UFC Predictions: UFC Vegas 14: Felder vs. dos Anjos Predictions and Picks

This weekend sees the UFC present UFC Vegas 14 from its APEX facility, and finally, we have a main event. The show was initially pegged to be headlined by UFC Lightweight contenders Rafael dos Anjos and Islam Makhachev, but when a staph infection sidelined the latter, things were in jeopardy.

Thankfully, highly ranked contender – and current UFC commentator – Paul Felder has agreed to take the fight on just five days notice, giving us a pretty cool sounding main event clash.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Vegas 14: Felder vs. Dos Anjos.

Also, tune in to this week's editioin of Cage Theory where the boys discuss Glover Teixeira's age-defying win over Thiago Santos and look to other upcoming events!

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#1 UFC Lightweight Division: Paul Felder vs. Rafael dos Anjos

Paul Felder is taking this weekend's fight on five days notice.

So essentially, this fight is boom or bust for Felder. The Irish Dragon, who is now as well known for his work as a commentator than his exploits in the Octagon, stated that he planned to retire from MMA following a loss to Dan Hooker in February.

However, Felder always suggested that the right fight could entice him back to the UFC, and so evidently, this is it. Dos Anjos isn’t ranked any higher than Felder, strangely enough. The Irish Dragon is currently #7 in the UFC’s Lightweight rankings, while RDA hasn’t actually fought in the division since 2016.

However, it’s easy to see the appeal for Felder. Dos Anjos is a former UFC champion in this weight class, and had he beaten Makhachev. He’d have found himself right back in title contention.

And that means that if Felder can overcome the Brazilian, it’d be hard not to consider him back in with the likes of Conor McGregor, Dustin Poirier, Tony Ferguson, and Justin Gaethje when it comes to the race for the likely-vacated UFC Lightweight crown.

So how do these two match up? It’s safe to say that both men are highly comfortable on the feet. A former practitioner of traditional martial arts like taekwondo and karate, Felder came into the UFC in 2014 with the reputation of being a flashy striker. And he lived up to that reputation by KOing Danny Castillo with an incredible spinning backfist in his second UFC fight.

From there, Felder was elevated into the upper echelon of the division. And while he’s suffered setbacks along the way, his wins over Edson Barboza, Charles Oliveira, and James Vick are some of the more impressive in the division.

Felder’s retained that flashy style, but he’s now far sharper with a meat-and-potatoes kickboxing game, essentially fighting somewhat like former training partner Donald Cerrone. He looks to fire sharp elbows and knees from the clinch, uses heavy leg kicks and long punches from distance, and has a tremendous killer instinct.

He’s also insanely tough. The only man to stop him in his MMA career thus far has been Francisco Trinaldo, and that was due to a cut (although Felder was losing the fight at the time). His most recent UFC fight with Hooker, for instance, was one of the all-time great wars of attrition, with both men taking what seemed to be a lifetime’s damage across the five rounds.

Dos Anjos is a more well-rounded fighter than Felder, it must be said. Once considered almost a one-dimensional grappler, the Brazilian has an array of venomous submissions on the mat.

Of his 29 wins, 10 have come by tap-out – including UFC wins over Kevin Lee and Neil Magny. However, something changed for RDA at some point around 2012.

It was then that he switched camps to work with famed trainer Rafael Cordeiro, who transformed RDA from that grappler into a genuine monster. Suddenly, dos Anjos could out-wrestle opponents who he would never have been able to take down during his earlier UFC career.

And more importantly, his striking game was transformed. RDA always had KO power – as his win over George Sotiropoulos at UFC 132 proved. But under Cordeiro, he was able to develop a pressure-based striking game that would see him walk his foes down and hammer them with hard leg kicks and brutal punching combinations.

The style took RDA to the UFC Lightweight title in 2015, and while he was dethroned a year later and no longer works with Cordeiro, he’s still largely the same fighter.

