UFC Predictions: UFC Mexico City: Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg

After visiting London this weekend, the UFC is once again on the road next weekend for a Fight Night event. This time, Mexico City will be the venue for what will hopefully be a good show.

UFC Mexico City: Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg is not the strongest card on paper, but with some exciting fighters in action, it should hopefully deliver the goods.

With that in mind then, here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Mexico City: Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg.

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#1. UFC flyweight bout: Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg

Next weekend's headline bout is a flyweight clash between two fighters who could be at a crossroads.

The former flyweight champion, Brandon Moreno returned from two straight losses to look fantastic in his win over Amir Albazi last year. A win here could shunt him towards a rematch with the man who took the title from him, current champ Alexandre Pantoja.

Steve Erceg, on the other hand, has slipped down the ladder after he was handed an unlikely shot at Pantoja last year. 'Astro Boy' debuted with three straight wins, but was perhaps pushed a little too hard, too soon.

Not only did the Aussie lose to Pantoja, but he was also stopped in the first round by Kai Kara-France in his last bout.

Essentially, then, either Erceg will prove that he does belong at the elite level by beating the former champion, or 'The Assassin Baby' will push his claim to a title shot further with another win.

The problem for Erceg here is that if Moreno comes in with the same form he showed against Albazi, it's hard to see an area in which he can win.

'The Assassin Baby' destroyed Albazi, piecing him up on his feet and never slowing down for a second. Where he looked jaded in his loss to Brandon Royval, this was Moreno at his best, throwing with insane volume and aggression and never slowing down.

Erceg has proven to be a pretty strong striker in his own right, but while he racked up a total of 111 significant strikes against Pantoja and survived the distance, he just doesn't have the experience of Moreno.

More to the point, the Australian is also somewhat plodding at times, which is basically how he was beaten by the snappier Kara-France.

MMA math doesn't always work, and the fact that Moreno outclassed Kara-France doesn't necessarily mean he'll beat Erceg. However, it's hard to imagine 'Astro Boy' not being slightly out of his depth here against a fighter who's had more title fights than Erceg has had octagon bouts in total.

Given that the crowd will be firmly on Moreno's side, too, the pick is 'The Assassin Baby' to find an impressive way to win.

The Pick: Moreno via third-round TKO

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#2. UFC lightweight bout: Manuel Torres vs. Drew Dober

Next weekend's co-headliner might not make much of a dent in the lightweight rankings, but it should be a fun, thrilling fight for as long as it lasts.

Put simply, ever since his octagon debut way back in 2013, Drew Dober has produced banger after banger after banger. Win or lose, he's always tended to produce wild action, largely happy to throw down with anyone.

However, at the age of 36, it does appear that he's slowing down somewhat. Dober is still in phenomenal shape, but he's not as durable as he once was, meaning his style has become ever more risky.

Indeed, he's now lost three of his last four fights and hasn't won since October 2023. So can he turn things around here?

It's a bit difficult to know what to expect from Torres. 'El Loco' looked like an excellent prospect in his early days, winning on 'Dana White's Contender Series' and then dispatching three straight opponents.

However, the Mexican devastatingly lost his last bout, suffering a TKO at the hands of Ignacio Bahamondes. It wasn't a bad showing per se, as 'El Loco' was doing well early on before getting too overzealous.

Essentially, then, this fight could go either way. It's likely to be a brawl as neither man knows anything else, and so it should come down to whether Dober can still cut it in a firefight.

Given he lasted for three rounds with the brutal Jean Silva before he was stopped, though, the chances are that he could absorb whatever Torres has to offer.

Given that, on the other hand, 'El Loco' wilted under pressure against Bahamondes, then, it feels like this one could be one last hurrah for Dober. Expect a frontrunner for 'Fight of the Night', though.

The Pick: Dober via second-round KO

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#3. UFC Mexico City: The Main Card

In a middleweight bout, Kelvin Gastelum takes on Joe Pyfer. Gastelum is a very interesting case in that he's probably the best example of a fighter who'd have been better off at 175 pounds.

The TUF 17 winner has always tended to do better as a middleweight but has also tended to hit a wall against larger foes there. At 170 pounds, meanwhile, he's tended to look drawn out.

This event will see him face a very raw prospect in Pyfer. 'Bodybagz' garnered hype a couple of years back with some fun knockouts, but was outfought by Jack Hermansson in their fight. Essentially, he's got potential, but as of yet, we haven't seen any evidence that he's more than a power puncher.

Given Gastelum has always shown a pretty ridiculous chin, then - he's never been KO'd - the smart money is on Gastelum to win via decision in this one. Hopefully, too, a loss here will slow Pyfer down somewhat, allowing him to further develop his skills.

In a bantamweight bout, young prospect Raul Rosas Jr. faces Vince Morales.

Still the youngest fighter on the roster, Rosas Jr. has thus far been treated perfectly. He's shown rapidly improving skills but hasn't been thrown to the wolves, allowing him to develop and gain valuable experience.

Morales is the next step for him. 'Vandetta' is a tough veteran who's had two stints with the UFC, and he's picked up some good wins too, notably over Aiemann Zahabi. However, he's not brilliant in any single area, with his toughness probably being his best attribute.

Overall, this one won't be easy for Rosas Jr, but it's hard to imagine the matchmakers setting him up to fail at this stage. In the end, then, this should be a more good experience for 'El Nino Problema'. The pick is Rosas Jr via decision.

In another bantamweight clash, Saimon Oliveira faces David Martinez. Quite how this has made the main card when Oliveira is 0-2 in the octagon, is anyone's guess.

The likely answer is that the promotion sees something special in Martinez, who will probably be popular in his native Mexico. 'Black Spartan' is an impressive 11-1, hasn't lost since 2021, and appears to have violent knockout power.

Given Oliveira hasn't fought since January 2023 and has never shown anything to suggest he can compete at this level, then, the pick is Martinez via KO.

Finally, in a flyweight clash, Ronaldo Rodriguez takes on Kevin Borjas. Like the previous bout, this feels like nothing but a showcase for a Mexican favorite, in this case, Rodriguez.

'Lazy Boy' has shown himself to be a high-end prospect thus far. He's won his first two octagon bouts and has looked highly impressive, and is also riding a 7-fight win streak.

Borjas, meanwhile, has lost both of his fights in the promotion and has not really shown all that much, either. The big question here is whether ':Lazy Boy' can finish him, but the smart money is on Rodriguez via decision.

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#4. UFC Mexico City: The Prelims

Picks in bold

UFC lightweight bout: Austin Hubbard vs. Marquel Mederos

UFC flyweight bout: Edgar Chairez vs. CJ Vergara

UFC middleweight bout: Jose Medina vs. Ateba Abega Gautier

UFC featherweight bout: Christian Rodriguez vs. Melquizael Costa

UFC strawweight bout: Loopy Godinez vs. Julia Polastri

UFC lightweight bout: Vinc Pichel vs. Rafa Garcia

UFC featherweight bout: Jamall Emmers vs. Gabriel Miranda