UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Derek Brunson vs. Darren Till

#2. UFC heavyweight division: Tom Aspinall vs. Sergey Spivak

Tom Aspinall looks like one of the UFC heavyweight division's most dangerous prospects

This weekend’s co-main event should’ve seen a battle of two of the UFC heavyweight division’s brightest prospects; Aspinall was initially pitted against Sergei Pavlovich. However, with the Russian withdrawing last week, he’s now faced with Sergey Spivak in a slightly less intriguing bout.

Aspinall is thus far undefeated in the UFC, reeling off three victories since his debut in 2020. Initially billed as a grappler, his first two wins came via strikes. The Liverpool-based fighter had no issues dealing with Jake Collier and Alan Baudot, but his third win was the most impressive.

The victory came over former UFC heavyweight champ Andrei Arlovski and saw Aspinall hurt 'The Pitbull' with strikes before finishing him off with a rear-naked choke in the second round.

Making a name for himself! 🗣Tom Aspinall submits Arlovski early in RD 2. #UFCVegas19 pic.twitter.com/3Qy5KYSNEr

— UFC (@ufc) February 21, 2021

Aspinall isn’t the most explosive athlete in the heavyweight division, but given the plodding nature of most of his likely foes, that doesn’t matter too much. He’s got cleaner skills than most of the division on the feet and the ground, and that alone could take him to the top.

Spivak, meanwhile, debuted in the UFC in 2019 and initially did not look like a UFC-level fighter by any means. ‘The Polar Bear’ succumbed to Walt Harris by KO in just 50 seconds. Since then, however, he’s crafted a decent niche for himself.

Wins over Tai Tuivasa and the aging Aleksei Oleinik are Spivak’s best in the UFC thus far, but any fighter who can go 4-2 in the UFC deserves at least some respect.

Physically, Spivak will likely come in as the smaller man here. Despite his ‘Polar Bear’ nickname, the native of Moldova is short for a heavyweight, standing at 6’3”. And while he isn’t a small man, he’s not muscle-bound and should be giving up some power to Aspinall, who usually weighs in around 15lbs or so heavier.

In all honesty, this looks like a bad fight for Spivak. His wins have tended to come against less explosive fighters, or in the form of Tuivasa, someone who is still developing on the ground.

Aspinall, meanwhile, has dangerous skills in all areas and seems faster than Spivak, as well as larger overall. After the way he folded against Harris, there are genuine questions around how Spivak can take a heavy shot.

Spivak should last longer here, as Harris – despite his limitations – is remarkably dangerous in the early part of a fight. However, once Aspinall settles into a rhythm, it’s doubtful that ‘The Polar Bear’ will be able to survive, particularly on late notice.

The Pick: Aspinall via second round TKO