Right now, dos Anjos is on a poor run of one win his last five fights. However, that run should come with a caveat. 2017 saw RDA move up to 170lbs, and while he had initial success, it’s easy to see why he’s now on a slide. Basically, his four losses came against four fighters who are not only amongst the UFC’s biggest Welterweights but also the best stifling wrestlers in the division.

When it comes to this fight then, there’s simply no way Felder can replicate the stifling gameplan of Kamaru Usman or Colby Covington. So how can he win? For me, he’s going to have to rely on a couple of things. Firstly, he’s probably hoping that RDA – at the age of 36 – is going to come into the fight depleted after making his first cut to 155lbs in four years.

If that’s the case, then not only would dos Anjos’ grappling power be somewhat neutered, but he might not have such an advantage over an opponent taking the fight on such late notice.

And in terms of gameplan, he’s probably hoping that RDA’s overly aggressive striking style will cause him to walk into a sharp counter, as was the case when the Brazilian lost his UFC Lightweight title to Eddie Alvarez.

However, given he was technically retired and is taking the fight on such short notice, you’ve got to question exactly how sharp Felder’s counter game is going to be. And of course, despite having a string of recent losses, it’s not like RDA is no longer durable. That loss to Alvarez stands as his only UFC loss by stoppage since 2010.

Overall then, this a herculean task for Felder, and if he pulls it off, it should be considered the best win of his entire career. However, as much as it’d be cool to see, I can’t envision it happening. Given the circumstances surrounding the fight, I expect to see RDA with his hand raised this weekend.

The Pick: Dos Anjos via fourth-round submission

#2 UFC Welterweight Division: Abdul Razak Alhassan vs. Khaos Williams

Khaos Williams impressed in his UFC debut.

It’s very easy to see why this fight has been placed in the co-main event slot for this UFC show. Both of these men, based on the evidence we’ve seen so far, love nothing more than to stand and trade heavy blows with their opponent. While the UFC is about far more than that, fights of that nature still appeal massively to the fans.

Of the two fighters, Alhassan has far more UFC experience. The native of Ghana debuted in the UFC way back in 2016, and by the end of 2018, he appeared to be one of the Welterweight division’s fastest rising stars. He put together a record of 4-1, with all of his wins coming by violent knockout.

However, after his win at UFC 228 over Niko Price, legal troubles reared their head. Alhassan was indicted on a double rape charge, and the case took the best part of two years to clear up. Eventually, Judo Thunder was cleared of all charges and returned to the UFC this past July.

However, things didn’t go too well for him. Not only did he miss the 170lbs Welterweight cut-off, but he also found himself outgunned by a slightly better striker in the form of Mounir Lazzez.

As his nickname suggests, Alhassan does have a solid grappling background. A judoka of some regard, he competed in the sport for reportedly 22 years and does hold a black belt. However, like judokas that preceded him, such as Rameau Sokoudjou and Hector Lombard, we’ve seen nothing of his grappling in the UFC – just his brutally heavy hands.

So can he bounce back against Williams? It’s definitely an intriguing fight. Williams – real first name Kalinn – debuted in the UFC back in February, and he did it in style. It took The Ox Fighter just 27 seconds to take out Alex Morono, destroying him with a heavy combination after eating a number of shots the other way.

However, despite that blowaway UFC debut, it’s worth noting that Williams simply hasn’t fought anyone of note outside of that lone fight. The rest of his victims – his record is 10-1 – are largely unknowns.

Basically then, this fight could easily go either way. It’s likely that both men will come out to trade shots, meaning whoever lands the earliest – and the hardest – will win.

It’s a tough one to call, but I’m leaning towards Alhassan. He didn’t look bad against Lazzez, more rusty than anything, and he’s faced and beaten far better opponents than Williams inside the UFC before. Williams could well prove to be a special talent, but right now, there’s just not enough evidence of that for me to pick him.

