UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Mackenzie Dern vs. Marina Rodriguez

This weekend sees the UFC present another event from their Apex in Las Vegas. UFC Fight Night: Mackenzie Dern vs. Marina Rodriguez will go down on October 9.

The event will feature a battle of top strawweight contenders in the main event, as well as a number of solid fights on the undercard.

With that considered, here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Mackenzie Dern vs. Marina Rodriguez.

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#1. UFC strawweight division: Mackenzie Dern vs. Marina Rodriguez

Mackenzie Dern may be able to capture a UFC strawweight title shot with a win at the weekend

Current UFC strawweight champ Rose Namajunas is set to defend her title against former champ Weili Zhang in a rematch in November. Since the rematch was announced, many have suggested that the UFC isn't keen on giving Carla Esparza a title shot. With that in mind, there's a lot at stake in this weekend's main event.

With Mackenzie Dern currently ranked at No.4 and Marina Rodriguez at No.6, there’s every chance that an impressive performance from either woman here could net them a title shot in 2022. So, which fighter is more likely to pull out the win? On the face of it, this is a classic match of grappler vs. striker. Dern is arguably the most credentialed grappler in the UFC right now, while Rodriguez is a talented kickboxer with six knockout wins to her name.

It’d be easy to claim that both fighters are so much more than that, but the truth is that would be a stretch of sorts. Dern does have some striking skills to speak of. She’s certainly got power, as we saw when she decked Amanda Cooper in their fight in 2018. Also, her clash with Virna Jandiroba in late 2020 saw her display some major improvements standing.

However, she’s still lacking the technique needed to compete with someone like Rodriguez on the feet. That's because she’s largely a boxing-heavy striker going up against a far more rounded opponent.

On the ground, though, Dern is genuinely deadly. A Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt who has won countless grappling titles over the years, her submission game now seems to have adjusted perfectly to the octagon. In recent fights, we’ve seen her submit Nina Nunes, Randa Markos and Hannah Cifers with nasty holds. It’s not like any of the three are neophytes on the ground either.

Rodriguez, on the other hand, has had major issues on the ground in the UFC, even in fights she’s won. Her draw with Cynthia Calvillo saw her lose one round badly on the ground despite dominating her opponent on the feet. Naturally, Esparza completely outgrappled her when the fight hit the mat.

Worryingly for Rodriguez, Dern has a far more venomous ground game than either woman and is far more likely to go for a submission to put her away than the other opponents she’s faced in the octagon thus far. Also, judging by the beating she absorbed at the hands of Amanda Ribas in 2019, Dern is likely tough enough to withstand anything that Rodriguez is likely to throw at her.

With that in mind, the pick is Dern. The fight is likely to hit the ground at least once across the five rounds. When it does, it feels likely that Dern will end things.

The Pick: Dern via third round submission

Here are the Latest UFC Predictions by Sportskeeda

#2. UFC welterweight division: Randy Brown vs. Jared Gooden

Randy Brown's last UFC fight saw him choke out Alex Oliveira

Quite why this welterweight clash has been made the co-main event on this UFC card is anyone’s guess. Both men are coming off wins, but Jared Gooden is 1-2 in the UFC and certainly isn’t likely to climb into title contention any time soon.

Is Randy Brown any more likely, despite his superior experience in the UFC? In all honesty, the answer is no. ‘Rude Boy’ did look good in a submission win over Alex Oliveira at UFC 261, but prior to that he’d been violently stopped by Vicente Luque.

And with an overall UFC record of 7-4, it’s probably safe to say that the native of Jamaica is simply too inconsistent to really climb to the top. However, Brown is a highly exciting fighter who tends to finish most of his fights, meaning that in the very least, this one should be fun to watch.

The major advantage ‘Rude Boy’ appears to hold here is his size and length. His reach is 78”, just one inch longer than Gooden’s. However, he stands at 6’3” and is remarkably lanky for a 170lber. If he can keep Gooden at the end of his strikes, then ‘Nite Train’ will find it hard to get any meaningful offense in.

However, based on his lone UFC win, a knockout of Niklas Stolze in July, Gooden does have big power in his hands. There’s more evidence for that in the fact that eight of his 18 career wins have come via KO.

And in that sense, Brown should probably be somewhat concerned. ‘Rude Boy’ has never really shown the best chin in the UFC, as we saw when he was knocked out by Niko Price’s hammer fists from the bottom.

However, based on what we’ve seen from both, Brown has the advantage in the majority of areas and has the most ways to win. With that considered, ‘Rude Boy’ is the pick.

The Pick: Brown via second round TKO

#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card

Hot prospect Phil Hawes features on this weekend's UFC main card

In a UFC flyweight bout, Tim Elliott will square off with Matheus Nicolau. After a horrible run between 2019 and 2020, which saw Elliott on the verge of being cut by the UFC, the former title challenger has rebounded nicely and is 2-0 in 2021.

Nicolau, meanwhile, is less heralded, but this dangerous Brazilian is on a three-fight win streak right now. He recently defeated the highly regarded Manel Kape via decision, albeit in semi-controversial fashion.

Overall this is a tricky one to call, as Nicolau is a slick finisher and Elliott does have a tendency to fall into submissions at times. However, the veteran’s size and power might be enough here, so Elliott, via decision, is the pick.

Switching to the women’s flyweight division, Sabina Mazo will take on Mariya Agapova. This should be a close one to call. Mazo is more proven in the UFC as ‘The Colombian Queen’ has three wins there. However, she’s also not the best finisher around.

Agapova, meanwhile, looked good in her octagon debut, which was a submission of Hannah Cifers. However, she then fell to Shana Dobson via knockout in a disappointing showing last time out. She also hasn’t fought in over a year, meaning the advantage should lie with Mazo, who will likely grind out a decision.

Finally, in an intriguing middleweight clash, Phil Hawes faces Deron Winn. This one sees two high-level wrestlers going at it. While Winn is the more credentialed in that aspect, fights like this tend to become striking battles.

If that’s the case, then the advantage may lie with Hawes, who has shown more power in his hands and a more varied striking attack. Whether he can finish Winn is another thing, meaning the pick is Hawes via decision.

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#4: UFC Fight Night: The Prelims

Picks in bold

Bantamweight division: Chris Gutierrez vs. Felipe Colares

Middleweight division: Jamie Pickett vs. Laureano Staropoli

Heavyweight division: Alexandr Romanov vs. Jared Vanderaa

Featherweight division: Charles Rosa vs. Damon Jackson

Women's strawweight division: Lupita Godinez vs. Sam Hughes

Lightweight division: Steve Garcia vs. Charlie Ontiveros