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This weekend sees the UFC back in its Las Vegas APEX center for UFC Fight Night: Derek Brunson vs. Darren Till.
This UFC Fight Night card features a major middleweight clash in the main event, as well as a number of European-based stars up and down the card.
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Overall, it looks like an event that could be well worth watching, even if the name value isn’t all that high.
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With that in mind, here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Derek Brunson vs. Darren Till.
#1. UFC middleweight division: Derek Brunson vs. Darren Till
Despite the fact that Jared Cannonier recently laid down his own title credentials by defeating Kelvin Gastelum, there’s a chance that the next UFC middleweight title challenger could emerge from this fight.
That probably won’t be the case if Derek Brunson wins, as the veteran already holds losses to both current champ Israel Adesanya and the division’s top contender Robert Whittaker.
However, Darren Till has been talked up by Adesanya as an interesting foe. So if ‘The Gorilla’ can win, there’s every chance he’ll make his way to the front of the queue.
So can the native of Liverpool, England, pull this off? Or is Brunson a bit of a nightmare match for him? It’s actually hard to say.
Everyone is well aware of the style that Brunson brings at this point. An excellent wrestler, Brunson is more than capable of blanketing a foe, as he did to Chris Leben in his UFC debut. But over the last few years, that hasn’t been his style at all.
Sure, he played that card to defeat Kevin Holland in his last bout – putting him on a four-fight win streak – but for the most part, Brunson is a straight-ahead, aggressive striker who loves to rush his opponents with brute force.
In many ways, Brunson fights in the way that the likes of Dana White would’ve loved Tyron Woodley to do. He’s explosive, quick and powerful, and he knows it – meaning that if he can rush an opponent and force them back, he’s usually going to knock them out. And if he can’t do that, then he’s always got his takedowns to fall back on.
The problem he has had is with more accurate strikers who are able to dodge that early rush and land clean counters on him. We saw this when he was knocked out by Adesanya, Whittaker and by Jacare Souza in 2018.
Till is an intriguing opponent for Brunson largely because he definitely has that kind of countering ability in his arsenal.
‘The Gorilla’ gained a reputation as a knockout artist after taking out Donald Cerrone in 2017, but in reality, that isn’t usually his game. Till hits hard – Jorge Masvidal confirmed that after their fight – but he’s much more of a point-fighting based striker who’s also more than happy to work from close quarters.
At middleweight thus far, he showed that he isn’t likely to be outmuscled, as he beat Gastelum in a clinch war, and to be fair, he did well against Whittaker too despite being outpointed.
The big question here then is does Till have the skills to catch Brunson coming in, or is he more likely to succumb to either the rush of power strikes or the takedown?
Given Till’s skills on the feet, he’s probably more likely to pull off the former. After all, while Brunson has defeated strikers in the UFC before, they’ve tended to be slower, older strikers, or those who were willing to meet him head on.
‘The Gorilla’ will need to play this perfectly – he can’t afford to eat a big shot from Brunson given his power – but if he can stay out of range, keep elusive and catch his foe coming in, he can definitely win.
The Pick: Till via second round TKO
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#2. UFC heavyweight division: Tom Aspinall vs. Sergey Spivak
This weekend’s co-main event should’ve seen a battle of two of the UFC heavyweight division’s brightest prospects; Aspinall was initially pitted against Sergei Pavlovich. However, with the Russian withdrawing last week, he’s now faced with Sergey Spivak in a slightly less intriguing bout.
Aspinall is thus far undefeated in the UFC, reeling off three victories since his debut in 2020. Initially billed as a grappler, his first two wins came via strikes. The Liverpool-based fighter had no issues dealing with Jake Collier and Alan Baudot, but his third win was the most impressive.
The victory came over former UFC heavyweight champ Andrei Arlovski and saw Aspinall hurt 'The Pitbull' with strikes before finishing him off with a rear-naked choke in the second round.
