UFC Predictions: UFC 311: Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan 2

The UFC heads to Inglewood, California next weekend for the first time since 2018. The promotion will present one of the most loaded events in some time.

UFC 311: Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan 2 features two title bouts, as well as some other hugely intriguing clashes up and down the card. So with plenty to look forward to, this is absolutely a show that fans cannot afford to miss.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 311: Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan.

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#1. UFC lightweight title: Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan

Back in 2019, Islam Makhachev was just 5-1 in the octagon and had not broken into the UFC's lightweight rankings.

Despite that, the Dagestani was already well-feared by most of his fellow 155-pounders, and so finding opponents for him was difficult for the matchmakers.

When the unknown debutant Arman Tsarukyan was selected to face him, then, few fans expected the Armenian to stand a chance.

In the end, Tsarukyan did come out on the wrong end of a loss, but the fight was far closer than anyone could've expected. The debutant took the fight to Makhachev, particularly on the ground, and fans were treated to some high-level grappling sequences throughout.

Essentially, Makhachev did just about enough to edge each round of the fight, but he certainly didn't dominate Tsarukyan in the same way that he'd done - and has done since - to most of his foes.

So nearly six years on, how have both men developed, and has enough changed to give us a different result here?

It's fair to say that Makhachev has only gotten better and better since that fight. His grappling remains stellar, but his striking has also improved to the point that he's hurt the likes of Charles Oliveira and Alexander Volkanovski on the feet.

At this stage, there's literally no question marks over the Dagestani. It's now genuinely possible that he'll surpass the legacy of his mentor Khabib Nurmagomedov, in fact.

However, it is arguable that Tsarukyan has improved even more than the champ. Outside of a razor-close decision loss to Mateusz Gamrot, he's been perfect since losing to Makhachev, winning his other nine bouts.

More importantly, he's now displayed some brutal striking, as he violently took out Beneil Dariush in 2023 and is also responsible for the only KO loss of Joel Alvarez's octagon tenure.

Based on recent social media posts, too, the Armenian is in incredible shape for this fight, looking bigger, leaner and stronger than ever.

Despite all of this, it's still difficult to pick the challenger here. Everything he's done, Makhachev has still seemingly done better.

To add to this, while MMA math doesn't always work, it's impossible not to consider how easily Makhachev dealt with Oliveira, and how many problems 'Do Bronx' gave to Tsarukyan in their bout last year.

At the end of the day, Tsarukyan is a great fighter, but not enough has changed since that first meeting to favor him to win here. It'll be close again, but expect Makhachev to just about come out on top.

The Pick: Makhachev via decision

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#2. UFC bantamweight title: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov

UFC 311's co-headliner is one of the most intriguing title bouts in some time, even for the loaded standards of the bantamweight division.

After Merab Dvalishvili upset Sean O'Malley in September, it was highly expected that 'Sugar' would be given an immediate rematch. After all, despite 'The Machine' dominating him, O'Malley remains probably the division's biggest star name.

Instead, though, the former champ will now wait, as the unbeaten 18-0 Umar Nurmagomedov will take his shot here.

'Young Eagle' is 6-0 in the octagon, and most recently outpointed Cory Sandhagen in a remarkably impressive showing. So can the Dagestani beat Dvalishvili, or will 'The Machine' come out on top again?

Naturally, the big question here stands around which fighter has the superior wrestling and takedowns. Both men are excellent at forcing their foes to the ground, and although Dvalishvili's takedown success rate stands at just 36%, a lot of that is due to the number of takedowns he attempts.

Equally, both men also have amazing takedown defense. Nurmagomedov has never been taken down, while only Henry Cejudo - an Olympic gold medalist - has taken Dvalishvili down recently.

With all of this considered, then, could we end up seeing a kickboxing match here, with both men's grappling canceling the other's out? It's definitely possible.

However, it's also a little hard to imagine Dvalishvili in particular letting this happen. Nurmagomedov should be the more comfortable striker - he dispatched Raoni Barcelos nicely on the feet - but whether he can stop 'The Machine' from closing the distance is another thing entirely.

