UFC Predictions: UFC Vegas 14: Felder vs. dos Anjos Predictions and Picks

#3 UFC Middleweight Division: Julian Marquez vs. Saparbek Safarov

Julian Marquez has not fought in the UFC since 2018.

One of the earliest products of Dana White’s Contender Series, it’s been a long time since we’ve seen Marquez inside the UFC. In fact, you have to go back to July 2018 to find his most recent outing – a tight loss to Alessio di Chirico at the TUF 27 finale.

Injuries have kept him out of action since then, but prior to that, he’d looked like a pretty interesting prospect. Marquez picked up his first solid win back in 2016 by defeating former UFC contender Matt Hamill. And his DWCS appearance saw him upset current UFC star Phil Hawes with a head kick KO.

At his best, Marquez has a decent amount to offer in the UFC. A sneakily good athlete for a guy who’s not ripped to shreds, The Cuban Missile Crisis is deceptively fast, hits hard, and has a decent ground game too.

The one issue he seemed to show against di Chirico was that he can almost get a little too flashy for his own good. Rather than sticking to the basics, his constant attempts at spinning attacks tired him out and then allowed the Italian to take over for a decision.

However, assuming the long layoff hasn’t completely ruined him, he should fare better here. A UFC fighter since December 2016, Safarov hasn’t really shown all that much inside the Octagon to date. He came into the UFC with a strong 8-0 record, but his losses to Gian Villante and Tyson Pedro both exposed the same issue.

Simply put, the Russian just isn’t a great athlete by anyone’s standards. In those first two fights, he appeared to be far slower and far less explosive than today’s UFC fighters need to be. He did win his third outing – a fight against the unknown Nicolae Negumereanu – but then the same old issues raised their head in his loss to Rodolfo Vieira earlier this year.

I suspect, then, that this should be a relatively comfortable win for Marquez. In all honesty, he probably has the advantage in all areas. And assuming he doesn’t get silly and look for the perfect highlight reel KO, he should be able to find a way to finish Safarov before the third round is up.

Given the Russian’s grappling background, a TKO appears to be the most likely outcome – but even a submission wouldn’t be an outright surprise. Either way, expect The Cuban Missile Crisis to return to the UFC with a victory.

The Pick: Marquez via second-round TKO