UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar Nurmagomedov

The UFC visits Abu Dhabi this weekend for a Fight Night event. In many ways, this is a pay-per-view quality card.

Sure, UFC Fight Night: Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar Nurmagomedov no longer features Nick Diaz, but there's still plenty on offer to get excited about.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar Nurmagomedov.

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#1 UFC bantamweight bout: Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar Nurmagomedov

According to Cory Sandhagen himself, the winner of this bout will be in line for the next UFC bantamweight title shot. That alone makes it one of the summer's most pivotal fights.

Plans can change, of course, but with Sean O'Malley now confirmed to fight Merab Dvalishvili in September, the timeline definitely works. So will 'The Sandman' win, or will Umar Nurmagomedov come out on top?

One thing is for certain. Sandhagen is easily the most difficult foe that Nurmagomedov has ever faced in his career.

'The Sandman' holds wins over Marlon Vera, Song Yadong, Frankie Edgar and Marlon Moraes. He would've beaten TJ Dillashaw with better judges. His only recent losses came to Petr Yan and Aljamain Sterling, and even then, only Sterling really dealt with him, submitting him with a choke.

Sandhagen is quick, knows how to make the most of his lanky 5ft 11in frame, and is absolutely no slouch on the ground either. He's also a consummate finisher, and if he gets an opponent hurt, he's usually going to find a way to put them away.

Despite this, it's easy to underestimate him against such a highly-touted foe. The cousin of lightweight legend Khabib, Nurmagomedov is unbeaten at 17-0 and has shown himself to be very much like the fighter who will be in his corner this weekend.

'Young Eagle' has basically been able to take down every foe he's faced, chains his takedowns together brilliantly, and if he can get to a dominant position on the ground, he puts his foes away with brutal submissions.

Nor is Nurmagomedov a slouch on the feet. He showed this when he stopped Raoni Barcelos in 2023 with a combination of a body kick and some heavy punches.

The Dagestani would be ill-advised to stand and trade with Sandhagen, though. Not only is 'The Sandman' a far more proven striker, but he's also got an absolutely iron chin, as he showed when he survived the barrages Yan threw at him.

However, Sandhagen isn't impervious to takedowns. His takedown defense stands at a rate of 64%, and generally, if someone has wanted to take him down, they've done so.

Sure, he's venomous enough on his back for that not to matter most of the time, but against a grappler on the level of Nurmagomedov, that's worrying.

'The Sandman' should probably be favored by the smart money here. He's more proven, has more ways to finish his foes, and has had plenty of experience in five round bouts.

However, it's also hard to shake the vision of how Sterling handled Sandhagen by dragging him down, wrapping him up and choking him out. 'Young Eagle' is more than capable of doing the same, especially if he can get an early takedown.

This one is close to call, near impossible in fact. However, the pick - just about - is Nurmagomedov.

The Pick: Nurmagomedov via first round submission

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#2 UFC middleweight bout: Sharabutdin Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk

Initially, the co-headliner here would've pitted Nick Diaz against Vicente Luque in an intriguing, if concerning bout.

With Diaz sidelined, though, the UFC have produced this fight on relatively short notice. It's another strong test for Sharabutdin Magomedov, who has thus far passed each one with flying colors.

'Shara Bullet' has picked apart his first two octagon foes with his brutal brand of striking, most recently dispatching Antonio Trocoli via TKO. A heavy-handed, clean kickboxer, the Dagestani's speed is perhaps his most underrated attribute.

For a big fighter, he's remarkably quick, and has a tendency to close the distance rapidly to land his strikes.

In many ways he's wild, which does leave him open to counter shots, but thus far into his career at least, nobody's really been able to capitalize.

His ground game remains a question mark, of course, but is Michal Oleksiejczuk really the man to test it? It's doubtful.

'Hussar' has lost his last two bouts via submission, and has always tended to struggle on the ground. However, on the feet he's a punishing striker who loves to wade forward with heavy hands, meaning his six TKO wins in the octagon aren't surprising.