The Pick: Alhassan via second-round TKO

#3 UFC Middleweight Division: Julian Marquez vs. Saparbek Safarov

Julian Marquez has not fought in the UFC since 2018.

One of the earliest products of Dana White’s Contender Series, it’s been a long time since we’ve seen Marquez inside the UFC. In fact, you have to go back to July 2018 to find his most recent outing – a tight loss to Alessio di Chirico at the TUF 27 finale.

Injuries have kept him out of action since then, but prior to that, he’d looked like a pretty interesting prospect. Marquez picked up his first solid win back in 2016 by defeating former UFC contender Matt Hamill. And his DWCS appearance saw him upset current UFC star Phil Hawes with a head kick KO.

At his best, Marquez has a decent amount to offer in the UFC. A sneakily good athlete for a guy who’s not ripped to shreds, The Cuban Missile Crisis is deceptively fast, hits hard, and has a decent ground game too.

The one issue he seemed to show against di Chirico was that he can almost get a little too flashy for his own good. Rather than sticking to the basics, his constant attempts at spinning attacks tired him out and then allowed the Italian to take over for a decision.

However, assuming the long layoff hasn’t completely ruined him, he should fare better here. A UFC fighter since December 2016, Safarov hasn’t really shown all that much inside the Octagon to date. He came into the UFC with a strong 8-0 record, but his losses to Gian Villante and Tyson Pedro both exposed the same issue.

Simply put, the Russian just isn’t a great athlete by anyone’s standards. In those first two fights, he appeared to be far slower and far less explosive than today’s UFC fighters need to be. He did win his third outing – a fight against the unknown Nicolae Negumereanu – but then the same old issues raised their head in his loss to Rodolfo Vieira earlier this year.

I suspect, then, that this should be a relatively comfortable win for Marquez. In all honesty, he probably has the advantage in all areas. And assuming he doesn’t get silly and look for the perfect highlight reel KO, he should be able to find a way to finish Safarov before the third round is up.

Given the Russian’s grappling background, a TKO appears to be the most likely outcome – but even a submission wouldn’t be an outright surprise. Either way, expect The Cuban Missile Crisis to return to the UFC with a victory.

The Pick: Marquez via second-round TKO

#4 UFC Middleweight Division: Eryk Anders vs. Antonio Arroyo

The power of Eryk Anders makes him a dangerous opponent for anyone in the UFC.

Few fighters in recent memory have enjoyed such an up-and-down UFC career as Eryk Anders. Debuting in the UFC in mid-2017, Anders used his crushing power punches to take out veterans Rafael Natal and Markus Perez, despite having just two years’ MMA experience to his name.

That was enough to elevate him into his first UFC main event – a tight decision loss to former UFC Light Heavyweight champ Lyoto Machida. Big things were predicted for Ya Boi, but unfortunately, his path just hasn’t panned out that way.

Since the Machida fight, Anders is 3-4 inside the UFC, with a couple of nice KO wins being offset by disappointing losses. An ill-advised move to 205lbs can be blamed for two of those defeats – to Thiago Santos and Khalil Rountree, who were far bigger. But what can you say about his losses to Krzysztof Jotko and Elias Theodorou?

Essentially, the issue for Anders in the UFC has always been the same. He’s such a great athlete that when he wins, he tends to do it spectacularly. However, he’s never really picked up the basics of the sport from a technical standpoint, meaning his striking can be countered relatively easily, and he can also be out-grappled.

Obviously, his athleticism and raw power have made sure he’s never fully out of a fight. But at the age of 33, he’s less of a prospect and more of a “what if?” question. Thankfully for him, though, Arroyo is less of a technical, meat-and-potatoes type of fighter than someone like Jotko or Gerald Meerschaert, who Anders also struggled with.

