UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas 2

The UFC kickstarts their 2025 campaign next weekend. The first event of the year is, unsurprisingly, a Fight Night card at the Las Vegas APEX.

UFC Fight Night: Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas 2 is not exactly the most loaded card, but hopefully the event will produce some good action.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas 2.

---

#1. UFC strawweight bout: Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas

This headlining bout should be an interesting fight to watch, with several different narratives to follow. It is a rematch of a bout that feels like it took place just yesterday, but in fact, went down back in October 2019 - over five years ago now.

Back then, both Mackenzie Dern and Amanda Ribas were considered among the better prospects in the UFC at 115 pounds. With two wins to her name, and a stellar grappling background, Dern was probably the more hyped fighter.

However, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu ace couldn't come close to a takedown against Ribas, who picked her off standing for a three-round decision. It exposed a hole of sorts in Dern's game, and, arguably, the hole has never been fully closed.

Dern is a far better fighter now, of course. She's in much better shape than she was in 2019 and has developed her striking a lot over the years, while never losing her magical ground game.

However, while she's picked up huge wins over fighters like Nina Nunes, Virna Jandiroba, and Angela Hill, her wrestling has still lagged behind the rest of her skills.

This has meant that she's still susceptible to taking a loss on the feet, something that has haunted her against opponents like Yan Xiaonan and Jessica Andrade.

Ribas, on the other hand, has struggled with consistency, largely because she's fluctuated between 115 pounds and 125 pounds, often seemingly for no rhyme or reason.

Overall, she's still a very good striker with strong takedown defense. While she is a decent grappler in her own right, there's no way she can compete with Dern on the ground.

Therefore, the big question here is whether Dern can get Ribas to the ground and keep her there for an extended period. Do that, and she should win, particularly given Ribas' issues on the ground against the likes of Maycee Barber and Marina Rodriguez.

However, Ribas has tended to do better at 115 pounds, most recently knocking out Luana Pinheiro. She also may hold a psychological advantage thanks to her earlier win.

The x factor here, though, could be the five rounds. Dern has gone the distance three times, and while she's lost twice, her cardio might be more reliable than a fighter not always used to cutting weight to make a limit.

The smart money is probably on Ribas repeating the feat from their last bout in this one. Given Dern's physical shape and added experience since then, though, it might be worth the risk to bet on her to get the job done.

The Pick: Dern via fourth-round submission

---

#2. UFC welterweight bout: Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Carlston Harris

In essence, this co-headliner is the kind of fight that gets fans frustrated with these APEX cards. Neither Santiago Ponzinibbio or Carlston Harris are close to the top fifteen at 170 pounds, and while this fight could be exciting, what are the real consequences?

Realistically, the best we can hope for here is a violent finish, but that could happen in any fight. Still, in the current climate, we can expect a lot more co-headliners like this.

Who will win, then? Of the two men, it's fair to say that Ponzinibbio is the more proven.

A few years back, 'Gente Boa' did look like a genuine title threat. The Argentine picked up huge wins over the likes of Mike Perry, Gunnar Nelson and Neil Magny to climb into the top ten.

However, a long injury layoff turned him into the forgotten man at welterweight, and when he returned, he looked like a shadow of his former self. Apparently aged overnight, Ponzinibbio suffered a bad TKO loss to Li Jingliang.

Since that loss, he's won just twice, outbrawling Miguel Baeza and Alex Morono, but losing to the likes of Kevin Holland and Muslim Salikhov.

Ponzinibbio's striking skills still exist, but he's just not as quick as he once was, nor is he close to as durable. Essentially, one could see him as a poor man's Tony Ferguson of sorts, although he's perhaps not as far gone as 'El Cucuy'.

Harris, meanwhile, has shown flashes of being a really dangerous finisher at times, both on the ground and standing. The native of Guyana has only lost twice, both times via KO, but both losses came to notable heavy hitters in Shavkat Rakhmonov and Khaos Williams.

The issue for Harris is that at the age of 37, he's too old to be considered a real prospect and has probably already hit his athletic ceiling. The question here, then, is whether he's good enough to finish Ponzinibbio, a better fighter than any he's beaten before.

Overall, despite his deterioration, Ponzinibbio should probably be favored here. 'Gente Boa' has not really been blown away outside of his loss to Li, and he was able to go three rounds with Holland before going down.

Harris, meanwhile, isn't defensively sound, and at the age of 37, probably isn't quick enough to avoid being beaten to the punch if the fight gets wild.

The pick, therefore, is the Argentine, probably via TKO.

The Pick: Ponzinibbio via second round KO

---

#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card

In a middleweight bout, Cesar Almeida takes on Abdul Razak Alhassan. This one is likely to take place standing, as Almeida is a former kickboxer of some regard, while Alhassan is a dangerous power puncher.

Almeida has yet to really translate his kickboxing success from GLORY into the octagon, although he has gone 2-1 thus far in his career with the promotion. However, this one might be a better fight for him.

Alhassan has insane power in his hands, but he's also very wild and leaves himself open for the counter. More to the point, 'Judo Thunder' doesn't have the strongest chin, and has been hurt and knocked out before.

It's a risky game for anyone standing with Alhassan, but Almeida should have the skills to win here. The pick is Almeida via KO.

In another middleweight clash, Chris Curtis faces Roman Kopylov. Both of these fighters have reached the top fifteen before, so this could be a good fight.

Of the two, Curtis is probably the better known fighter. 'Action Man' holds some good wins over the likes of Brendan Allen and Joaquin Buckley, but has hit a bit of a slide recently, winning just one of his last four. Overall, he's a hard hitter who is the classic jack-of-all-trades type.

Kopylov is widely known for his heavy-handed striking, as he put together a four-fight win streak with all four wins coming via KO between 2022 and 2023. On the ground, though, he's tended to struggle.

This one could really go either way, but Curtis not being the most natural wrestler may cause issues for him. Kopylov is probably the slightly cleaner striker, so the pick is Kopylov via decision.

In a featherweight tilt, Christian Rodriguez faces Austin Bashi. Rodriguez saw a four-fight win streak snapped in his last fight, and is also probably more infamous for multiple weight misses at 135 pounds than anything else.

Bashi, meanwhile, is making his octagon debut, and he looks like a very dangerous prospect at 13-0. It's a risky pick given his lack of top-level experience, but Bashi does look well-rounded, skilled, and with Rodriguez not really impressing at 145 pounds, the newcomer seems like a good bet. The pick is Bashi via decision.

Finally, at welterweight, Punahele Soriano takes on Uros Medic. This one should be exciting, as both men tend to finish their foes - or end up being finished themselves - making a decision difficult to imagine.

Of the two, though, it feels like Medic is perhaps more dangerous. His lethal striking earned him big wins over Tim Means and Matthew Semelsberger in recent fights, and while his ground game has looked ropey at times, Soriano isn't the type to take advantage.

The pick, then, is Medic via TKO in what will likely be a bonus-earning performance.

---

#4. UFC Fight Night: The Prelims

Picks in bold

UFC flyweight bout: Jose Johnson vs. Felipe Bunes

UFC middleweigh bout: Marco Tulio vs. Ihor Potieria

UFC lightweight bout: Thiago Moises vs. Trey Ogden

UFC welterweight bout: Preston Parsons vs. Andreas Gustafsson

UFC flyweight bout: Ernesta Kareckaite vs. Nicolle Caliari

UFC light-heavyweight bout: Magomed Ghadziyasulov vs. Bruno Lopes

UFC strawweight bout: Fatima Kline vs. Victoria Dudakova

UFC lightweight bout: Nurullo Aliev vs. Yanal Ashmouz