UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley

The UFC returns for its final show of 2024 this weekend. The promotion is heading to Tampa, Florida for what looks like a fun Fight Night.

UFC Fight Night: Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley features a fascinating welterweight clash in the headliner, and some other solid bouts across various divisions.

With any luck, this event will hopefully end the year with a bang.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley.

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#1. UFC welterweight bout: Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley

Since his move to 170 pounds in 2023, few fighters have been hotter than Joaquin Buckley. 'New Mansa' has reeled off five wins in a row to crash into the rankings, and is now far more than the one-trick pony that his famed viral win over Impa Kasanganay suggested.

Showing more patience and poise than he ever did at 185 pounds, Buckley's explosive striking, speed and improved ground game have allowed him to beat the likes of Vicente Luque and most recently, Stephen Thompson.

It was obvious that 'New Mansa' needed a big step up, and this weekend, he'll get one in the form of former interim champ Colby Covington.

'Chaos' was not initially scheduled to fight here, with Buckley initially matched with Ian Machado Garry. With Garry removed to face Shavkat Rakhmonov this past weekend, though, Covington was a surprising replacement.

That's because the Donald Trump-loving wrestler has been very selective over recent years when it comes to choosing his foes. In fact, since his initial title fight loss to Kamaru Usman in 2019, he's only fought on four occasions.

He beat Tyron Woodley impressively in 2020, and then bounced back from a second loss to Usman by blanketing Jorge Masvidal in a grudge match.

However, his fight with Leon Edwards last year seemed to show him as a shadow of his former self, as he lost a clear-cut decision.

At his best, 'Chaos' was a fantastic fighter. Despite not being the best technical striker, he'd wade forward winging combinations at his foes, backing them up and never letting them breathe before using that assault to set up his takedowns.

The approach led him to some huge wins, most notably over Robbie Lawler, Rafael dos Anjos and Woodley. Were Usman not such a powerful wrestler, in fact, Covington likely would've won the title.

Whether he's the same fighter, though, is debatable. 'Chaos' didn't just look bad against Edwards, he looked terrible. He fought like a passenger, not putting his trademark pressure on 'Rocky', and were Edwards more willing to open up, he could've scored a stoppage.

The big question here, then, is whether Covington can roll back the years and overcome Buckley. At his best, he may well be kryptonite for 'New Mansa'. His pressuring style likely would've negated Buckley's explosive striking - which requires room to manoeuvre - and on the ground, 'Chaos' would've had a big advantage.

Now, though? Covington is not only 36, but he's coming off a year on the shelf and hasn't actually won a bout since 2022. More to the point, he isn't taking this fight with a full training camp, which should be a concern for his cardio.

In the end, this is a huge risk for 'Chaos'. If he wins, he's automatically back into contention and could pick up some huge fights in 2025. If he loses, though, his reputation will be in tatters and any chance of a big-money fight next year will be out of the window.

So which way will it go? It's hard to say, but Buckley has been consistent, he appears to still be improving, and will be hungry for a big win. The same cannot be said for Covington, who may well be at the end of his tenure.

The pick, therefore, is 'New Mansa', perhaps even via stoppage.

The Pick: Buckley via second round KO

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#2. UFC featherweight bout: Cub Swanson vs. Billy Quarantillo

This weekend's co-headliner pits a pair of featherweight veterans against one another, as Cub Swanson faces off with Billy Quarantillo.

Neither of these men are going to contend for the title at 145 pounds any time soon, so the only hope here really is for an exciting fight. So which of these two men will come out on top?

Swanson has been written off on multiple occasions over the last few years, seemingly after every time he's suffered a loss. Given he's now 41 years old and has been competing at the top since 2007, it's hardly surprising.

However, 'Killer Cub' looked strong in his win over Hakeem Dawodu in the summer of 2023, and pushed Andre Fili all the way in a losing effort this year.

He's slower than he once was and is far less durable, but he's still capable of chaining dangerous combinations together, is still an excellent scrambler, and his cardio remains intact, too.