Instead, Arroyo is cut from the same cloth as the kind of Brazilian prospects we would’ve seen on TUF Brazil a handful of years ago. Offensively, he’s brilliant, with nine wins on his ledger and only one going the distance. He’s capable of taking an opponent out with a slick submission, but also with a brutal knockout.

However, his UFC debut showed that like say, Rony Jason, Godofredo Pepey, Warlley Alves, and many more who’ve preceded him, he tends to struggle when he’s up against trickier opponents. That UFC debut saw him have Andre Muniz in trouble at points, but when he couldn’t put him away, Arroyo gassed out and fell victim to a technically better fighter.

Essentially then, this fight should come down to whether Anders can actually be the more technical, calmer fighter inside the Octagon. If he can do that, then there’s every chance that he uses his athleticism to avoid Arroyo’s offense, land some of his own, and put the Brazilian away.

If he comes out sloppy, though, then Arroyo’s more than capable of turning the tables to land something nasty. However, I’m backing Anders here. Ya Boi has far more UFC experience than Arroyo, who also hasn’t fought in almost a year.

That experience hasn’t always been good, but it should allow him to avoid the wildness of a flashy opponent like Arroyo. As always, Anders carries absolutely brutal power in his hands. Can he pick up a KO? I’m not so sure, but like he did against Perez, I think he’s got enough about him to hurt Arroyo enough times to earn a decision.

The Pick: Anders via unanimous decision

#5 UFC Catchweight fight (195lbs): Brendan Allen vs. Sean Strickland

Brendan Allen is one of the UFC's top prospects at Middleweight.

Another late addition to this card, this fight will actually take place at a 195lbs catchweight rather than 185lbs, where both Allen and Strickland would usually compete. It’s a massively interesting one as Strickland only fought two weeks ago, while Allen was scheduled to fight on last week’s UFC Vegas 13 card, only for opponent Ian Heinisch to test positive for COVID-19.

The fight is also a pretty intriguing clash of styles. Both men are fantastic athletes but have very different approaches to their work in the UFC. Allen, who is 3-0 in the UFC thus far, looks to live up to his nickname All In.

A massively aggressive fighter in all areas, Allen is an explosive striker who fights out of the famed Roufusport camp – the same coaching team that produced the likes of Anthony Pettis and Pat Barry. We saw that striking on display when he sparked out Tom Breese in February, and also in his most recent fight with Kyle Daukaus.

But Allen’s not just a striker. He’s also a highly dangerous grappler who’s always on the hunt for submissions on the ground. He largely outworked Daukaus on the mat, and in his UFC debut, submitted Kevin Holland – a fighter who some are now talking up as a title contender.

The one weakness that All In appears to have would be his wrestling, as Daukaus was able to take him down on a few occasions. However, it’s worth noting that Allen might’ve been happy to go to the ground due to his grappling skill, meaning that a lack of takedown defense isn’t as worrying as it could be.

Strickland, meanwhile, is a much more passive fighter than his opponent this weekend. Tarzan has been with the UFC since 2014 and actually has a highly underrated UFC record. He’s 8-3 overall and has only ever lost to high-end opponents like Kamaru Usman and Santiago Ponzinibbio. He’s also only been stopped once.

However, he’s never truly risen up the UFC rankings because, for the most part, his fighting style is somewhat dull. He tends to use a point-fighting style on the feet, focusing on clean jabs, crosses, and low kicks. And while he’s a capable grappler, he’s more likely to use his wrestling to either stay vertical or to grind an opponent down inside the clinch.

The question here then is whether Allen’s more aggressive style will be enough to either hurt and finish Strickland, or outwork him, or whether Strickland can use that aggression to his own advantage.

Personally, I’m leaning towards the former. Allen looks like the kind of young fighter who’s going to make leaps and bounds in his development every time we see him in the UFC. And to be honest, after six years and numerous injuries, Strickland has probably hit his ceiling at this stage.