Aspinall isn’t the most explosive athlete in the heavyweight division, but given the plodding nature of most of his likely foes, that doesn’t matter too much. He’s got cleaner skills than most of the division on the feet and the ground, and that alone could take him to the top.
Spivak, meanwhile, debuted in the UFC in 2019 and initially did not look like a UFC-level fighter by any means. ‘The Polar Bear’ succumbed to Walt Harris by KO in just 50 seconds. Since then, however, he’s crafted a decent niche for himself.
Wins over Tai Tuivasa and the aging Aleksei Oleinik are Spivak’s best in the UFC thus far, but any fighter who can go 4-2 in the UFC deserves at least some respect.
Physically, Spivak will likely come in as the smaller man here. Despite his ‘Polar Bear’ nickname, the native of Moldova is short for a heavyweight, standing at 6’3”. And while he isn’t a small man, he’s not muscle-bound and should be giving up some power to Aspinall, who usually weighs in around 15lbs or so heavier.
In all honesty, this looks like a bad fight for Spivak. His wins have tended to come against less explosive fighters, or in the form of Tuivasa, someone who is still developing on the ground.
Aspinall, meanwhile, has dangerous skills in all areas and seems faster than Spivak, as well as larger overall. After the way he folded against Harris, there are genuine questions around how Spivak can take a heavy shot.
Spivak should last longer here, as Harris – despite his limitations – is remarkably dangerous in the early part of a fight. However, once Aspinall settles into a rhythm, it’s doubtful that ‘The Polar Bear’ will be able to survive, particularly on late notice.
The Pick: Aspinall via second round TKO
#3 UFC Fight Night: The Main Card
Former UFC title challenger Alex Perez faces Matt Schnell in a flyweight bout. This one should be interesting as Schnell is very tough and has skills in all areas, but Perez is perhaps more explosive and is likely to be able to get into Schnell’s face with his striking. Therefore, Perez via TKO is the pick.
In a strawweight bout, Ariane Lipski welcomes Mandy Bohm to the UFC. Bohm is unbeaten with a 7-0 record, but her opponents have been nothing to write home about. Lipski, meanwhile, hasn’t been as successful in the UFC as some would’ve hoped, but she’s still a cult favorite thanks to her aggressive style.
Lipski isn’t unbeatable by any means – she’s 2-4 in the UFC after all – but she’s also a very tricky out for a debutant, so the pick is Lipski via decision.
In a light-heavyweight clash, Modestas Bukauskas faces Khalil Rountree. Rountree is a classic example of a fighter who’s very easy to read. Either he’ll knock his opponent out violently – or hurt them badly en route to a decision – or he’ll gas out and succumb to his foe, usually on the ground.
Thankfully for him, Bukauskas is highly likely to meet him on the feet, meaning we’ll be in for a shootout of sorts. Either man could win, but Rountree’s power should take him to a knockout victory.
Finally, Paddy Pimblett makes his long-awaited UFC debut against Luigi Vendramini in a lightweight bout. Pimblett gained a lot of publicity for his all-action, aggressive style in the UK, and this appears to be a good time for him to be debuting, thanks to his experience.
Vendramini should provide him with a tough test, but he’s been beaten by better athletes in the UFC. Pimblett should also hold a speed advantage. That should be enough to take ‘Paddy the Baddy’ to a win, probably via submission.
#4 UFC Fight Night: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC flyweight division: Molly McCann vs. Ji Yeon Kim
UFC featherweight division: Julian Erosa vs. Charles Jourdain
UFC middleweight division: Dalcha Lungiambula vs. Marc-Andre Barriault
UFC welterweight division: Alex Morono vs. David Zawada
UFC bantamweight division: Jonathan Martinez vs. Marcelo Rojo
UFC lightweight division: Rafael Alves vs. Marc Diakiese
UFC bantamweight division: Jack Shore vs. Liudvik Sholinian
