UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis

This weekend sees the UFC head back to Brazil for its latest Fight Night event, and unsurprisingly, the show has a heavily Brazilian feel.

UFC Fight Night: Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis features a main card that sees six Brazilian natives against six overseas fighters, and it’s clear who the fans will be rooting for.

Fans watching at home, of course, will simply be hoping for a night of exciting action in the octagon.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis.

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#1. UFC heavyweight bout: Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis

Jailton Almeida looks like a surefire future title contender [Image Credit: @malhadinho_ufc on Instagram]

The UFC’s heavyweight division is in a fascinating place right now. Champion Jon Jones is now on the shelf, but he and Stipe Miocic are likely on their way out soon anyway, and a new generation of fighters are forcing their way through.

We’ll see an interim champ crowned later in the month when Sergei Pavlovich faces Tom Aspinall, but there’s every chance that Jailton Almeida could find his way into contention in the near future.

‘Malhadinho’ is perfect in the octagon at 5-0, and he’s been slowly increasing the difficulty of his opponents since his debut. Most recently, he dispatched Jairzinho Rozenstruik with an easy first-round submission, barely breaking sweat in the process.

Almeida is not the biggest heavyweight, but in the current age, that doesn’t matter. He’s a fantastic athlete, and while we don’t know too much about his striking, his ground game is fantastic.

The Brazilian has an excellent grasp of range and that allows him to set up his takedowns, and when he has an opponent down, he’s almost impossible to shake off. From there, he either hammers his foes with brutal ground-and-pound, or hunts for a submission and gets it.

Initially, this weekend’s event would’ve seen him faced with a huge test in the form of Curtis Blaydes. This would’ve been a horribly tricky bout for him given Blaydes’ incredible wrestling skills and heavy hands.

However, with ‘Razor’ out, Derrick Lewis has stepped in. With no disrespect to ‘The Black Beast’, this should be an easier match for Almeida.

Lewis looked brilliant in his last fight, rolling back the clock to smash Marcos Rogerio de Lima after appearing to be in incredible shape.

Despite this, the former title challenger remains the same fighter he’s always been. He’s arguably the heaviest hitter in the division, with the ability to switch the lights off on any opponent in a split second. He’s also deceptively fast for a big guy.

However, on the ground, he still has tons of holes in his game, and if he’s planted on his back, he still has a tendency to attempt to power free, leaving him open for chokes.

Lewis can win this fight if he can land big in the early going, but at the age of 38, it’s hard to imagine him catching a fighter as skilled as ‘Malhadinho’ cleanly.

With that in mind, it’s more likely that Almeida takes him down, punishes him and then submits him in the first round, similarly to how Daniel Cormier did back in 2018.

The Pick: Almeida via first-round submission

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#2. UFC welterweight bout: Gabriel Bonfim vs. Nicolas Dalby

Gabriel Bonfim is still unbeaten in MMA [Image Credit: @gabrielbonfi on Instagram]

This weekend’s co-headliner does not feature any ranked fighters, but it should be fun nonetheless. The bout pits the unbeaten prospect Gabriel Bonfim against a hardened, underrated veteran in the form of Nicolas Dalby.

Could the winner find themselves in the top 15? It feels unlikely for Dalby, but if Bonfim can win impressively, taking his record to 16-0, there’s definitely an outside chance. So can he pull it off?

Based on what we’ve seen thus far, this one should be a classic striker vs. grappler fight. Bonfim’s nickname ‘Marretinha’ might translate to “little sledgehammer,” but he’s shown himself to be more of a ground fighter in his career.

The Brazilian has 12 wins via submission, including his two in the UFC. Both of those wins saw him grab opportunistic guillotine chokes, and took him just over two minutes combined.

Dalby, meanwhile, was once known as ‘The Sharpshooter’ for his sniper-like striking style. He isn’t a knockout artist by any means, stopping none of his opponents in the octagon, but he is defensively sound. More to the point, he holds six wins in the promotion, which isn’t to be sneezed at.

