UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Ciryl Gane vs. Sergey Spivak

The UFC visits Paris for the second time this weekend for a Fight Night event, and unsurprisingly, the card has a distinctive European feel.

On paper, UFC Fight Night: Ciryl Gane vs. Sergey Spivak perhaps isn’t as good as last year’s Paris event, but it should be plenty of fun nonetheless.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Ciryl Gane vs. Sergey Spivak.

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#1. UFC heavyweight bout: Ciryl Gane vs. Sergey Spivak

Can Ciryl Gane bounce back from his loss to Jon Jones this weekend? [Image Credit: @ciryl_gane on Twitter]

The UFC tends to avoid matching fighters coming off wins against ones coming off losses, but that’s exactly what they’ve done here. Despite this being an outlier of sorts, it does make sense.

Last time we saw Ciryl Gane in action, the former interim heavyweight champion was facing Jon Jones for the undisputed title vacated by Francis Ngannou.

‘Bon Gamin’ had high hopes of producing a special win, but instead he looked overwhelmed, and found himself taken down and choked out in just two minutes.

Despite Jones’ status as an all-time great, it was an embarrassing loss for Gane, who has not fought since. Whether he can bounce back from it is anyone’s guess really, but the promotion haven’t really thrown him a softball here.

Sergey Spivak has developed from a fighter who essentially looked like a tomato can in his octagon debut into one of the more dangerous heavyweights on the roster.

Since losing his debut to Walt Harris, ‘The Polar Bear’ has reeled off eight wins with just two losses. He’s taken out Tai Tuivasa, Greg Hardy and Derrick Lewis, and now sits at No. 7 in the division. If he can win here, he could throw his hat in for title contention.

Basically, this fight should come down to a simple question: Can Gane keep things vertical, or did Jones expose a real hole in his game when it comes to takedown defense?

It’s an interesting question to ask, mainly because Ngannou also outworked the Frenchman on the ground, and prior to that, Gane had largely beaten striking-based foes like Lewis and Jairzinho Rozenstruik.

Spivak obviously isn’t as good a wrestler as Jones, but does he have takedowns as effective as Ngannou? Probably, and if he gets ‘Bon Gamin’ on his back, then the crowd could quickly be silenced.

The native of Moldova is lethal once he gets top position, and can easily finish his opponents from the mount or the back mount should he advance to those spots.

However, he’s much smaller than Gane, and on the feet, this fight is a no-contest. Spivak is simply too plodding to be able to deal with Gane’s combination attacks, and based on his KO losses to Harris and Tom Aspinall, his chin isn’t the best.

This one is a close one to call, then, but Gane will enjoy home turf advantage, and is the naturally bigger man, enjoying a three-inch reach advantage over ‘The Polar Bear’.

Things could go wrong quickly if Spivak can land an early takedown, but the smarter bet seems to be on Gane finding his range and abusing the Moldovan en route to a knockout.

The Pick: Gane via first-round KO

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#2. UFC flyweight bout: Manon Fiorot vs. Rose Namajunas

Can Rose Namajunas break into title contention at flyweight this weekend? [Image Credit: @rosenamajunas on Instagram]

The UFC’s women’s flyweight division is in an interesting spot right now, and this fight could definitely make things even more interesting.

Current champ Alexa Grasso is set to face off with former titleholder Valentina Shevchenko next month, while it looks like Erin Blanchfield, who beat Taila Santos this past weekend, could be next in line.

However, the winner of this fight could easily force their way into title contention too, and with the right kind of victory, could even leapfrog over Blanchfield.

Manon Fiorot is currently ranked above ‘Cold Blooded’, in fact, sitting at No.2 in the division. The native of Nice has reeled off five straight wins in the octagon, fully earning her nickname of ‘The Beast’.

Striking is Fiorot’s game. She hits hard, has excellent fundamentals, and is pretty big for a 125lber, too. The big question mark on her is her ground game, but to be fair, nobody has really put her on her back to fully test it, at least not in the octagon.

However, former strawweight champ Rose Namajunas will hope to be that fighter this weekend. ‘Thug Rose’ is obviously a fantastic striker in her own right, holding big KO wins over the likes of Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Weili Zhang.

However, she’s also a remarkably dangerous grappler, making her one of the most talented female fighters on the roster.

The issues Namajunas has had have largely been with her mental state. ‘Thug Rose’ fought terribly in her last bout, a weird title loss to Carla Esparza, and while that was her first defeat since 2019, it’s hard to say where her headspace is after sitting out for over a year.

Interestingly, Namajunas does have a 65” reach, identical to that of Fiorot, and while it’s unlikely that she’ll be a huge flyweight, gaining 10lbs shouldn’t make too much difference to her overall attack.

Basically, if ‘Thug Rose’ is at her best, then this fight ought to belong to her. She’s got more experience, has beaten superior fighters before, and can finish her foes from any area. However, it’s certainly fair to question her mentality at this point, and how she’ll deal with heading into hostile territory is anyone’s guess.

With all things considered, Namajunas should win this fight, but it’s impossible to trust her at this stage, so the pick is Fiorot via decision.

The Pick: Fiorot via unanimous decision

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#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card

France's Benoit Saint-Denis features on the main card this weekend [Image Credit: @BenoitSt_Denis on Twitter]

In a lightweight bout, France’s Benoit Saint-Denis faces Thiago Moises. This should be a battle of grapplers, and both men are on excellent runs right now. Saint-Denis has won his last three bouts, while Moises has won his last two.

This should come down to whoever can get the better of the other on the ground; Moises is perhaps the more proven quantity, but Saint-Denis has the home advantage and probably has a little more momentum right now. This one could go either way but the pick is ‘BSD’ via decision.

In a light-heavyweight scrap, Volkan Oezdemir takes on Bogdan Guskov. This one is slightly tricky to call, as Oezdemir is probably past his prime now, but is still very capable of hurting his foes despite holding one win in his last four.

Guskov, meanwhile, has a flashy record, but hasn’t fought anyone of note. More to the point, he is taking this bout on late notice, and looks slightly small for a 205lber, too. With that in mind, the pick is Oezdemir via TKO.

In a featherweight bout, William Gomis faces Lucas Almeida. Gomis has gone 2-0 in the UFC thus far, albeit winning both bouts via decision, while Almeida has gone 1-1, and lost his most recent fight to Pat Sabatini.

This one should be another close fight to call, but overall, Gomis looks like the slightly stronger fighter. If the Frenchman can use the home advantage to help him and avoid anything overly explosive, he should win another decision.

Finally, Yanis Ghemmouri faces Caolan Loughran in a bantamweight clash. Both of these men are UFC debutants, making it a very difficult fight to pick, particularly as neither has any true standout wins.

Despite this, Loughran’s record is very slightly more impressive, and although he’s heading into hostile territory, the pick is ‘The Don’ via KO.

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#4. UFC Fight Night: The Prelims

Picks in bold

UFC featherweight bout: Morgan Charriere vs. Manolo Zecchini

UFC bantamweight bout: Taylor Lapilus vs. Muin Gafurov

UFC bantamweight bout: Zarah Fairn dos Santos vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti

UFC bantamweight bout: Joselyne Edwards vs. Nora Cornolle

UFC welterweight bout: Ange Loosa vs. Rhys McKee

UFC bantamweight bout: Farid Basharat vs. Kleydson Rodrigues