive fighter – although his durability is ridiculous – but he has unbelievable finishing skills in every single area.

Of his 23 career wins, in fact, just five have come via decision, making him almost uniquely dangerous.

Given that nobody has even come close to stopping Vera, it’s unlikely that ‘Sugar’ will knock him out. But can he win? Absolutely. Evidence of that was seen when the Ecuadorian was picked apart over five rounds by Sandhagen in 2023.

O’Malley is still the cleaner striker of the two, particularly with his hands, and if he can keep Vera at distance and snipe at him, then he can probably pick him off. After all, that was what happened early in their first fight before Vera’s kicks hurt his leg.

If ‘Sugar’ decides to brawl, though, then despite his own heavy power, he’s probably going to lose. Vera’s gunslinging style means that anyone entering into a firefight with him is probably going to be in trouble, so basically, the outcome here is largely on the champ.

If O’Malley fights smartly – and perhaps in a less entertaining fashion than usual – then he should retain his title. If he listens to the fans and gets reckless, though, then a new champ should be crowned. Overall, the former feels more likely, but equally, the latter would not be a shock.

The Pick: O’Malley via decision

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#2. UFC lightweight bout: Dustin Poirier vs. Benoit Saint Denis

Over the last few years, one issue the UFC has had has been getting rising stars who don’t have the biggest names fights against proven, top-level talent. That’s why this lightweight bout feels so fresh and special.

Dustin Poirier has undoubtedly been one of the promotion’s biggest stars now for the last few years. A reliable headliner as far back as 2012, ‘The Diamond’ was catapulted onto another level in 2021 when he defeated Conor McGregor in back-to-back bouts.

Since then, he’s actually only won once, beating Michael Chandler in an instant classic in 2022 and falling to both Charles Oliveira and Justin Gaethje.

At the age of 35, Poirier’s time at the top of the mountain may now be waning, particularly given his longevity – 2024 is his 15th year as a professional. Therefore, with his star power, it would’ve been easy for him to simply demand so-called ‘money fights’ or special attraction types from the UFC.

Instead, though, he’s agreed to fight an opponent who seems like one of the most dangerous prospects in some time.

While it’s been largely forgotten now, Benoit Saint Denis actually debuted in controversial fashion, taking what amounted to a dangerous beating from Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos in a 2021 welterweight bout.

Most observers figured he’d wash out of the promotion after such a poor beginning, but instead, the Frenchman dropped to 155 pounds and has been on an utter tear since.

‘God of War’ has now destroyed his last five opponents, finishing them all before the final buzzer. Seemingly possessing lethal skills in all areas, Saint Denis throws his strikes with violent force, and on the ground, he looks to smash his opponents until they simply give up a submission.

Despite his hot run, it’s fair to say that Saint Denis has never fought anyone quite like Poirier before. Not only is ‘The Diamond’ more battle tested, but his style has proved a difficult one for most opponents to crack over recent years.

Essentially, Poirier is a pressure-boxer of the highest calibre in the UFC. He usually forces his opponents onto their back foot, not giving them a second to breathe, and when he senses that they’re open, he’ll unload with relentless combinations until they’re done.

Where the former interim titleholder can be questioned at this stage is with regards to his durability. Poirier does not have a glass jaw at all, having only been KO’d three times, but he has absorbed a tremendous amount of punishment during his career.

More worryingly, the head kick knockout that Gaethje dispatched him with was the kind of finish that could definitely change a career for the worse.

If Poirier comes in at his best, realistically, this should be his fight to lose. Even though Saint Denis has improved and looks like a beast now, he’s still the same fighter that took a beating from Zaleski, and Poirier is more than capable of dishing similar out.

However, it’s impossible to count out ‘The God of War’, especially if Poirier is getting a little older now, as the Frenchman is such a deadly finisher.

The smart money is on ‘The Diamond’, but to see him lose badly wouldn’t be a stunner.

The Pick: Poirier via second-round TKO

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#3. UFC 299: The Main Card

In a potentially wild welterweight clash, Kevin Holland welcomes Michael ‘Venom’ Page to the octagon for the first time.

Page is probably arriving in the UFC a little too late to make a real mark on the 170-pound division, as he’s now 36 years old and the unstoppable aura he once had has faded slightly over the years.

Despite this, ‘Venom’ is still a remarkable striker. Fighting in a style reminiscent of the legendary Anderson Silva, he throws low-percentage shots, will dance around and drop his hands, and generally attempts to draw his opponents in to land nasty counter shots.

He’s not been given a softball debut by any means, though. Holland is dangerous in all areas, will enjoy a slight reach advantage, and is a highly underrated grappler who is capable of catching his foes with chokes.

Where ‘Trailblazer’ may struggle here is with the unorthodox timing of Page. Formerly a point-fighter in traditional martial arts, ‘Venom’ could be compared in some ways to Stephen Thompson, who defeated Holland in a thriller in 2022.

Overall this should be a tight one to pick, but it feels likely that Page will pick Holland off in entertaining fashion. The pick is Page via decision.

Also at welterweight, Gilbert Burns returns to give prospect Jack Della Maddalena his toughest test to date.

Australia’s Della Maddalena is still unbeaten in the octagon at 6-0, with his biggest win coming over Kevin Holland. Largely a boxer with quick hands and a lot of power, the big question around him is probably his ground game, although he did submit Randy Brown last year.

Burns is likely to test him there. A top-class Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, ‘Durinho’ has powerful takedowns and if he can get an opponent down, his fireplug-like frame allows him to control and thrive.

Where Burns has struggled before has been with heavier hitters like Kamaru Usman and Khamzat Chimaev. However, it is worth noting that those fighters have far better wrestling and takedown defense than Della Maddalena is likely to boast.

Overall Burns should probably be favoured here. Della Maddalena is making a huge step up and there’s no real evidence that Burns is quite past his prime yet. If the Aussie can catch him clean early on then he could definitely pull off an upset, but the pick overall is Burns via decision.

Finally, in what should be a thriller, former champion Petr Yan faces Song Yadong in a bantamweight bout. Yan has not fought in almost a year now and has not won since October 2022, but at his best, he’s a truly special fighter with razor-sharp combinations, brutal power, endless cardio and underrated grappling.

Yadong is definitely on the best run of his career, winning five of his last six bouts. ‘The Kung Fu Kid’ is also a dangerous, concussive striker, but he’ll need to produce a special showing to win here. He’s probably slower than ‘No Mercy’, doesn’t hit quite as hard, and isn’t as durable either.

This one could go either way purely because it’s hard to know how much ‘No Mercy’ has left, but it’s likely that his year off will have reset his batteries somewhat. Therefore, the pick is Yan via third-round TKO.

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#4. UFC 299: The Prelims

Picks in bold

UFC heavyweight bout: Curtis Blaydes vs. Jailton Almeida

UFC flyweight bout: Katlyn Cerminara vs. Maycee Barber

UFC lightweight bout: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Rafael dos Anjos

UFC bantamweight bout: Pedro Munhoz vs. Kyler Phillips

UFC light-heavyweight bout: Ion Cutelaba vs. Philipe Lins

UFC middleweight bout: Michel Pereira vs. Michal Oleksiejczcuk

UFC heavyweight bout: Robelis Despaigne vs. Josh Parisian

UFC flyweight bout: CJ Vergara vs. Assu Almabayev

UFC flyweight bout: Joanne Wood vs. Maryna Moroz