UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Paulo Costa vs. Marvin Vettori

After two weak Fight Night cards, the UFC’s offering looks much better this weekend, as the promotion presents UFC Fight Night: Paulo Costa vs. Marvin Vettori from Las Vegas.

With a huge middleweight main event and several other intriguing fights on the card, this UFC Fight Night looks like a must-see show.

With that in mind, here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Paulo Costa vs. Marvin Vettori.

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#1. UFC middleweight division: Paulo Costa vs. Marvin Vettori

Paulo Costa remains one of the UFC's most dangerous middleweights

Neither Paulo Costa nor Marvin Vettori is likely to receive a UFC middleweight title shot off the back of a win here – both men lost to current champ Israel Adesanya in their last fight. However, the victor will still get quickly back into the mix.

For Costa, this fight marks his first trip to the octagon in over a year. The last time we saw him, he was still unbeaten in the UFC and in MMA overall, and many fans were picking him to defeat Adesanya at UFC 253.

Unfortunately, ‘The Eraser’ looked completely out of his depth in his fight with the champion. Whether nerves were to blame is debatable, but Costa’s vaunted striking game was made to look plodding by Adesanya. He eventually fell to a second-round TKO.

That shouldn’t be a real issue for him against Vettori, though. Unlike Adesanya, ‘The Italian Dream’ doesn’t possess pinpoint accurate striking and preternatural movement and speed.

Instead, Vettori is very much a meat-and-potatoes fighter, albeit a really good one. Debuting back in 2016, the Italian has a surprisingly solid UFC record, with just three losses – two of them to Adesanya. More to the point, he was able to go the distance with ‘The Last Stylebender’ on both occasions.

Vettori’s main strength is the fact that he’s so adaptable wherever the fight goes. We’ve seen him use his wrestling and takedowns to defeat the likes of Jack Hermansson and Kevin Holland. His striking and clinch work are both solid too, and he’s never been stopped in 23 fights.

Unfortunately, he’s not a great finisher – he’s only got two to his name in the UFC, both via choke. This means that against a dangerous opponent, he’ll have to be perfect throughout the whole fight to win.

Costa, on the other hand, is a far more dangerous fighter overall. Essentially, ‘The Eraser’ fights a lot like a middleweight version of prime Alistair Overeem. He’ll march forward, look to bully his opponent into retreating, and then smash them with a mix of heavy strikes.

It’s an approach that worked tremendously for him in his first four UFC fights. It even got him close to a rare TKO win over Yoel Romero. The Cuban managed to survive Costa’s barrage in the end, but the fact that ‘The Eraser’ had him badly hurt was incredible in its own right.

However, it’d be silly to pass Costa off as a bullying striker with a questionable chin, which is how he came off against Adesanya. ‘The Eraser’ is also a genuine Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt. Prior to joining the UFC, his reputation was largely that of a dangerous top-game grappler.

Overall then, there’s the chance that the loss to Adesanya has damaged Costa irreparably. If that’s the case, then Vettori could certainly gas him out and grind out a decision.

However, ‘The Eraser’ may have benefitted from his year off to recover from the Adesanya loss. There’s definitely nothing to suggest that he’s a shot fighter.

With that in mind, it’s hard not to pick him here. He’s a better striker than Vettori and may well be a better grappler too, should it come to that. Whether he can finish the Italian is another thing entirely, but it’d be hugely impressive if he could.

The Pick: Costa via fourth round TKO

Here are the Latest UFC Predictions by Sportskeeda

#2. UFC lightweight division: Grant Dawson vs. Rick Glenn

Grant Dawson is one of the UFC's more underrated fighters

This lightweight bout may not be heavy on name value, but it’s actually one of the stronger fights that the UFC has put together this month.

That’s largely because of the presence of Grant Dawson. Sure, he’s not as big a name as some of the UFC’s higher-end lightweights just yet. He doesn’t even have the momentum of someone like Islam Makhachev or Brad Riddell.

However, with a UFC record of 5-0, ‘KGD’ is on one of the more underrated runs in the promotion right now. If he can pick up a sixth win here – in his first co-main event to boot – it’d be impossible to ignore him any longer.