With that said, Oleksiejczuk is worryingly plodding on the feet, and that should play into the hands of 'Shara Bullet' here. It feels likely that 'Hussar' will attempt to close him down to bully him and land big punches, but his slower pace might cost him.

Overall, it's likely to expect a nasty counter to finish this one in favor of Magomedov.

The Pick: Magomedov via second round TKO

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#3 UFC Fight Night: The Main Card

In a huge bantamweight bout that's flying under the radar somewhat, Marlon Vera takes on Deiveson Figueiredo. There are a couple of big questions around this one.

Firstly, the last time we saw Vera in action, he suffered a brutal beating at the hands of Sean O'Malley. Is 'Chito' really going to have recovered from that in less than six months? It's hard to say.

Figueiredo, meanwhile, is unbeaten since moving to 135 pounds. He's dispatched Rob Font and Cody Garbrandt, and we know he's got the technique and violent tendencies to get to the top. After all, he was dominant at 125 pounds before a combination of weight cutting issues and Brandon Moreno got to him.

All things being equal, then, this ought to be Figueiredo's fight to lose. Everything Vera does well, 'Deus Da Guerra' does better. The only question is whether Vera's size advantage can play into his hands.

Given he's coming off a horrible beating, though, quite what version of 'Chito' we'll see remains to be seen. With that in mind, the pick is Figueiredo via decision.

In a welterweight tilt, Tony Ferguson faces Michael Chiesa. Interestingly, this fight was supposed to headline a Fight Night event back in 2016, albeit at lightweight, before it fell apart.

Both men have changed immensely since then. Their styles have remained the same - Ferguson is still a wild freestyler, Chiesa still a stifling grappler - but they're both on losing streaks now and look past their best.

With that said, 'El Cucuy' has never fought at 170 pounds on full notice, while Chiesa is at least used to competing there. More to the point, there's no real shame in his losses to the likes of Kevin Holland and Sean Brady.

Ferguson, on the other hand, is so far past his prime at this stage it's scary. You have to go back to 2019 to find his last win, and with each loss he's looked worse. It's sad to say it, but the only pick here is Chiesa via submission, and Ferguson should probably retire after.

In a strawweight bout, Mackenzie Dern faces Loopy Godinez. This fight promises to be a huge step up for Godinez. She does hold an underrated octagon record of 7-4, but she's never beaten anyone of true consequence, and Dern is probably the division's best grappler.

Dern is coming off back-to-back losses. However, it's well worth noting that those fights pitted her against stylistic nightmares. She remains a fighter capable of submitting anyone she can take down, and in Godinez, she's against someone who'll probably go to the ground with her.

With all of this considered, the pick is Dern via submission.

Finally, at lightweight, Elves Brener faces Joel Alvarez. This fight pits two of the 155 pound division's most interesting prospects against one another. While both men have been grinded down by great fighters like Arman Tsarukyan, they've also shown explosive skills and are capable of dispatching anyone.

Of the two, though, Spain's Alvarez is perhaps more proven. He's taken out tough veterans like Thiago Moises and Marc Diakiese, and has finished all of his wins. He might be fighting fire with fire against an opponent as dangerous as Brener, but if there's a finish here, 'El Fenomeno' is more likely to produce it. The pick is Alvarez via TKO.

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#4 UFC Fight Night: The Prelims

Picks in bold

UFC light-heavyweight bout: Azamat Murzakanov vs. Alonzo Menifield

UFC lightweight bout: Mohammad Yahya vs. Kaue Fernandes

UFC heavyweight bout: Shamil Gaziev vs. Don'Tale Mayes

UFC lightweight bout: Guram Kutateladze vs. Jordan Vucenic

UFC strawweight bout: Victoria Dudakova vs. Sam Hughes

UFC lightweight bout: Jai Herbert vs. Ronaldo Bedoya

UFC middleweight bout: Sedriques Dumas vs. Denis Tiuliulin