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The UFC heads to London, England, this weekend for a Fight Night event, and while the card isn’t that stacked, a hot crowd is guaranteed.
UFC Fight Night: Tom Aspinall vs. Marcin Tybura features some of the best prospects and contenders out of the UK, and will hopefully deliver plenty of fun action.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Tom Aspinall vs. Marcin Tybura.
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#1. UFC heavyweight bout: Tom Aspinall vs. Marcin Tybura
The last time the UFC visited London for a Fight Night card was almost exactly a year ago. In the headline bout, heavyweight prospect Tom Aspinall was hoping for a breakthrough showing against top contender Curtis Blaydes.
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Had Aspinall defeated ‘Razor’, he could well have been in line for a possible title shot. Instead, the native of Manchester blew out his knee before the fight really got going, resulting in him spending a year on the shelf instead.
This weekend marks his return bout, and while he isn’t fighting a foe as highly ranked as Blaydes, Marcin Tybura is definitely no pushover.
Ranked at No.10 in the division, the Polish fighter has won his last two bouts in the octagon, and has lost just once in his past eight fights, dropping a decision to Alexander Volkov in 2021.
Given that Aspinall absolutely blasted through Volkov when they met last year, MMA math would suggest an easy victory for the British fighter here. However, that may not be the case at all.
On paper, Aspinall has most of the advantages. He’s the quicker striker with more power in his hands, and while Tybura is a dangerous grappler from the top, it’s unlikely that he’ll be able to put Aspinall on his back.
However, Aspinall is coming off serious surgery to his knee, and over the years, we’ve seen multiple fighters come back from a similar injury and never be the same again.
Recent photos, however, suggest that the Manchester native might well be in the best shape of his life following his rehabilitation, and if that’s the case, then Tybura should be in trouble here.
The Polish fighter has tended to follow the same pattern throughout his octagon career, beating most of his slower, plodding foes, but falling to the more athletic ones that he can’t overpower physically or technically.
It’s fair to say that Aspinall is closer to Volkov or to Fabricio Werdum than to Greg Hardy or Maxim Grishin. Therefore, assuming his knee is fixed, the pick is Aspinall via second round KO.
The Pick: Aspinall via second-round KO
#2. UFC flyweight bout: Molly McCann vs. Julija Stoliarenko
It’s probably fair to say that this bout features a piece of seriously odd matchmaking. It isn’t that Julija Stoliarenko isn’t the kind of opponent that Molly McCann should be facing right now, more that the idea of the Lithuanian making 125 pounds feels dangerous.
For the most part, Stoliarenko has been fighting in the UFC at 135 pounds, but her last bout took place at 140 pounds. More to the point, 2021 saw her collapse on the scale in an attempt to make 135 pounds, forcing her fight with Julia Avila to be scrapped.
Quite how she’ll make 125 pounds, then, is anyone’s guess. Even if she can make the weight safely, which is a big question mark, she hasn’t done a lot to suggest she’s an elite-level fighter yet.
Overall, Stoliarenko is 1-4 in the octagon, and she’s been finished twice, including in her last bout against Chelsea Chandler.
McCann, meanwhile, saw her dreams of rising into title contention go up in smoke when she was whitewashed by Erin Blanchfield last November. Prior to that, though, she’d beaten three foes in a row, and had picked up two brutal knockout wins over Luana Carolina and Hannah Goldy.
McCann is clearly not the best grappler, as her one-sided defeat to Blanchfield showed. However, she’s very tough, hits hard, has durability, and can finish a hurt opponent in violent fashion.
Stoliarenko might stand a chance here if she can get the fight to the mat, but the likelihood of her managing that seems low. Therefore, expect the London crowd to be treated to a big highlight reel win for ‘Meatball’.
The Pick: McCann via first-round TKO
#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card
In a featherweight bout, Nathaniel Wood takes on Andre Fili. This one should be exciting, purely because ‘Touchy’ Fili is a fighter who is aggressive to a fault and rarely puts on a dull affair in the octagon.
The Californian may well be out of his depth here, though. Fili has been around for a lengthy period now, debuting almost a decade ago, and that means that realistically, he’s past his best at this point.
Wood, on the other hand, seems to be peaking since his move to 145 pounds, and he’s won his last two bouts. What’s more, he’s a highly technical fighter with no real weaknesses in any single area. Add in his home advantage, and the pick is Wood via decision.
In a middleweight clash, Paul Craig faces Andre Muniz. This one should be a test of whether Craig can make 185 pounds safely, because if he can, he could be a problem there. He’s a slick grappler with a huge frame, and at the lower weight, he should be more durable.
However, he hasn’t been thrown a softball here. Before losing by submission to Brendan Allen, Muniz looked like the most dangerous grappler at 185 pounds, and he’s the only fighter to submit the legendary Jacare Souza.
This one should be tricky to pick, especially on the ground, but given Craig’s age (35) and the fact that he hasn’t made 185 pounds before, it’s hard to go with him. The pick, therefore, is Muniz via decision.
At lightweight, Jai Herbert squares off with Fares Ziam. The UK’s Herbert is a solid fighter, but he’s had some rotten luck thus far into his octagon career, suffering a couple of nasty losses, including ones to Ilia Topuria and Francisco Trinaldo that saw him lose after starting well.
This fight looks more suitable for him, as Ziam hasn’t really fought anyone on the same level as ‘The Black Country Banger’, and isn’t that explosive. The pick, therefore, is Herbert via KO.
Finally, Lerone Murphy faces Joshua Culibao at featherweight. This one should be a fun fight, as both men are on excellent runs at the minute. Murphy is unbeaten in the octagon thus far, winning four bouts and drawing a fifth. He’s an excellent striker with quick hands and knockout power.
Culibao, on the other hand, hasn’t lost since moving to 145 pounds in October 2020. He’s won his last three fights, and most recently submitted the explosive Melsik Baghdasaryan.
This one will be a close, but Murphy has the home advantage, sports the better striking arsenal, and seems tricky to get to the ground. Given Culibao has a TKO loss on his record, the pick is Murphy via knockout.
#4. UFC Fight Night: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC bantamweight bout: Davey Grant vs. Daniel Marcos
UFC welterweight bout: Danny Roberts vs. Jonny Parsons
UFC lightweight bout: Marc Diakiese vs. Joel Alvarez
UFC heavyweight bout: Mick Parkin vs. Jamal Pogues
UFC middleweight bout: Makhmud Muradov vs. Bryan Barberena
UFC bantamweight bout: Ketlen Vieira vs. Pannie Kianzad
UFC lightweight bout: Chris Duncan vs. Yanal Ashmoz
UFC strawweight bout: Shauna Bannon vs. Bruna Brasil
UFC flyweight bout: Jafel Filho vs. Daniel Barez
