UFC Predictions: UFC Vegas 15: Blaydes vs. Lewis - Predictions and Picks

After a decent pay-per-view this past weekend, the UFC is back on Saturday for yet another show from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas.

UFC Vegas 15 features a high-level main event between top-ranked Heavyweights Curtis Blaydes and Derrick Lewis, and well, not much else of note, to be honest.

But in all seriousness, it’s not exactly the UFC’s fault. These cards are essentially still trying to catch up for the seven weeks the UFC had off during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, so what can you do?

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Vegas 15: Blaydes vs. Lewis.

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#1 UFC Heavyweight Division: Curtis Blaydes vs. Derrick Lewis

Curtis Blaydes could be in line for a UFC Heavyweight title shot with a win on Saturday.

A lot is at stake in this major Heavyweight clash, but mostly for Blaydes. With current UFC Heavyweight champ Stipe Miocic set to defend his title against Francis Ngannou at some point in early 2021 (hopefully), with a win here, Blaydes should theoretically be next in line.

After all, Razor has now been in the UFC since 2016. He’s 10-2, and the only man to defeat him has been Ngannou. I guess that could make a third fight a little tricky to sell should Ngannou dethrone Miocic. But even then, how do you deny a guy who has beaten the likes of Junior Dos Santos, Alistair Overeem, and Aleksei Oleinik?

The issue for Blaydes – in terms of his standing with UFC President Dana White at least – has been with his fighting style. Razor is a smothering wrestler who primarily looks to use his powerful takedowns to win him his fights.

And when he essentially used that wrestling and little else to grind out Alexander Volkov in June – a smart gameplan – he came under fire from White for “playing it safe."

To tell the truth, that’s not really fair. Admittedly, the Volkov fight wasn’t exactly entertaining. But in his previous fight, Blaydes knocked out Dos Santos standing – showing his massively improved boxing game based around the threat of his takedowns.

In fact, of his 10 UFC victories, only four have gone to decision. The rest of his opponents – including Overeem, Oleinik, and Shamil Abdurakhimov – have been TKO’d, usually in violent fashion. To describe Blaydes as a dull fighter, then, would be ridiculous.

Lewis is almost the polar opposite of Blaydes in that sense. The Black Beast is usually billed as a serious knockout artist, and if the UFC were to put a highlight reel together for him, it’d be understandable.

Lewis wields brutal power in his hands that’s pretty unique, even for the Heavyweight division. He’s sparked out the likes of Oleinik, Volkov, Marcin Tybura, and Travis Browne. However, he’s also been in arguably more dull fights than Blaydes has.

His fight with Francis Ngannou at UFC 226 was not only one of the worst in the history of the UFC Heavyweight division, but it was one of the worst in UFC history - period. And his clashes with Ilir Latifi and Blagoy Ivanov weren’t much better.

Regardless of whether each man is exciting or dull, though, who’s more likely to win? Personally, I’m favoring Blaydes.

The Black Beast can definitely knock Blaydes out if he lands, that’s for sure. Ngannou turned Blaydes’ lights out in their last fight in 2018, but Razor was also hurt badly by Mark Hunt in their fight. And Lewis has the kind of power to knock anyone in the UFC out cold.

However, Lewis’ biggest weakness has always been his ground game. His takedown defense has gotten slightly better over the years, but nobody in the history of the UFC has a power double leg quite like Blaydes. He’s landed more takedowns in the Heavyweight division than any other fighter in UFC history.

And on his back, Lewis is definitely a fish out of water. The Black Beast does have some semblance of technique, and he defends submissions pretty well from his back. However, his go-to technique is simply to muscle his opponent off him, which likely won’t work against a huge opponent like Blaydes.

Overall, there’s no reason to think Blaydes would waste his time trading with Lewis in this fight. He shrugged off Dana White’s criticism and clearly knows exactly what his strengths and weaknesses are. And at the age of 29, he’s still improving rapidly.

I think he’ll probably come out on Saturday, slam Lewis down, and immediately find himself in a dominant position. From there, he’ll beat on Lewis until he simply can’t take any more. And surprisingly, The Black Beast doesn’t weather punishment all that well, meaning I think Blaydes gets this done before the third round.

The Pick: Blaydes via second-round TKO

#2 UFC Heavyweight Division: Josh Parisian vs. Parker Porter

Josh Parisian makes his UFC debut this weekend against Parker Porter. (Image credits: UFC)

How we’ve ended up with this Heavyweight clash as the co-main event on a UFC card in 2020 is anyone’s guess. No offense to either fighter, but surely Anthony Smith vs. Devin Clark would’ve made more sense in the spot? Perhaps for these ESPN+ Fight Nights, the UFC only cares about the main event.

