UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Islam Makhachev vs. Bobby Green

#2. UFC middleweight division: Misha Cirkunov vs. Wellington Turman

Can Misha Cirkunov succeed in his second run at 185 lb?

Like the main event of this show, this co-headline bout has also been changed on relatively late notice. Initially, it would’ve seen Misha Cirkunov taking on Makhmud Muradov in a middleweight tilt. However, with Muradov out of action, Wellington Turman has stepped in with around a month’s notice.

Does that change the likely outcome? Perhaps. If nothing else, it feels like a more simple match for Cirkunov, who may well have been outgunned by the explosive striking of Muradov. So, can he beat Turman instead?

It’s difficult to say, given Cirkunov’s up-and-down career in the UFC. In 2016, he looked like possibly the hottest prospect in the light heavyweight division. He quickly destroyed the likes of Nikita Krylov and Ion Cutelaba with his brutal grappling style and heavy hands.

However, when faced with hard-hitting strikers like Volkan Oezdemir and Johnny Walker, the Latvian-Canadian basically wilted. That suggests that his chin simply wasn’t up to reaching the top of the division.

Following another KO loss – this time against Ryan Spann – Cirkunov dropped to 185 lb in late 2021. However, he suffered a decision loss to Krzysztof Jokto in a disappointing showing. Sure, Cirkunov’s chin didn’t fail him, but he definitely didn’t seem quite as powerful as he did at 205 lb. Eventually, he gave up enough takedowns to lose the bout.

Turman, though, looks like a more favorable opponent. A grappler and grinder by trade, he has found things hard going in the octagon against better athletes. Moreover, he has never looked like a quick or explosive fighter like the men who have defeated Cirkunov before.

This time, Cirkunov should be more comfortable with the cut to 185 lb. So it’s easy to imagine he won’t be outpowered by Turman in the way he was by the underrated Jotko.

It feels unlikely Cirkunov will be able to submit Turman, given the Brazilian’s jiu-jitsu skills. However, there’s definitely a chance he can outpower him enough to pound him out on the ground, instead. The pick, therefore, is the Latvian-Canadian.

The Pick: Cirkunov via third-round TKO.