UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Ian Machado Garry vs. Carlos Prates

The UFC heads to Kansas City, Missouri next weekend. This Fight Night event is a pretty solid card, punctuated by a great headliner.

UFC Fight Night: Ian Machado Garry vs. Carlos Prates features far more ranked fighters than usual Fight Night fare, making it well worth watching.

So with one of the best welterweight bouts of 2025 on tap, the fans in Kansas City could be in for some great action. Below are the predicted outcomes for the event.

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#1. UFC welterweight bout: Ian Machado Garry vs. Carlos Prates

It's fair to say that many of the UFC's Fight Night headliners this year have been underwhelming. Thankfully, the same cannot be said for the headliner that the Kansas City fans will be treated to.

Not only are Ian Machado Garry and Carlos Prates both ranked in the top 15 at 170 pounds, but they're among the most exciting prospects in the welterweight division right now.

Essentially, this is one of those fights where the winner doesn't really matter. It's highly likely that the loser will end up fighting their way into title contention at some stage anyway.

So will 'The Future' or 'The Nightmare' come out on top of this five-rounder?

Right now, it's probably fair to say that Prates has more hype around him. A member of the vaunted Fighting Nerds team alongside Caio Borralho, Mauricio Ruffy and Jean Silva, the Brazilian debuted in the octagon just over a year ago.

Few fans had heard of him at that point, but it didn't take him long to make an impact. After stopping Trevin Giles and Charles Radtke, he destroyed stalwarts Li Jingliang and Neil Magny, crashing into the rankings as a result.

From what we've seen of Prates, his striking power is his biggest strength. He literally knocked Li around the octagon before finishing him in the second round, and put Magny away with what looked like a glancing blow to the top of the head.

Thus far, Prates has shown no weaknesses, but in some ways, that's more of a problem than anything else. He's fended off a couple of takedowns, most notably from Magny, but hasn't shown tremendous wrestling or anything like that. As for cardio, it's hard to say as most of his fights have ended before the third round.

We do know that Prates has a stout chin, as he did absorb some big shots from Li, who is a pretty good hitter in his own right. Outside of that, he is one of those fighters who has yet to be pushed.

The same cannot be said for Garry. He is currently ranked at No.7, but there's an argument that he should be higher.

The Irishman is currently 8-1 in the octagon, and while he hasn't shown the same lethal finishing skills as Prates, he's more battle-tested and proven overall.

Garry does have some finishes to his name, notably over Daniel Rodriguez and Kenan Song.

For the most part, though, he's made his name by surgically outstriking the likes of Geoff Neal, Magny and Michael 'Venom' Page.

It was his last fight that showed just how good he can be, though. Faced with top contender Shavkat Rakhmonov - a fighter widely recognised as the most dangerous man at 170 pounds - 'The Future' fought brilliantly.

Sure, he came out on the wrong end of a decision, but nobody had ever pushed 'The Nomad' so hard. Rakhmonov probably landed the better shots and had more control overall, but Garry actually outlanded him by volume and came close to finishing him with a fifth round choke.

Based on this, then, Garry has a lot of advantages here. He's fought better opponents, is battle-tested over five rounds, and is more proven in all areas than Prates.

Should this lead him to a win? It's definitely possible, but Prates may have a bit of an x-factor on his side in the form of a four-inch reach advantage, even if he's slightly shorter than the Irishman.

Whether Garry can stay on the outside and keep 'The Nightmare' at the end of his strikes, then, is debatable. And if this fight ends up turning into a shootout, it's hard not to side with Prates based on that insane power.

Overall, though, it's difficult to pick a fighter who, realistically, we still don't know all that much about. He's done brilliantly so far, but he hasn't proven as much as his teammates Silva and Borralho, and against a poised, smart fighter like Garry, that could land him in trouble.

We should probably expect an exciting fight here, and if anyone lands a finish, it's likely to be Prates. However, the smarter pick is 'The Future'.

The Pick: Machado Garry via decision

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#2. UFC light-heavyweight bout: Anthony Smith vs. Zhang Mingyang

To call this a curious choice for a co-headliner would be an understatement, particularly with some of the strong fights elsewhere on the card.

It pits a fighter who intends to retire after the bout in Anthony Smith, against a largely unheralded foe in the form of Mingyang Zhang.

It seems clear that this is a bone being thrown to 'Lionheart' by the UFC's brass, who probably appreciate his lengthy period as a company man of sorts. So can Smith pull off one final, stirring win?

It's debatable. Just last year, the former title challenger was able to submit a highly-touted prospect in the form of Vitor Petrino with a guillotine choke. It's not like he's been on a horrible losing streak, and he also beat a solid foe in Ryan Spann in 2023.