At any rate, this fight marks Parisian’s official UFC debut. It’s been a long time coming for the Michigan native, too. Parisian first burst onto the scene back in 2018, delivering a knockout via spinning backfist during the second season of Dana White’s Contender Series.

Strangely enough, that wasn’t enough to earn him a UFC deal, and instead, Parisian was handed a slot on the 28th season of The Ultimate Fighter. There, he was defeated by Michel Batista in his lone fight, and a loss via kimura in his next regional fight seemed to end his UFC dreams.

But Parisian picked himself up and won five fights in a row to earn another Contender Series appearance. And when he TKO’d Chad Johnson, he was finally handed that elusive contract.

So what does Parisian bring to the UFC? Well, for starters, he’s not the most chiseled Heavyweight, looking more like Roy Nelson than Francis Ngannou. But he’s deceptively quick for a guy of his size and is a cleaner striker than you might expect.

However, the majority of his wins have come against sub-par opponents, and as we saw against Batista, his wrestling game is lacking somewhat. Batista was able to ground him on multiple occasions and eventually finished him off there.

So how does he match up with Porter? For starters, he’ll have quite a size advantage over him. Porter weighed in at 264lbs – the same as Parisian usually comes in at – for his UFC debut against Chris Daukaus. But he also stands four inches shorter and generally looks like the smaller man.

And worryingly for Porter, he does seem like the kind of opponent who Parisian can look good against. He was bullied around the cage by Daukaus in that UFC debut, roughed up in the clinch, and eventually TKO’d. And it’s not like he’s a developing prospect, either – he’s been fighting since 2007 and even has a loss to a pre-UFC Jon Jones on his record.

Overall, this is Heavyweight MMA, and so it could easily go either way, but I’m favoring Parisian here. Assuming he doesn’t suffer bad Octagon shock then, he should be capable of recreating Daukaus’ bullying game-plan and taking out Porter, probably by TKO.

The Pick: Parisian via first-round TKO

#3 UFC Flyweight Division: Gina Mazany vs. Rachael Ostovich

Rachael Ostovich hasn't fought since her 2019 loss to Paige VanZant.

Like the previous fight, this is another curious choice for a UFC main card clash. The best I can guess is that the UFC sees that Ostovich is an attractive, marketable woman and thus wants to push her as a potential star. But that might be a bit tricky.

Unfortunately for Ostovich, she’s thus far gone 1-2 in the UFC and hasn’t fought since her submission loss to Paige VanZant in January 2019. Granted, she could’ve won that fight had she had more luck on her side. She essentially KO’d herself by slipping off VanZant’s back, setting up the fight-ending armbar, but even so.

Mazany, meanwhile, has an even worse UFC record and a worse MMA record overall. She’s 6-4 in MMA and has gone 1-4 across two UFC stints. The first one saw her lose to Sara McMann, Lina Lansberg, and Macy Chiasson. And most recently, she returned to the promotion only to be TKO’d by Julia Avila in just 22 seconds.

In all honesty, it’s probably fair to question whether either of these women are UFC-level fighters, but who will be able to pick up the win this weekend?

Personally, I’m leaning towards Ostovich. She seems to be the superior athlete in this match-up, and judging from her prior UFC fights – even the ones she’s lost – she looks like a pretty excellent grappler.

Mazany, meanwhile, simply doesn’t look like a very good fighter from a defensive standpoint, meaning that she’s likely to go wherever the fight takes her. And if that means heading to the ground with a more dangerous grappler, then so be it.

I’m taking Ostovich by submission in this one, but it’s a tricky pick purely because neither woman is truly outstanding.

The Pick: Ostovich via second-round submission

#4 UFC Welterweight Division: Miguel Baeza vs. Takashi Sato

Miguel Baeza has impressed since his UFC debut last year.

In terms of fighters with potential, this is probably the best fight on the card outside of the main event. Both men have had excellent results in the UFC thus far, and the winner of this one should progress further in the Welterweight division, perhaps into a fight with an opponent in the top 15.

Baeza is thus far undefeated in UFC action at 2-0. He debuted in 2019 with a violent win over Hector Aldana but really opened eyes this May with a TKO of Matt Brown. Sure, Brown isn’t what he once was, but Caramel Thunder still destroyed him with strikes in the second round.

