UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Jan Blachowicz vs. Aleksandar Rakic

After an excellent pay-per-view, the UFC returns to its Las Vegas base this weekend for another Fight Night card, this time on the ESPN network.

UFC Fight Night: Jan Blachowicz vs. Aleksandar Rakic features two top-level light heavyweight bouts at the top of the card, as well as a number of other solid fights.

Sure, this event isn’t close to a pay-per-view-level slate, but it should be pretty fun either way, making it watchable for any MMA fans.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Jan Blachowicz vs. Aleksandar Rakic.

---

#1. UFC light heavyweight division: Jan Blachowicz vs. Aleksandar Rakic

Will Jan Blachowicz use his Polish power to take out Aleksandar Rakic this weekend?

Outside of the upcoming UFC light heavyweight title bout between champion Glover Teixeira and challenger Jiri Prochazka, this is about the biggest 205-pound fight that the promotion could’ve booked right now.

Former champion Jan Blachowicz is still ranked at No.1 and could argue he simply had an off night in his loss to Teixeira. Aleksandar Rakic, meanwhile, sits at No.4, with his only loss in the octagon coming in a highly-controversial bout with Volkan Oezdemir that most observers felt he deserved to win.

Essentially, the winner of this one is highly likely to receive the next title shot, unless Magomed Ankalaev really impresses in his upcoming fight with Anthony Smith. That means that neither man can afford to lose, but equally, they can’t afford to put on a stinker either.

Thankfully, neither man has been in too many stinkers over their time in the octagon. Rakic is somewhat short on finishes as he’s only picked up two in his seven-fight career with the UFC, but he’s also beaten both Smith and Thiago Santos.

Sure, neither bout was all that thrilling to watch, but the fact that the native of Austria was able to outpoint both men standing is, in itself, is highly impressive. Overall, ‘Rocket’ is a big light heavyweight, standing at 6’5” and possessing a 78” reach, and he knows how to use it.

However, it’s probably safe to say that Blachowicz is the heavier hitter of the two. His vaunted ‘Polish power’ has given him a total of four KO or TKO finishes in the octagon. Since he really hit his stride in 2019, only Teixeira has been able to beat him.

Blachowicz isn’t just a power-puncher, though. He sets up his big strikes by imposing a ramrod jab on his opponents, and more to the point, he’s also dangerous on the ground, too, as he holds a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.

Sure, he looked vulnerable on the ground against Teixeira, but to be fair, the Brazilian is one of the best grapplers in the history of the division, and there’s no shame in suffering a tapout loss to him.

More interestingly, unlike Santos and Smith, both former 185lbers, Rakic won’t hold a reach advantage here, even if he’s three inches taller than Blachowicz. That makes this one a tricky bout to pick.

It’s likely that one of two things will happen here. Either Rakic will keep Blachowicz on the end of his kicks and basically pick him apart for a decision, or the Polish fighter will catch him in an exchange and put him to sleep. Both are equally likely, but given his experience and the fact that it’s a five-rounder, Blachowicz is the pick.

The Pick: Blachowicz via third-round TKO

#2. UFC light heavyweight division: Ryan Spann vs. Ion Cutelaba

While the stakes in this light heavyweight bout aren’t nearly as high as the ones in the headliner, there’s definitely a chance that this could actually prove to be the more exciting fight on the night.

After all, while Ryan Spann and Ion Cutelaba aren’t the best 205lbers in the UFC, they do have six octagon finishes between them and they’ve also been finished on six occasions combined, too.

Cutelaba is perhaps the wildest fighter in the entire division when you consider the whole package. ‘The Hulk’ came into the UFC with a reputation as a brute wrestler, but he’s also a highly-effective striker, even if he’s technically not great on the feet.

The native of Moldova swings incredibly heavy shots, he’s ridiculously aggressive, and with his wrestling to fall back on, he’s a danger to any fighter he faces. Sure, he tends to gas out and isn’t the most durable, but if he was, he’d probably be holding the title right now.

Spann, meanwhile, is a lanky fighter with a ridiculous 81.5” reach. He uses that to the best of his ability, tending to fight behind a jab which sets up his bigger strikes. He’s scored KOs of Misha Cirkunov and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, and also had Johnny Walker on the ropes before a surprising turnaround.

Ignoring his rear-naked choke loss to Anthony Smith, which appeared to come from the fact that Spann choked in his first headline bout, that Walker fight probably explains why ‘Superman’ hasn’t quite reached the top of the division yet.

Simply put, he doesn’t appear to be the most durable fighter in the division, as three of his five losses have come via knockout, with his defeat to Walker coming from some odd elbows that didn’t really appear to land that cleanly.

Given Cutelaba’s wild aggression, then, the most likely outcome here seems to be that ‘The Hulk’ will rush Spann early and probably pick up a finish. If he doesn’t, then ‘Superman’ has the skills to win, but even then, Cutelaba’s power is hard to argue with.

The Pick: Cutelaba via first-round KO

#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card

In a bantamweight fight, Davey Grant takes on Louis Smolka. Given that both men are coming off losses – Grant has lost his last two in fact – this could be a loser-leaves-town bout. Thankfully, both men usually put on exciting fights, with Smolka being more of a striker while Grant can basically fight in all areas.

Overall, though, Grant is perhaps the more durable fighter and the fact that he recently went the distance with Adrian Yanez and Marlon Vera, two incredibly dangerous opponents, suggests he’s got plenty in the tank to offer. The pick is ‘Dangerous Davey’ via decision.

In a flyweight bout, Katlyn Chookagian faces Amanda Ribas. This one is actually fascinating as if Ribas can find a way to win, there’s every chance she could claim a future shot at current flyweight queen Valentina Shevchenko.

The Brazilian has slick ground skills, solid takedown defense and improving striking, but she will be giving up a lot of size to ‘Blonde Fighter’, namely five inches of height. Given Chookagian’s willingness to slow a bout down and simply pick her opponents apart, this could be tricky for Ribas. Chookagian via decision is the pick.

At lightweight, Frank Camacho takes on Manuel Torres. Camacho has just two UFC wins to his name, but his exciting brawling style has meant he’s been kept around for much longer than many people would’ve expected.

Torres, on the other hand, looks like a very dangerous finisher in all areas. From the available footage on him, including an appearance on Dana White’s Contender Series, he’s got the potential to be a star. This looks like a showcase bout for him, so Torres via submission is the pick.

Finally, Jake Hadley faces Allan Nascimento in a flyweight bout. Hadley is making his octagon debut, while Nascimento was last seen in the UFC in a loss to Tagir Ulanbekov last October. This is a tricky one to pick as Nascimento has more experience, but Hadley looks like an exciting prospect, so the pick is ‘White Kong’ via TKO.

---

#4: UFC Fight Night: The Prelims

Picks in bold

Women's flyweight bout: Viviane Araujo vs. Andrea Lee

Lightweight bout: Michael Johnson vs. Alan Patrick

Women's strawweight bout: Virna Jandiroba vs. Angela Hill

Flyweight bout: Tatsuro Taira vs. Carlos Candelario

Middleweight bout: Nick Maximov vs. Andre Petroski