It is worth noting that Dawson’s first four UFC wins came in the featherweight division. He defeated Julian Erosa, Michael Trizano, Darrick Minner and Nad Narimani there. After missing weight for the latter two bouts, he was forced up to 155lbs.

It didn’t have much of a negative effect, though. He made his lightweight debut in March and became the first man in the UFC to defeat veteran Leonardo Santos, knocking him out with one second remaining in their clash.

Essentially, ‘KGD’ has dangerous skills in all areas. With three finishes in his five UFC wins, he knows how to get an opponent out of the octagon. So, can he do the same to Rick Glenn?

Glenn might not be the biggest name in the lightweight division, but he’s definitely somewhat underrated. ‘The Gladiator’ has been in the promotion since 2016 and has put together a record of 3-3. While he’s been inconsistent, he’s also remarkably tough.

More to the point, he hadn’t fought in the best part of three years before returning to shock UFC fans with a knockout of Joaquim Silva in June.

This, then, is a pretty intriguing clash between two similar fighters. Both Dawson and Grant are tough, have dangerous skills in all areas, and coincidentally, both men are also among the smaller lightweights on the roster.

However, based on sheer momentum and finishing skills, Dawson seems like the smarter pick here. His win over Santos proved he can’t be counted out at any stage of a fight. He has also been far more active than Glenn and should come in with less rust.

Therefore, the pick is ‘KGD’, probably by finish.

The Pick: Dawson via first round submission

#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card

43-year old veteran Francisco Trinaldo features on this weekend's main card

Jessica-Rose Clark faces off with Joselyne Edwards in a UFC bantamweight fight. Neither woman has been all that active recently. Edwards hasn’t fought since her February loss to Karol Rosa, while Clark has been out for well over a year following her win over Sarah Alpar.

This one is a tricky fight to pick, as Edwards looks to have some skill, but is largely unproven at the highest level. Meanwhile, Clark hasn’t had that much UFC success but has faced far better opponents. Based on the evidence we have seen, expect Clark to come out on top in a tight decision.

At featherweight, Alex Caceres faces Seung Woo Choi. Caceres has now been in the UFC for over a decade, and surprisingly enough, he’s on arguably his best run right now; he has won his last four bouts.

‘Bruce Leeroy’ is a dangerous fighter in all areas, but he’s also one who is somewhat fragile, having been finished on nine occasions during his career. Choi on the other hand is a very dangerous striker with plenty of credentials, but based on his loss to Gavin Tucker in 2019, his ground game is a work in progress.

The pick here is Caceres, but there’s also every chance he finds himself knocked out in quick fashion.

In a welterweight bout, Dwight Grant faces Francisco Trinaldo. Grant returned to action in April with a tight win over Stefan Sekulic, while Trinaldo lost his welterweight debut to Muslim Salikhov in June.

Despite those results, Trinaldo is probably the favorite here. He’s got very dangerous skills in all areas, he’s remarkably powerful and surprisingly fast.

Grant is a good fighter, but unless Father Time has finally caught up with ‘Massaranduba’, he feels like the type of opponent the Brazilian will run over. Trinaldo via submission is the pick.

Finally, Nicolae Negumereanu takes on Ike Villanueva in a light heavyweight battle. This one promises to be a slugfest but could also turn sloppy if it goes too long. It should probably come down to who the faster man is, and in that sense, Negumereanu might have a slight advantage. Therefore, ‘Nick’ via TKO is the pick.

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#4. UFC Fight Night: The Prelims

Picks in bold

UFC middleweight division: Jun Yong Park vs. Gregory Rodrigues

UFC lightweight division: Alan Patrick vs. Mason Jones

UFC strawweight division: Tabatha Ricci vs. Maria de Oliveira

UFC middleweight division: Jamie Pickett vs. Laureano Staropoli

UFC lightweight division: Khama Worthy vs. Jai Herbert

UFC flyweight division: Jeff Molina vs. Daniel Lacerda

UFC strawweight division: Livinha Souza vs. Randa Markos