Essentially, Dalby can be outworked by a fighter who is capable of walking through his strikes to either ground him or land the heavier blows. However, he’s never been finished and only holds four losses to his name overall, which means if Bonfim can take him out, it’ll need something special.

Is ‘Marretinha’ that level of special? It’s honestly hard to say. We just don’t know enough about his skills overall, particularly if he’s going to be capable of submitting ‘Danish Dynamite’.

With that said, Dalby’s losses to the likes of Tim Means suggest he’s not a contender and that a high-end prospect should be able to find a way past him. It definitely won’t be easy, then, but the pick is Bonfim via decision.

The Pick: Bonfim via decision

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#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card

Talented grappler Caio Borralho features on this weekend's main card [Image Credit: @caioborralho on Instagram]

In a heavyweight bout, Rodrigo Nascimento takes on Don’Tale Mayes in a rematch. Based on what we’ve seen before, as well as their first meeting, this fight isn’t likely to be a technical classic.

Both men fight with an aggressive yet loose style, and neither are all that quick on the feet. Last time out, though, Nascimento won with a rear-naked choke, suggesting he has a large advantage on the mat. Given that the Brazilian is also on a two-fight win streak, there’s no reason to suspect he won’t repeat the trick, so the pick is ‘Yogi Bear’ via submission.

In an intriguing middleweight clash, Caio Borralho faces Abus Magomedov. At 4-0 in the octagon, Borralho could well be on the cusp of a top 15 ranking with a win here.

Magomedov, meanwhile, was rushed into a bout with Sean Strickland last time out and lost, but clearly possesses both talent and finishing ability.

Given Borralho isn’t renowned for his striking, Magomedov could win this one if he can keep things standing. However, the Brazilian has far more experience and genuinely excellent takedowns. With that in mind, the pick is Borralho via submission.

In a real clash of styles at middleweight, Armen Petrosyan takes on Rodolfo Vieira. There’s no doubt as to what these two will want to do; Petrosyan will look to keep the bout standing while Vieira will want it on the ground.

The worry for Petrosyan here is the fact that he was utterly dominated on the mat by Caio Borralho, who isn’t the grappler Vieira is. ‘The Black Belt Hunter’ isn’t as good a takedown artist as his fellow Brazilian, but he’s only likely to need one dominant position to win.

Petrosyan can win this bout, but he literally cannot let Vieira take him down if he wants to win, and given the chances of the Brazilian landing one takedown, it’s likely he’ll win by submission.

Finally, in a lightweight tilt, Ismael Bonfim faces veteran Vinc Pichel. Bonfim received a lot of hype in his octagon debut as he knocked out Terrance McKinney, but his second fight was not so good.

He suffered a one-sided submission defeat to Benoit Saint Denis and looked slightly out of his depth.

‘Marreta’ is clearly an explosive and dangerous striker, but Pichel has only ever lost to three fighters before and all three were powerful grapplers rather than strikers.

Overall, ‘From Hell’ is definitely capable of bullying Bonfim to the ground and working him over for a decision, but he’s also 40 years old and hasn’t fought since April 2022. With that considered, Bonfim via KO is the pick, but it’s easy to see this one going the other way, too.

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#4. UFC Fight Night: The Prelims

Picks in bold

UFC lightweight bout: Elves Brener vs. Esteban Ribovics

UFC bantamweight bout: Victor Hugo vs. Daniel Marcos

UFC welterweight bout: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos vs. Rinat Fakhretdinov

UFC light-heavyweight bout: Vitor Petrino vs. Modestas Bukauskas

UFC strawweight bout: Angela Hill vs. Denise Gomes

UFC featherweight bout: Lucas Alexander vs. David Onama

UFC strawweight bout: Eduarda Moura vs. Montserrat Ruiz

UFC lightweight bout: Kaue Fernandes vs. Marc Diakiese