UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Ketlen Vieira vs. Miesha Tate

#2. UFC welterweight division: Michael Chiesa vs. Sean Brady

Michael Chiesa has been largely successful since moving to 170lbs in 2018

It might not get much attention from the UFC's more casual fans, but this welterweight bout could be the best one on this card. Will the winner head into a UFC title shot against Kamaru Usman? Probably not – but there’s definitely a chance they could get there in time.

Of the two, Michael Chiesa is obviously the more well-known commodity. The winner of TUF 15 back in 2012, ‘Maverick’ floated around the UFC for years as a high level lightweight, but not really one who was going to contend for the title.

However, a move to 170lbs in 2018 completely changed his career around. He reeled off four straight wins, including two over high-level contenders in Rafael dos Anjos and Neil Magny, before being derailed somewhat by Vicente Luque in August.

Chiesa’s game is all about his strength, power and top control. Not a natural striker despite his lanky frame, ‘Maverick’ tends to rush his opponents in order to clinch with them. He then looks to drag them down in order to abuse them with ground-and-pound or hunt for chokes.

His weaknesses are pretty clear: if an opponent can keep him standing, then he’s open to being hit. He’s also surprisingly susceptible to submission attacks, with four of his five UFC losses coming via tapout.

So can Sean Brady capitalize on those weaknesses? Based on what we’ve seen from him so far, it is possible.

Brady hasn’t garnered much attention to date, but he’s gone 4-0 in the UFC. He hasn’t been fighting scrubs either, as he dealt with Court McGee, Ismail Naurdiev and Jake Matthews impressively – finishing the latter with an arm triangle choke.

A Gracie jiu-jitsu student, Brady clearly has a high-level grappling game and, like Chiesa, he possesses some remarkable wrestling skills considering he didn’t achieve anything noteworthy in that sport at the collegiate level.

He’s also a sizeable welterweight – albeit somewhat shorter than the 6’1” Chiesa – and seems to have a solid striking game too, largely based around his boxing skills.

Ignoring the gap in wrestling credentials, Brady seems to fight a lot like Chris Weidman did in his early days in the UFC, largely using his striking skills to set up a more dangerous grappling arsenal.

Basically, this should come down to whether Brady can prevent Chiesa from imposing his will on him with his takedowns. If Chiesa finds he can get Brady down and stick to him like glue, then he’s likely to pull off a decision win based on back control and choke attempts.

However, if he can’t do that, then there’s every chance that Brady can catch him with something nasty in the transition, similar to how Luque did in Chiesa’s last fight.

Overall, ‘Maverick’ should be the favorite and he’s the pick here, but Brady is a very lively underdog and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see him pull it off.

The Pick: Chiesa via unanimous decision