UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Grant Dawson vs. Bobby Green

The UFC returns to the Las Vegas APEX this weekend for a Fight Night event. While the card doesn’t feature many big names, it looks decent nonetheless.

UFC Fight Night: Grant Dawson vs. Bobby Green features strong bouts in the lightweight, middleweight and welterweight divisions, and should hopefully produce some fun action.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Grant Dawson vs. Bobby Green.

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#1. UFC lightweight bout: Grant Dawson vs. Bobby Green

Grant Dawson remains unbeaten in the lightweight division [Image Credit: @grantdawsonkgd on Instagram]

Sometimes it feels like a fighter is destined to fly under the radar in the UFC despite having plenty of talent and an exciting style too. Grant Dawson is the latest name on that unfortunate list, but he has the chance to change that this weekend.

‘KGD’ has been part of the lightweight roster since March 2019. Remarkably, despite stepping into the octagon on eight occasions since his debut win, he remains unbeaten.

Sure, the toughest opponents Dawson has faced thus far have been the likes of Mark Madsen, Jared Gordon and Leonardo Santos, but that’s beside the point. Most opponents in the UFC are tricky and ‘KGD’ has largely cut through them, with only three of his victims lasting the distance.

The one black mark on his record? A draw with Ricky Glenn in October 2021, but even that bout could well have gone Dawson’s way had the judges given him a 10-8 first round.

Overall, Dawson has skills in all areas but he’s undoubtedly at his best if he can close the distance and get an opponent to the ground. Once he’s got top position, he’s extremely strong with ground-and-pound and is opportunistic when it comes to hunting for chokes.

His opponent this weekend, Bobby Green, should prove to be a tricky test. ‘King’ has been around for years now, dating back to the Strikeforce merger in 2013. While he’s never climbed into title contention, he’s never been miles away.

Green is one of the best boxers in the lightweight division, using a shoulder rolling style inspired by the likes of Floyd Mayweather to avoid the wilder shots of his opponents.

A strong wrestler in his own right too, ‘King’ realistically doesn’t have many weaknesses aside from a couple of intangibles.

Firstly, he has a tendency to get too cocky at times when it comes to his defense, meaning he can drop his hands and get caught. Secondly, if an opponent does get him down, he almost seems to shut down on the ground, leaving him open.

This fight, then, should be determined by how well Green does in the early going. If he can stop Dawson from closing the distance and can get into a rhythm with his boxing, it’s easy to see an avenue for him to win. Essentially, ‘KGD’ lacks the natural athleticism of Green, and could end up being picked off.

However, given the bout is a five round one, whether ‘King’ can keep that kind of game going for so long is a very fair question mark. Dawson is remarkably tough and isn’t likely to suffer an early knockout, and so if he can keep up the pressure, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Green either fold, or become too inactive to score points.

This is a remarkably difficult fight to pick, purely because the path to victory for either man is pretty clear. However, given Dawson’s lengthy unbeaten run and the fact that the five rounds may favour him, the pick is ‘KGD’ via late TKO.

The Pick: Dawson via fourth-round TKO

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#2. UFC middleweight bout: Joe Pyfer vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan

Prospect Joe Pyfer has garnered a lot of hype in his brief octagon career [Image Credit: @joepyfer on Instagram]

Like many of the bouts on this card, this one lacks in some name value but should make up for that with some truly crazy action. Will the winner of this fight be propelled into contention for the UFC middleweight title? Almost certainly not, but it should be a clash to keep a close eye on regardless.

Of the two, we know more about Abdul Razak Alhassan, purely because of the length of his tenure with the promotion.

‘Judo Thunder’ debuted way back in late 2016, and while his record is highly spotty – 6-5 in the octagon – all of his wins have come via KO or TKO. Essentially, if he lands cleanly on an opponent, they’re likely to go down and out.

However, while he’s remarkably explosive, Alhassan isn’t all that durable either. He’s only been knocked out once – by Khaos Williams in 2020 – but the likes of Joaquin Buckley and Mounir Lazzez also had him hurt en route to decision wins.