Quarantillo has been more of a journeyman throughout his UFC career, which dates back to an appearance on TUF 22 back in 2015. After winning three in a row between 2019 and 2020, he's alternated wins and losses now to take his record to 6-4 overall.

Like Swanson, Quarantillo has no real glaring weaknesses, and realistically, the only thing that's kept him from a run into the rankings - like many fighters - is a lack of natural athleticism and durability.

He might be more hopeful against Swanson here, purely because of the veteran's age. The reality, though, is that 'Killer Cub' has only ever lost to very high-level fighters, with his loss to Fili being his first to a non-ranked opponent in some time.

Quarantillo, in contrast, has never really beaten a top-level foe, and while he's looked good in flashes, he is inconsistent to say the least.

If father time has finally caught up with Swanson, then it isn't impossible that Quarantillo wins here. Overall, though, as long as the same Swanson who fought Fili shows up this weekend, it should be a victory for him.

The Pick: Swanson via decision

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#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card

In a key flyweight bout, Manel Kape takes on Bruno Gustavo da Silva. Currently ranked at No.9 in the division, Kape is looking to bounce back from a disappointing loss to Muhammad Mokaev in the summer.

Da Silva, meanwhile, is ranked three spots lower at No.12, is 4-2 in the octagon, and is riding a four-fight win streak.

Both of these men are pretty rapid strikers, meaning that if they decide to stand, it could be a thriller to watch. Kape is probably more explosive and carries more power, but da Silva is likely the better fighter on the ground.

However, it's easy to imagine that 'Starboy' will have drilled nothing but wrestling following his last loss. If he can keep this standing, he's the more accurate striker, so with that in mind, the pick is Kape via decision.

At light-heavyweight, Vitor Petrino takes on Dustin Jacoby. Petrino looked to be riding up the ranks until a loss to Anthony Smith, but he almost caused that loss himself, leaving his neck out for a guillotine choke.

Former pro kickboxer Jacoby, meanwhile, is always a dangerous striker, but recently, 'The Hanyak' has looked more plodding than he once did. He's now 1-4 in his last five bouts, and while he's largely avoided suffering stoppages, he does look past his prime.

Jacoby can definitely win this if Petrino leaves himself too open, but if the Brazilian fights smart and doesn't let him get into a rythym, it should be his to lose. The pick is Petrino via decision.

At bantamweight, we have a potential firefight on offer between Adrian Yanez and Daniel Marcos.

At one point, Yanez looked like he was going to climb into contention at 135 pounds. However, his losses to Rob Font and Jonathan Martinez showed he isn't there just yet, as he looked a little one-dimensional and lacked durability. He did, however, bounce back well in his win over Vinicius Salvador.

Marcos looks like a good opponent for him. 'Soncora' is unbeaten at 16-0 with one No Contest, but he doesn't have the same kind of snap to his strikes that Yanez does. More to the point, the Peruvian is willing to duke it out, which could be a huge error here.

Expect this one to be a frontrunner for Fight of the Night, but the prediction is Yanez via KO.

Finally, a light-heavyweight tilt pits Navajo Stirling against George Tokkos. It's hard to know really what to expect here, as Stirling only has five MMA fights to his name, although he looked explosive in his win on Dana White's Contender Series.

Tokkos, meanwhile, struggled greatly in his octagon debut, a loss to Oumar Sy in May. Realistically, it's hard to tell if he offers all that much.

This one is honestly a coin flip of sorts. However, based on his potential, the pick is Stirling via KO.

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#4. UFC Fight Night: The Prelims

Picks in bold

UFC lightweight bout: Michael Johnson vs. Ottman Azaitar

UFC lightweight bout: Joel Alvarez vs. Drakkar Klose

UFC featherweight bout: Sean Woodson vs. Fernando Padilla

UFC featherweight bout: Miles Johns vs. Felipe Lima

UFC flyweight bout: Miranda Maverick vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth

UFC bantamweight bout: Davey Grant vs. Ramon Taveras

UFC strawweight bout: Piera Rodriguez vs. Josefine Lindgren Knutsson