UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Marcin Tybura vs. Sergey Spivak 2

The UFC returns to the Las Vegas APEX this weekend for its latest Fight Night. To say this card is underwhelming would be an understatement.

UFC Fight Night: Marcin Tybura vs. Sergey Spivak 2 features a lower-end headliner from a star power perspective, and there's little else intriguing on the card, either.

Realistically, this is one of those events that adds credence to the theory that the promotion is spreading itself too thinly. However, as with any event, there's always the chance for some good action.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Marcin Tybura vs. Sergey Spivak 2.

---

#1. UFC heavyweight bout: Marcin Tybura vs. Sergey Spivak

In truth, this isn't the most alluring UFC main event that we've been treated to this year. This is for a couple of different reasons.

Firstly, neither Marcin Tybura nor Sergey Spivak have the biggest name value, even if they're both ranked in the top ten at heavyweight. Tybura currently sits at No.8 and Spivak at No.9, but both men have lost enough time to be considered gatekeepers rather than contenders.

Secondly, we've already seen the fight once before, back in 2020, before the COVID-19 pandemic. To be frank, it was hardly a barnburner.

Buried deep on the preliminary card, the fight started relatively well with both men landing big punches, but quickly slowed down as both men became tired. Eventually, the fight simply saw Tybura outpower the smaller Spivak and beat him down on the ground for a decision.

Has enough changed coming into this fight to make the outcome different? The honest answer is probably not.

Spivak remains the same fighter he's always been. 'The Polar Bear' will snack on fighters who lack defense on the ground like Greg Hardy and even Derrick Lewis, and he'll find a way to bully smaller opponents too.

However, unlike his nickname, the native of Moldova isn't the heavyweight division's biggest predator. He'll probably outweigh Tybura here, but his frame isn't as big and he's not as naturally powerful.

That means he's still liable to be bullied in his own right, particularly if his foe is a more dynamic striker - as Tom Aspinall and Ciryl Gane were - or if he can be put on his back like Tybura did last time.

Tybura has always been a solid fighter whose lone problem is basically his lack of natural athleticism. He isn't the outright biggest heavyweight, but he has a large, burly frame that allows him to be effective with thudding strikes both standing and on the ground.

The Polish fighter is capable of some surprising speed on the feet, but quicker strikers can make him look plodding at times. That, however, shouldn't be a problem here.

On the ground, meanwhile, 'Tybur' is brilliant from the top position. If he can move into a dominant spot, he's very difficult to escape and is adept at landing heavy shots to either win via TKO or decision or set up a submission, as he did in his bout with Tai Tuivasa.

In this fight, Tybura is neither up against a more athletic striker nor someone who can fend off his takedowns with enough frequency to force him to completely empty his gas tank.

Based on their first clash, it also feels unlikely that Spivak can ground Tybura in his own right, although if he could, it'd be interesting to see whether the Pole could escape.

The risk for 'Tybur' is probably that he's not getting any younger at the age of 38, and over five rounds, his cardio may not hold up too well. However, Spivak has never been five rounds in his own right, and it could be the case that Tybura can turn up the heat enough to put him away.

Either way, the pick is definitely the Polish fighter.

The Pick: Tybura via fourth-round TKO

---

#2. UFC featherweight bout: Damon Jackson vs. Chepe Mariscal

While this bout was not initially planned to act as co-headliner on this card, it is a solid enough fight that should provide some decent action.

On his second run in the UFC, Damon Jackson has quietly become a solid contender at featherweight, even if it feels unlikely he'll crack the top fifteen in the future.

'The Leech' has put together a strong record of 6-3, and he's beaten some good fighters in Mirsad Bektic, Pat Sabatini, and Alexander Hernandez.

Still a grappler at heart, Jackson is a willing striker but has shown issues with his chin, particularly in his fight with Ilia Topuria. Of course, Topuria has shown he can knock anyone out, but the fact that four of Jackson's losses have come via KO is disconcerting.

This issue could well give Chepe Mariscal some confidence. 'Machine Gun' has quickly built a reputation as a hard-hitting brawler over the course of his first three octagon bouts, most recently outduelling Morgan Charriere in an impressive showing.

Most notably, though, Mariscal wowed the fans with a crazy brawl against Trevor Peek that saw him eke out a tight decision.

Mariscal is not just a wild fighter, however. While his attacks look less measured than some, he is willing to mix things up with takedowns. Where he really shines is his ability to put a lot of pressure on his foes. He loves to back them up and bully them, something he'll look to do in this fight.

Essentially, this one should come down to whether Mariscal can bully Jackson and put him on his back foot, preventing him from getting comfortable.

'Machine Gun' might not have the power to turn out the lights on 'The Leech', but if he can hurt him before Jackson can look to land a takedown and get to an advantageous position, this fight should be his. With any hope, it could also deliver the Fight of the Night.

The Pick: Mariscal via decision

---

#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card

Firstly, it's worth noting that another fight may yet be added to this weekend's main card. A fight between Chris Gutierrez and Javid Basharat was removed for reasons unknown, and may be replaced.

For now, though, the event appears to have just two additional fights on its main card.

In a bantamweight bout, Chelsea Chandler faces Yana Santos. This fight pits a fighter who is just starting her journey in the octagon against one who, truth be told, is probably staring at the end of hers.

Santos has not won a fight since 2021 now, and while 'Foxy' did look good in that win over Ketlen Vieira, it's now three years ago. She's lost three in a row since and while she has only been finished once, she definitely appears to have slowed down.

Chandler, on the other hand, fell to Norma Dumont in 2023, but it remains her only octagon loss, and it was a relatively close fight.

A heavy grappler with a strong top game, Chandler is a good fighter, but she does have a couple of issues. First, she's very hittable on the feet, and second, she's struggled to reach the 135-pound bantamweight mark before.

Overall, then, even if Santos is coming to the end of her time near the top, she does have the right kind of style to get past Chandler. If she can stay off her back for long enough, she should be able to put together enough combinations to win. The pick is Santos via decision.

At flyweight, Jafel Filho faces Allan Nascimento. This one should be a close fight to call, and with the grappling skills on offer, it should make a mockery of the theory that the flyweight division is dull.

Of the two, Nascimento is perhaps the more proven. 'Puro Osso' has been fighting professionally since 2011 and has put together a record of 20-6. He's won his last two fights and has only lost to the highly-rated Tagir Ulanbekov in the UFC.

However, it's arguable that Filho is maybe the more intriguing prospect here. 'The Pastor' came into the octagon for the first time in 2023 and gave Muhammad Mokaev an almighty scare, almost breaking his leg before finally faltering late in the bout.

Since then, the Brazilian has dispatched both Daniel Barez and Ode Osbourne, submitting both with ease.

This fight might be harder for him because Nascimento is a better grappler than both, but while he's never been tapped out, he has lost six times, including to grapplers.

With that in mind, Filho could be the man to break that mould. The pick is Filho via submission.

---

#4. UFC Fight Night: The Prelims

Picks in bold

UFC bantamweight bout: Toshiomi Kazama vs. Charalampos Grigoriou

UFC bantamweight bout: Karol Rosa vs. Pannie Kianzad

UFC heavyweight bout: Jhonata Diniz vs. Karl Williams

UFC featherweight bout: Youssef Zalal vs. Jarno Errens

UFC strawweight bout: Stephanie Luciano vs. Talita Alencar

UFC welterweight bout: Danny Barlow vs. Nikolay Veretennikov