More to the point, his best wins have almost all come at 170 pounds, a weight he began to struggle to make a couple of years back, forcing him up to 185 pounds for good.

Essentially, he’s a good, if limited opponent for a bright young fighter looking to climb the ranks in the UFC, and that makes him perfect for Joe Pyfer.

‘Bodybagz’ made his debut in the octagon after a win on Dana White’s Contender Series last summer, and has already made his mark. He’s reeled off two knockout wins, most notably dispatching veteran Gerald Meerschaert in impressive fashion in April.

We don’t know all that much about Pyfer if we’re honest. However, he’s a big 185lber who hits hard, and so if he can avoid the big shot from Alhassan, this should be business as usual for him.

It isn’t a layup by any means, purely because of the heavy hands of ‘Judo Thunder’, but the matchmakers clearly like Pyfer, and so it’s unlikely they’d throw him into a clash that he’s going to struggle with at this stage. Therefore, the pick is Pyfer via KO.

The Pick: Pyfer via first-round KO

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#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card

Exciting striker Drew Dober features on this weekend's main card [Image Credit: @drewdober on Instagram]

In a welterweight bout, Alex Morono faces Joaquin Buckley. The book is written on Morono at this point. ‘The Great White’ is a hard-nosed brawler who makes up for a lack of athletic ability with toughness and heavy hands. He’s won five of his last six bouts with this style, but can be dealt with by a more explosive opponent.

Is Buckley that opponent? He’s certainly explosive, as we’ve seen with his flashy head kick knockouts over the years. However, he’s also not overly durable, meaning that Morono definitely stands a chance of wearing him down.

Overall, though, ‘New Mansa’ looks more dangerous at 170 pounds, and stylistically, at least, he is a bad match for Morono. With that in mind the pick is Buckley via KO.

In what could be a lightweight thriller, Drew Dober takes on Ricky Glenn. One of the heaviest hitters in the division, Dober is also one of the most reckless fighters at 155 pounds, and that combination makes him one of the most exciting to watch, too.

Glenn, meanwhile, is more of a grappler than a striker, but he’s no less aggressive and reckless. More to the point, Dober has shown issues on the ground before, meaning that there’s a genuine chance for ‘The Gladiator’ to win here.

With that said, Dober hits remarkably hard, and Glenn not only found himself on the wrong end of a KO last time out, he’s also ageing at 34. Therefore, the pick is Dober via KO.

In a light heavyweight clash, Philipe Lins faces Ion Cutelaba. Another reckless, aggressive fighter, Cutelaba goes straight after his opponents with brutal punches and heavy takedowns. If he were more defensively sound, he’d be a title contender, but unfortunately, that isn’t the case.

The native of Moldova tends to run out of steam badly, and he’s also not all that durable. Unsurprisingly, then, he’s lost three of his last four bouts, although he did win last time out.

Lins is far slower than Cutelaba, but he does hit hard and has solid fundamentals. The big question, though, is whether he can avoid the inevitable early rush from ‘The Hulk’. Based on what we’ve seen from him, it’s doubtful. He’s simply too plodding and doesn’t necessarily hit cleanly enough to take Cutelaba out. The pick is ‘The Hulk’ via TKO.

Finally, in a featherweight tilt, Alexander Hernandez faces Bill Algeo. This one will likely come down to whether Hernandez can avoid the takedown, as he’s a far better striker than Algeo, but may give up the advantage on the ground.

‘The Great Ape’ is an excellent wrestler, though, and that should mean he’s capable of keeping this one standing. Can he finish the tough Algeo, who has never been stopped via strikes? That doesn’t sound likely, and so the pick is Hernandez via decision.

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#4. UFC Fight Night: The Prelims

Picks in bold

UFC strawweight bout: Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Diana Belbita

UFC bantamweight bout: Chris Gutierrez vs. Montel Jackson

UFC bantamweight bout: Aoriqileng vs. Johnny Munoz Jr

UFC flyweight bout: Nate Maness vs. Mateus Mendonca

UFC strawweight bout: Kanako Murata vs. Vanessa Demopoulos

UFC flyweight bout: Montana De La Rosa vs. JJ Aldrich