UFC Predictions: UFC 313: Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev

Next weekend sees the UFC hit Las Vegas' T-Mobile Arena for what should be a huge pay-per-view event. The headliner could be one of 2025's biggest fights.

UFC 313: Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev has seen a few changes to the card, most notably in the co-main event, but it still looks like a good one.

So with plenty on the line, this event is one that fans simply cannot miss out on.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC 313: Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev.

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#1. UFC light heavyweight title: Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev

To call this fight a big one would be an understatement. In fact, the UFC really ought to be highly commended for putting it together rather than look to shift Alex Pereira into a heavyweight title bout with Jon Jones.

Instead of that fight - which, frankly, would be ludicrous - 'Poatan' will attempt to make the fourth defense of his light heavyweight title against arguably his toughest test to date in Magomed Ankalaev.

So can Pereira come out on top once again? Or will Ankalaev do what he failed to do in December 2022 and become the UFC's new light heavyweight champion?

The main reason that there's so much interest in this fight is the fact that, for as brilliant as he's been since moving up to 205 pounds, Pereira has not yet faced a stylistically tricky foe.

'Poatan' has dispatched Jiri Prochazka, Jamahal Hill, and Khalil Rountree Jr in terrifying fashion, obliterating all three men with his incredible striking power.

However, all three men looked to stand and exchange with him, rather than attempt to take the Brazilian out of his comfort zone.

In truth, they didn't have too much of a choice. Prochazka does have some submissions on his ledger, but is far more renowned for his striking, while Hill and Rountree are both kickboxers by trade.

None of the three, of course, could come close to the kind of credentials offered by Pereira. Nor could any of them stand up to the insane power that 'Poatan' packs in that left hand in particular.

Ankalaev is very different. While the Dagestani does have ten wins by knockout, including six in the octagon, he's also a very effective grappler.

Sure, he doesn't have any submission wins on his ledger, but like his fellow Dagestani fighters Khabib Nurmagomedov and Islam Makhachev, he loves to take top position and bully his foes with strikes.

Pereira, meanwhile, is almost a totally unknown quantity on the mat. We've seen him taken down and controlled by both Jan Blachowicz and Israel Adesanya, which is concerning, but neither man put him in true trouble.

Given that neither has the wrestling of Ankalaev, then, can we expect the Dagestani to simply ground 'Poatan' and beat him there?

It's possible, but then it's also arguable that Ankalaev's wrestling is a little overrated. His takedown success rate stands at 31 percent, and almost all of his foes - even pure strikers like Thiago Santos and Volkan Oezdemir - were able to defend at least a couple of attempts.

The idea, then, that he'll simply bulldoze Pereira on the ground could well be improbable.

When you add in the fact that Ankalaev has stated that he's more than willing to stand and exchange with 'Poatan' - although that could be a bluff - it could be a tough night for the Dagestani.

The fact is that for as much as Pereira has never fought a grappler as good as Ankalaev, Ankalaev has never faced a striker as deadly as 'Poatan' during his 12-bout unbeaten run.

This could theoretically go either way, but given that every fight starts standing, putting Pereira at an advantage, the prediction is that 'Poatan' will once again triumph.

The Pick: Pereira via second-round KO

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#2. UFC lightweight bout: Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev

Initially, UFC 313's co-headliner was supposed to see Justin Gaethje face Dan Hooker in a fight that seemed to guarantee fireworks.

Those plans changed this week, when Hooker was forced out of the event with an injury. It was a no-brainer to keep Gaethje on the card, as none of the remaining fights fitted a co-headline bill. The big question, then, was who would step in.

In the end, it's hard not to feel a bit underwhelmed by the fact that Rafael Fiziev will now be facing 'The Highlight'. Sure, 'Ataman' is a fantastic fighter who is still ranked at No.11 in the division. Given the notice, the promotion has done well to get him to take the bout.

However, the fact is that this is a rematch of a fight we only saw in March 2023, and while it won a 'Fight of the Night' award, a fresher foe for Gaethje might've been more welcome.

Based on that first bout, though, this one should still be a lot of fun.

That fight saw Fiziev shoot into an early lead, as he took the fight to Gaethje with his fast hands and his use of a nasty front kick to the body to keep 'The Highlight' at bay.