Essentially, that's something that nobody has really managed to do since the Georgian debuted in the octagon back in 2017. Sure, Marlon Moraes rocked him, but even then, he somehow fought through to destroy the Brazilian later on.

For as good as Nurmagomedov has been, 'Young Eagle' has never fought anyone capable of putting the kind of pressure on him that Dvalishvili is. Cory Sandhagen is good, of course, but he's an entirely different prospect to 'The Machine'.

With that considered, then, it's just hard to see Nurmagomedov being able to keep Dvalishvili off him, and it's also difficult to see him being capable of imposing his will, too.

Therefore, expect a back-and-forth fight of sorts early on, before 'The Machine' takes over late on to retain his title via decision.

The Pick: Dvalishvili via decision

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#3. UFC 311: The Main Card

In a battle of former light-heavyweight champions, Jamahal Hill takes on Jiri Prochazka. While it's unlikely that the winner of this one will get another shot at Alex Pereira, given how easily 'Poatan' dispatched both, it's still a very fun-sounding and important fight at 205 pounds.

Who is likely to win? It's probably fair to argue that of the two, Prochazka is the far more proven talent.

'BJP' holds big wins over Dominick Reyes, Glover Teixeira and Aleksandar Rakic, and he's also one of the most dangerous finishers in the entire UFC right now. Hill, meanwhile, really only has Teixeira as his lone elite-level win.

With that said, Prochazka has struggled against cleaner kickboxers before, notably finding it hard going against Rakic early on. If Hill can keep this technical and look to stay on the outside and box, it could be his best opportunity of winning.

However, given Prochazka's slight reach advantage, it's hard to see 'Sweet Dreams' picking the Czech fighter apart. It seems more likely that Hill will start well, only for Prochazka to turn up the heat and dispatch him. The pick is Prochazka via TKO.

At lightweight, veterans Beneil Dariush and Renato Moicano are set to square off. While both of these men are 35 years old, it's fair to say that their trajectories last year were very different.

Moicano put together three wins after spending a year on the shelf to surprisingly climb back into the top 10, while Dariush did not fight following a pair of bad knockout losses in 2023, bouncing him out of contention.

The big question here surrounds exactly how much Dariush has left in the tank. Never the most explosive athlete, the Iranian looked to have slowed down considerably in his losses to both Charles Oliveira and Arman Tsarukyan, particularly on the feet.

If he's at his best, though, it's arguable that he's a nightmare foe for Moicano, as he's a better grappler and probably hits slightly harder, too.

Despite that, it's hard to pick an ageing fighter coming off knee surgery, especially one who has lost his last two bouts via KO. Therefore, the pick is Moicano via decision.

Finally, in a middleweight bout, action hero Kevin Holland faces Reinier de Ridder.

After an odd debut win over Gerald Meerschaert that was labeled "sloppy" by some fans, this is de Ridder's chance to make a real impact. If he can beat Holland, 'The Dutch Knight' could look to move into the top fifteen with another win.

The problem he might have is the reason for that sloppy debut - his cardio. The Dutchman looked to have gotten rapidly exhausted in his clash with Meerschaert, which doesn't bode well against Holland.

'Trailblazer' is definitely not unbeatable - he tends to blow hot and cold in the octagon - but he definitely has skills in all areas and doesn't tend to get tired in longer fights, either.

Overall, if de Ridder comes out quickly and Holland has one of his "bad" fights, 'The Dutch Knight' could pull off a win here. Based on how questionable his cardio looked last time out, though, the pick is Holland via TKO.

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#4. UFC 311: The Prelims

Picks in bold

UFC light-heavyweight bout: Johnny Walker vs. Bogdan Guskov

UFC bantamweight bout: Payton Talbott vs. Raoni Barcelos

UFC heavyweight bout: Jailton Almeida vs. Sergei Spivac

UFC middleweight bout: Zachary Reese vs. Sedriques Dumas

UFC lightweight bout: Grant Dawson vs. Carlos Diego Ferreira

UFC bantamweight bout: Karol Rosa vs. Ailin Perez

UFC bantamweight bout: Rinya Nakamura vs. Muin Gafurov

UFC bantamweight bout: Ricky Turcios vs. Bernardo Sopaj

UFC flyweight bout: Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Clayton Carpenter