UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Jessica Andrade vs. Erin Blanchfield

After a major pay-per-view this past Saturday, the UFC returns to Las Vegas this upcoming weekend for its latest Fight Night event.

UFC Fight Night: Jessica Andrade vs. Erin Blanchfield features a headliner that has been changed on late notice, as well as a main card lacking in big-name talent.

However, despite this, there should be at least a handful of fun fights to watch this weekend, and hopefully some violent finishes too.

With that in mind, here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Jessica Andrade vs. Erin Blanchfield.

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#1. UFC flyweight division: Jessica Andrade vs. Erin Blanchfield

A title shot could be within Erin Blanchfield's grasp if she can beat Jessica Andrade

Initially, the headline bout this weekend would’ve seen former UFC flyweight title challenger Taila Santos taking on hot prospect Erin Blanchfield.

Given Santos had pushed champion Valentina Shevchenko hard in her last bout, it felt likely that whoever won the fight between her and Blanchfield would be granted a title shot.

However, it was announced this weekend that Santos would be unable to compete, with another former title challenger in Jessica Andrade taking her place.

So how do these two match up, and will the winner still be likely to fight for the title in their next trip to the octagon?

Interestingly, the match against Santos seemed to favor Blanchfield in some ways. From what we’ve seen from ‘Cold Blooded’ thus far into her octagon career, she’s a monstrous grappler, particularly from top position, something that could’ve paid off against the Brazilian.

However, it’s safe to say that while Santos is a fine fighter, she doesn’t really possess the same kind of explosive power that Andrade does.

‘Bate Estaca’ hits harder than most female fighters in UFC history, with her finishes of Katlyn Chookagian, Karolina Kowalkiewicz and Cynthia Calvillo in particular being brutal.

The Brazilian is also no dummy on the ground and delivered the first ever standing arm-triangle choke win seen in the octagon against Amanda Lemos in 2022.

Essentially, then, it’s likely that if she can hit Blanchfield cleanly, she’ll be able to win this bout. Very few fighters have the ability to stand up to Andrade’s punches, and it’s hard to imagine ‘Cold Blooded’ being one of them.

Despite this, ‘Bate Estaca’ isn’t unbeatable on the feet. She was stopped violently by Weili Zhang in their 2019 title bout and was outstruck by Rose Namajunas and Joanna Jedrzejczyk, too.

However, it feels unlikely that Blanchfield can do the same, given she’s never shown any evidence of possessing the power of Zhang or the rapid jabs of Namajunas or Jedrzejczyk.

With that said, Andrade is taking this fight on late notice, and while she’s only 31 years old, 2023 will mark a decade of action inside the octagon for her. She’s also been stopped on the ground before and may not have time to prepare for the takedowns and ground control of Blanchfield.

Overall, then, this is a very difficult fight to pick, particularly as Andrade is such a different fighter to Santos. The fact that ‘Cold Blooded’ has had ample time to prepare, though, could make the difference. The pick is Blanchfield by late TKO.

The Pick: Blanchfield via fourth-round TKO

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#2. UFC light heavyweight division: Jordan Wright vs. Zac Pauga

Jordan Wright is set to co-headline this weekend's event

Quite how this fight has found itself in the co-headliner slot of even a smaller Fight Night event is an utter mystery.

It pits a fighter in Wright who is riding a three-fight losing streak against an opponent in Pauga who has fought just once in the UFC, suffering a bad loss to Mohammed Usman last August.

Does either man have much to offer? Perhaps. Of the two, it’s Wright who has more experience. ‘The Beverley Hills Ninja’ came into the promotion with some decent hype thanks to his 10-0 record and entertained in his win over Ike Villanueva in his octagon debut.

However, since then, he’s shown a worrying penchant for leaving himself wide open to big strikes. It’s how he’s lost his fight with Joaquin Buckley, Bruno Silva and Dusko Todorovic, and it’s doubtful that a move to 205 pounds will help him in that area.

That could mean that Pauga has the advantage here. A former NFL player with the Houston Texans, ‘The Ripper’ rose to fame last year on TUF 30, making the finals before suffering that loss to Usman.

However, it’s safe to say that he was outsized as a heavyweight and 205 pounds could be a much better fit for him. He doesn’t have much experience, with just seven professional wins to his name, but he’s shown some explosive power and strong wrestling.

The downside to Pauga is the fact that he’s about to turn 35 years old, but to be fair, if he can retain his athleticism then he could be a threat. Overall, he should be able to win this fight, purely because Wright’s durability has looked so poor in recent bouts.

The pick, therefore, is Pauga via TKO.

The Pick: Pauga via first-round TKO

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#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card

Experienced veteran Jim Miller features on this weekend's main card

In a heavyweight bout, octagon debutant Jamal Pogues faces Josh Parisian. With a record of 9-3, Pogues doesn’t look like a hot prospect per say, and is likely to be more of a mid-level fighter if he can establish himself in the UFC. Based on his previous bouts, it looks like submission defense is an issue for him, while he’s a capable striker.

Parisian, on the other hand, is somewhat plodding, but definitely hits with power. He’s shown some problems absorbing punishment during his octagon tenure, but to be fair, he’s also been fighting heavy hitters. Expect this one to be a sloppy bout that will hopefully deliver a finish, but the pick is Parisian via decision.

At light heavyweight, William Knight takes on Marcin Prachnio. After six bouts in the octagon, the book seems to be written on Knight now. He’s a wildly heavy hitter with fast hands, but he’s also not that durable and can be outworked.

Prachnio, on the other hand, has won two of his last three bouts, but his durability is poor and he’s always struggled with explosive fighters.

Essentially, Prachnio can win this fight if he can weather an early storm and outwork Knight down the stretch, but whether he can weather that storm is doubtful. It feels much more likely that Knight will simply land something heavy and nasty early on, so the pick is ‘The Knightmare’ via KO.

Finally, a lightweight tilt pits Jim Miller against Alexander Hernandez. This one should be a contender for the Fight of the Night award, based on the history of both men inside the octagon.

Remarkably, despite being 39 years old and having debuted in the UFC in 2008, Miller is on the better run right now. He’s won his last three bouts, finishing two via KO and the other via submission.

Hernandez, meanwhile, is on a two-fight skid. While he possesses powerful wrestling and explosive power in his hands, he definitely hasn’t developed the way that some fans figured he might when he knocked out Beneil Dariush in 2018.

This one should probably come down to whether Miller can avoid taking a big shot from Hernandez early. If he can do that, and if he can get his younger foe to the ground, then there’s definitely the chance that he’ll be able to outwork him.

Hernandez has a puncher’s chance, but overall, this feels like the kind of fight tailor-made for Miller to win right now, so the pick is the New Jersey native via decision.

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#4. UFC Fight Night: The Prelims

Picks in bold

UFC bantamweight division: Lina Lansberg vs. Mayra Bueno Silva

UFC featherweight division: Jamall Emmers vs. Khusein Askhabov

UFC light-heavyweight division: Ovince Saint Preux vs. Philipe Lins

UFC lightweight division: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Evan Elder

UFC welterweight division: AJ Fletcher vs. Themba Gorimbo

UFC flyweight division: Clayton Carpenter vs. Juancamilo Ronderos