The issue, though, is that his durability seems to be waning with every fight. Once widely known for his incredible toughness - surviving multiple teeth being knocked out against Glover Teixeira, for instance - father time has now caught up with him.

Smith has suffered some bad knockout finishes recently, including against Magomed Ankalaev, Khalil Rountree Jr and most recently, Dominick Reyes.

Never the most natural athlete, this older, slower version of Smith is clearly vulnerable. Whether Zhang can take advantage remains to be seen.

'The Mountain Tiger' definitely has the credentials when it comes to violence. He's 18-6 and has never won via decision, instead knocking out 12 foes and submitting six.

The native of China also hasn't lost since 2019, and is 3-0 in the octagon, violently dispatching all three of his foes. His stoppage of Brendson Ribeiro in particular was one of the nastiest knockouts of 2024.

Whether Zhang is a better prospect than Petrino was is debatable. However, it's always risky picking a fighter who has already announced his retirement to win, particularly given Smith's durability issues.

Given how explosive Zhang has shown himself to be, then, this fight could be a breakout one for the Chinese star.

The Pick: Zhang via first-round KO

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#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card

In a featherweight clash, Giga Chikadze takes on David Onama. Flashy kickboxer Chikadze has not fought since his loss last summer to Arnold Allen, and this will be his shot at some redemption.

'Ninja' has some notable weapons, including a vicious body kick, and is also fast, even for a 145-pounder. His only losses in the octagon have come to Allen and Calvin Kattar, making him one of the more underrated featherweights on the roster.

Onama has a solid record in his own right, 13-2 with five wins in the octagon. However, he's never been in with anyone close to the level of Chikadze, and it's notable that in his loss to Nate Landwehr, he blew up badly.

'Silent Assassin' has a shot here due to Chikadze's long layoff, but it just feels unlikely that he'll be able to step up. The pick, then, is Chikadze via decision.

In a middleweight clash, Michel Pereira faces a fellow dangerous striker in Abus Magomedov. This one could be a lot of fun to watch given the style of both men, as Pereira rarely has dull bouts and Magomedov has a strong reputation in his own right.

However, it feels more likely that Pereira will come out on top here. 'Demolidor' was exposed on the ground somewhat in his last fight, a defeat to Anthony Hernandez, but Magomedov is unlikely to look to take him down.

Considering Magomedov has a history of gassing out, then - most notably in his clash with Sean Strickland - this should be Pereira's to lose. The pick is Pereira via TKO.

In a welterweight fight, Randy Brown faces Nicolas Dalby. One of the oldest fighters on the roster at the age of 40, Dalby was unlucky not to extend his recent run to five wins in a row when he lost a close decision to Rinat Fakhretdinov last June.

At his best, 'Lokomotivo' is a very good technical striker with no glaring weaknesses save for his lack of natural explosiveness.

Brown, meanwhile, also suffered a tight loss to Bryan Battle in his last fight. 'Rude Boy' is one of the trickiest fighters at 170 pounds thanks to his lanky frame and ability to use it, particularly standing and in the clinch.

This one will be close to call, given the durability and experience of both men. However, Brown seems to be on the upward tilt of his career, so the pick is Brown via decision.

Finally, in a middleweight bout, Ikram Aliskerov takes on Andre Muniz. This one should be fascinating, as Aliskerov was considered one of the division's best prospects prior to his loss to Robert Whittaker, while Muniz was once ranked in the top ten.

The Brazilian earned that rank through his slick grappling, as he famously tapped out Jacare Souza in 2021. However, losses to Brendan Allen and Paul Craig set him back substantially.

Muniz will have a slight size advantage here, but that likely won't be enough. Aliskerov should be able to stop the takedown, and on the feet, he's the far more dangerous, explosive fighter. Whether he can take out 'Sergipano' is debatable, but Muniz has been knocked out five times before. The pick, then, is Aliskerov via KO.

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#4. UFC Fight Night: The Prelims

Picks in bold

UFC flyweight bout: Matt Schnell vs. Jimmy Flick

UFC lightweight bout: Evan Elder vs. Ahmad Sohail Hassanzada

UFC featherweight bout: Chris Gutierrez vs. John Castaneda

UFC bantamweight bout: Da'Mon Blackshear vs. Heili Alateng

UFC bantamweight bout: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Cameron Saaiman

UFC strawweight bout: Jacqueline Amorim vs. Polyana Viana

UFC featherweight bout: Timothy Cuamba vs. Roberto Romero

UFC bantamweight bout: Chelsea Chandler vs. Joselyne Edwards