It’d be a huge feather in Allen’s cap if he could finish Strickland, but I don’t think we’ll see that. Instead, I think All In can do enough damage on the feet and on the ground to earn a clear-cut unanimous decision.

The Pick: Allen via unanimous decision

#6 The Prelims: UFC on ESPN+ card

Cory McKenna (right) headlines this weekend's UFC prelims.

The UFC will show seven prelim fights on ESPN+ this weekend, and at the top of the card sits a Strawweight clash between Kay Hansen and Cory McKenna. This should be a tight one to call. Hansen showed a lot of promise in her UFC debut back in June, although opponent Jinh Yu Frey was far smaller than her.

Wales’ McKenna, meanwhile, appears to have a lot of skills, particularly on the ground, but doesn’t seem too athletically blessed. Hansen has the advantage in experience, but I’m going with McKenna here. She looked excellent in her Contender Series appearance, and likely won’t hit her ceiling until she moves up the ladder. McKenna by decision is the pick.

Also at Strawweight, Miranda Granger faces Ashley Yoder. This should be another close fight to call, as both women are pretty evenly matched. However, the difference could be in experience. Yoder has fought in the UFC on seven occasions, and although she’s just 2-5 overall, she’s better than her record makes her out to be.

She’s also fought some of the top fighters in the division – Angela Hill, Randa Markos, Mackenzie Dern – and has never been finished. Given Granger didn’t show a lot in her last UFC appearance, I’m taking Yoder by decision in this one.

At Welterweight, Alex Morono takes on Rhys McKee. McKee is best known as one of Khamzat Chimaev’s early victims, but to be fair, Skeletor was actually a renowned prospect from the UK prior to that fight.

Similar to fellow Brit and former UFC star Colin Fletcher, McKee’s success comes from his range and length, which allows him to land strikes from distance and latch onto dangerous submissions.

I like him to win this fight with Morono, who is more of a jack-of-all-trades type with solid skills, but nothing that really stands out. He’s got more experience than McKee, but I question how he’ll deal with the range of Skeletor, and so I’m taking the Brit to win by submission.

At Bantamweight, Jose Quinonez faces Louis Smolka. A smaller 135lber who’s fought at Flyweight, Smolka has always been a talented fighter, but he does tend to struggle at times due to his porous defense. Quinonez is similar – he’s good offensively but definitely struggles against a fighter who really pushes him.

This should basically come down to who can start fastest. And with that in mind, I’m leaning slightly towards Smolka to win, probably by submission.

At Strawweight, Kanako Murata debuts against perennial contender Randa Markos. A grappling expert, Murata is coming into the UFC as the reigning Invicta Strawweight champion, which bodes well for her hopes. However, this is a very tricky UFC debut for her. Markos has never quite reached her potential due to inconsistency, but she’s genuinely excellent on her day, particularly on the ground.

This one could probably go either way, but I’m going with the UFC experience of Quiet Storm and taking Markos to outwork the newcomer for a decision.

At Bantamweight, Geraldo de Freitas faces Tony Gravely. A slick grappler, de Freitas bought a strong reputation into the UFC with him and picked up a good win to begin his career, but lost his second UFC outing and hasn’t fought in over a year. Gravely, meanwhile, came into the UFC off a Contender Series win but was largely outworked and submitted by Brett Johns in his UFC debut.

Given Gravely’s struggles with the grappling of Johns, I’m going with de Freitas here. I could be off – Gravely could stop his takedowns and KO him – but I just feel like the Brazilian has more experience and skills overall.

Finally, Don’Tale Mayes takes on Roque Martinez in a Heavyweight clash. Neither man has shown all that much in their UFC careers to date. Martinez was easily submitted by Alexander Romanov in his UFC debut and didn’t look in good shape at all.

On the other hand, Mayes was bulldozed by Ciryl Gane and then lost to Rodrigo Nascimento back in May. Overall though, Mayes is far more athletic, seems to hit harder, and is in better shape. I like him to win this one by KO.