UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Manel Kape vs. Asu Almabayev

The UFC heads to Las Vegas for the first event of March next weekend. Unfortunately, this card is not a loaded one.

Taking place the weekend before a major pay-per-view, UFC Fight Night: Manel Kape vs. Asu Almabayev looks like a throwaway event of sorts.

Still, with a possible top contender's fight in the headline bout, the event will hopefully produce some good action.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Manel Kape vs. Asu Almabayev.

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#1. UFC flyweight bout: Manel Kape vs. Asu Almabayev

With current flyweight kingpin Alexandre Pantoja desperate for fresh opponents, the initially planned fight here between Manel Kape and Brandon Royval would've provided him with a new contender.

However, Royval was forced out of the clash earlier this month, forcing the promotion to change plans. They moved No. 8-ranked Asu Almabayev into the bout with No. 6-ranked Kape in what could well prove to be a better fight.

Sure, it feels harsh to suggest that Royval - who is ranked at No.1 - could be leapfrogged by either of these men, but the fact is that 'Raw Dawg' has already lost to Pantoja. In that sense, either Kape or Almabayev would be fresher.

To be fair, Kape has also lost to Pantoja before, but that fight came way back in 2021, and 'Starboy' has erased the memories of it since.

The native of Angola has won five of his last six bouts, and he's probably the most dangerous striker in the 125-pound division.

Kape essentially lives and dies by his explosive speed. Even by flyweight standards, he's quick, and he can leap in with a sudden, heavy striking flurry that can take his opponents out quickly.

When 'Starboy' has lost before, it either comes because he's been out grappled and held down, or he's not been able to land the big shot standing because of the threat of the takedown. The latter led directly to his last loss, to Muhammad Mokaev last year.

That should be worrying in this fight. Almabayev is unbeaten in the octagon at 4-0 and has won his last 17 fights in a row. More to the point, while he's only landed his takedowns at a 50% clip, he has been able to ground every foe he's faced to date at least once.

When you consider that, statistically, 'Zulfikar' is a better takedown artist than Mokaev, the big question here is whether Kape has made the adjustments to that kind of gameplan.

If he hasn't, then it's hard to see him gaining much success here. Almabayev is a solid enough striker, he isn't painfully slow, and he should be able to hold Kape at bay with the threat of his takedown, too.

When you add in the fact that while 'Zulfikar' has taken this fight on short notice, he was still preparing to fight Steve Erceg on the same night, this could prove to be a bad match for Kape.

Stylistically speaking, this one favors Almabayev, so unless his arsenal fails over five rounds, he's the pick to win.

The Pick: Almabayev via decision

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#2. UFC middleweight bout: Cody Brundage vs. Julian Marquez

Initially, this co-headliner would've featured TUF 32 winner Ryan Loder. This would've been a rare push for a TUF winner in the modern era, but unfortunately, Loder was forced out just before the turn of the year.

Instead, then, his intended opponent Cody Brundage will take on Julian Marquez in a bout that isn't exactly heavy on name value.

Given that Brundage and Marquez hold a combined UFC record of 7-9, too, it's hard to imagine the winner progressing that far in the middleweight division. The best we can honestly hope for is an exciting fight.

To be fair, that feels likely when Marquez is involved. 'The Cuban Missile Crisis' is on a three-fight losing streak and hasn't seen victory since April 2021, but he's only been the distance in seven octagon visits. He's also got a healthy mix of knockouts and submissions - both wins and losses - on his ledger.

Brundage has also had his share of issues, losing to the likes of Rodolfo Vieira, Bo Nickal, and Michal Oleksiejczuk, and he's defensively porous in all areas.

However, he has at least won more recently - scoring a TKO of Zachary Reese in December 2023 to claim a $50k performance bonus.

Given Reese dispatched Marquez last June, can we then expect Brundage to simply do the same? Well, not quite, as MMA math rarely works at any kind of level.

Despite this, Brundage should probably be favored. Not only has he got better wins on his record than Marquez, but given 'The Cuban Missile Crisis' has lost three in a row, all via TKO, it's easy to question whether his durability is shot.

In all honesty, this one could go either way as neither man is a truly elite-level fighter, neither is bulletproof and both have finishing skills in all areas. However, given he's won more recently, Brundage should be slightly favored.

The Pick: Brundage via second-round TKO

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#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card

In a lightweight bout, Nasrat Haqparast takes on Esteban Ribovics. This is a strong bout pitting a veteran on a lengthy win streak against a quickly rising prospect.

Despite being 29 years old, Haqparast has been around for a long time now. The German-born fighter way back in 2017, and has picked up some strong wins in the years that have followed.

Right now, he's on a four-fight win streak, most recently outpointing Jared Gordon in June. A smaller Kelvin Gastelum, Haqparast chains together solid punches and backs it up with a powerful wrestling game and some excellent cardio.

Ribovics, on the other hand, has proven to be a very dangerous striker. He turned the lights off on Terrance McKinney with a head kick last year and then out-brawled Daniel Zellhuber in a classic war in September.

This one should come down to whether Ribovics can keep Haqparast at range and land something nasty. His only loss came when his foe spammed takedowns at him, and even that was close. Given that Haqparast is more likely to exchange and has been knocked out before, the pick is Ribovics via TKO.

In a heavyweight clash, Austen Lane takes on Mario Pinto. Former NFL man Lane has hardly shone thus far in his octagon career, suffering two KO losses and grinding his way past Robelis Despaigne. So can he beat Pinto?

In all honesty, it's hard to say. Portugal's Pinto is a huge fighter who stands at 6ft 5in and weighs 265 pounds, and he did score a big knockout on Dana White's Contender Series. Given his overall inexperience, though, quite what he has to offer is a mystery.

Overall, though, given Lane's chinny nature - particularly against bigger fighters - the pick is Pinto via KO.

Finally, in a featherweight clash, Hyder Amil takes on William Gomis. Both of these men have looked impressive in their brief octagon careers, meaning this one could be an exciting bout.

Arguably, Amil has been more entertaining. He's violently dispatched both of his foes via KO, but he also hasn't been tested by anyone truly decent just yet.

Gomis, on the other hand, is more battle-tested. He's 4-0 in the octagon and while he's shown to be capable of flashy finishes, he's also won three decisions, including one over the talented Joanderson Brito.

This one is difficult to pick purely because Amil is a bit of an unknown quantity and could well prove to be a real talent, but the pick overall is Gomis via decision.

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#4. UFC Fight Night: The Prelims

Picks in bold

UFC featherweight bout: Ricardo Ramos vs. Chepe Mariscal

UFC bantamweight bout: Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. John Castaneda

UFC flyweight bout: Andrea Lee vs. JJ Aldrich

UFC welterweight bout: Danny Barlow vs. Sam Patterson

UFC flyweight bout: Montana de la Rosa vs. Luana Carolina

UFC featherweight bout: Danny Silva vs. Lucas Almeida

UFC flyweight bout: Charles Johnson vs. Ramazan Temirov