However, Gaethje then came back with some big shots, and once he found his range, he largely hurt 'Ataman' with a series of hooks and uppercuts.

In the end, Fiziev was busted up pretty badly, and while he showed a lot of toughness, it was quite clear who'd won. The fact that one judge scored the fight as a draw was bizarre, to tell the truth, as 'The Highlight' earned the decision.

Has enough changed for Fiziev to win here? It feels doubtful. Sure, Gaethje hasn't fought since that terrible knockout he suffered at the hands of Max Holloway last year, and could well be edging close to the end of his epic career.

However, 'The Highlight' has also had nearly a year to recover from that loss, and has been training hard for Hooker.

Fiziev, on the other hand, has not only taken this bout on short notice, he's also been out since September 2023. His last fight saw him lose to Mateusz Gamrot after tearing his ACL, an injury that usually hampers a fighter for some time even after they return.

If 'Ataman' is lacking in movement and explosiveness, something that is very possible after such a bad injury and a lack of a proper training camp, then he is likely to be in trouble here.

Fiziev should be commended for taking this fight and basically rescuing a major card, but the chances of him finding success seem slim. In fact, things are more likely to end even worse for him than they did last time.

The Pick: Gaethje via second-round KO

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#3. UFC 313: The Main Card

In a lightweight bout, Jalin Turner takes on Ignacio Bahamondes. Turner is in an interesting spot in that he's 1-3 in his last four, but is still ranked at No. 13 in the 155-pound division, largely on the strength of an excellent five-fight win streak between 2020 and 2022.

'The Tarantula' is a difficult opponent for most fighters. He's got a lanky frame, standing at 6ft 3in, and knows how to use it to catch opponents with nasty strikes from range. He's also underrated on the ground, largely due to his long arms being useful for chokes.

Turner is a little chinny, though, having suffered four career knockouts, including one in his last fight with Renato Moicano. So can Bahamondes take advantage?

The Chilean is definitely dangerous, having won five of his seven UFC bouts, including his last one, a nasty knockout of Manuel Torres.

However, 'La Jaula' is also used to having a length and reach advantage, something he won't have here.

This one is tricky to call because Turner is clearly less durable than Bahamondes, who has never been knocked out. However, 'The Tarantula' should use his experience at this level to pull through. The pick is Turner via decision.

In a strawweight bout, Amanda Lemos faces Iasmin Lucindo. With the strawweight title soon to be vacated, any fight featuring ranked 115-pounders is worth keeping a close eye on, including this one.

Of the two, No. 5-ranked Lemos is more proven, as she holds wins over the likes of Mackenzie Dern and Marina Rodriguez. She's dangerous from all areas, but can often leave herself open. While she's powerful, too, she isn't the most explosive athlete, something that has caused her to struggle in her three octagon losses.

However, while Lucindo is on a four-fight win streak and beat the highly-rated Marina Rodriguez last time out, she doesn't seem to have the physicality to really push Lemos here. The pick, then, is Lemos via TKO.

Finally, King Green faces Mauricio Ruffy in a lightweight tilt. Realistically, the idea behind this fight is a simple, but harsh one.

The UFC wants to push Ruffy - who has won two bouts in the octagon in impressive fashion - as a potential contender and star. Therefore, they've matched him with Green, who is past his prime, in an attempt to give him a win over a semi-big name.

Will the plan work? Green has upset the odds before, most notably against Grant Dawson in 2023. However, outside of that win, his only recent victories came over the even more shot Jim Miller and Tony Ferguson, and he's suffered some nasty losses to the likes of Jalin Turner and Drew Dober.

Given Ruffy's explosive striking and aggressive style, then, it's hard to see Green wrecking the promotion's hopes here. The pick is Ruffy via TKO.

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#4. UFC 313: The Prelims

Picks in bold

UFC heavyweight bout: Curtis Blaydes vs. Rizvan Kuniev

UFC flyweight bout: Joshua Van vs. Rei Tsuruya

UFC middleweight bout: Brunno Ferreira vs. Armen Petrosyan

UFC welterweight bout: Alex Morono vs. Carlos Leal

UFC featherweight bout: Mairon Santos vs. Francis Marshall

UFC middleweight bout: Djorden Ribeiro dos Santos vs. Osman Diaz