What was notable about the fight was that the win didn’t come easy. Brown had Baeza badly hurt in the first round, knocking him down and assaulting him with his usual ferocity. However, the prospect survived, came back, and eventually finished Brown in the second.

Interestingly, Baeza isn’t just a wild striker - he’s also a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt. And while he doesn’t have any submission wins on his ledger, he’s clearly dangerous on the mat too.

Sato is more of a veteran, having fought professionally since 2013. He’s got a strong record of 16-3, with most of those wins coming in Japan’s Pancrase promotion. Ten debuted in the UFC in early 2019 with a vicious win over Ben Saunders, and most recently took out late replacement Jason Witt in just 48 seconds.

However, sandwiched in between those two wins was a loss to Belal Muhammad. That fight was a pretty poor showing for Sato, who wasn’t able to have much success with his strikes due to the threat of Muhammad’s takedowns. Eventually, the UFC veteran was able to submit Ten with a rear-naked choke.

Essentially then, this looks like a pretty even fight from a striking standpoint. Both men look technically pretty solid and clearly pack plenty of KO power. However, when you consider that another of Sato’s losses came to UFC veteran Glaico Franca – again by submission – I worry about the grappling side of things for him in this fight.

Baeza hasn’t really shown any grappling in the UFC yet, but we know he’s accomplished enough on the ground. More to the point, judging by that Muhammad fight, even the threat of the takedown might be enough to force Sato onto his back foot.

If Baeza can do that, then there’s every chance he can take out the Japanese fighter in a blitz before he’s got a chance to really return fire. And if he can’t, well, he appeared to be able to take a serious shot judging on that Brown fight anyway.

This should be a fun fight, but I think Baeza simply has more ways to win, and thus I’m taking him via second-round TKO.

The Pick: Baeza via second-round TKO

#5 UFC Light Heavyweight Division: Anthony Smith vs. Devin Clark

Anthony Smith has struggled for traction in the UFC in 2020.

After a tremendous 2019 that saw him push then-UFC Light Heavyweight champ Jon Jones and defeat former UFC title challenger Alexander Gustafsson, things haven’t gone so well for Anthony Smith in 2020.

He looked to be en route to a big TKO win over Glover Teixeira in May, only to run out of steam and succumb to a truly vicious beating from the Brazilian. Most observers – myself included – felt that Smith probably should’ve taken an extended break from the UFC following that loss. But instead, he returned in August and lost again to Aleksandar Rakic.

Sure, Lionheart didn’t take a beating from Rakic, but he definitely didn’t look himself. So given that it’s only been three months since that fight is this too quick of a turnaround for him again? It’s very possible.

Thankfully for him, he’s up against an opponent who is nowhere near as offensively potent as either Teixeira or Rakic. Clark is a strong fighter who’s been in the UFC since 2016. Brown Bear has gone 6-4 in that time, but notably, he’s never finished any of his wins and has been put away in all of his losses.

For the most part, Clark is a brute-force wrestler who looks to rough his opponent up in the clinch and on the ground. Most recently, he was able to bully around prospect Alonzo Menifield, winning the fight by decision.

Clark is a willing striker and a capable grappler, but his defense has definitely been porous throughout his UFC tenure. He’s left himself open for submissions – usually leaving his neck too open – and hasn’t really shown the best striking defense either.

In terms of this fight, Clark is also giving up some height and reach to Smith, who is adept at finding his range to punish his opponent at distance. And more worryingly for Brown Bear, Smith is also highly adept at capitalizing on errors, particularly on the ground, and putting an opponent away.

Overall, Smith should largely be favored here in terms of the styles of the fighters. He’s definitely better offensively, is a far superior grappler, and has more killer instinct standing too. However, given his recent struggles, there is a chance that he ends up fighting flat and finds himself outworked by Clark.

I’m banking on the fact that Clark’s offense isn’t too great to allow Smith enough big moments to win the clash. But in all honesty, it could go either way. Win or lose, Smith probably needs at least a good six months off following the fight.

The Pick: Smith via unanimous decision

#6 The Prelims: UFC on ESPN+ card

Popular UFC veteran Ashlee Evans-Smith headlines this week's prelim card.

The UFC will present seven prelim fights on ESPN+ this weekend. At the top sits a Bantamweight fight between Ashlee Evans-Smith and Norma Dumont Viana. A somewhat underrated fighter, Evans-Smith brings a strong physical presence to the Octagon and looks to beat her opponent up, whether that’s on the ground or on the feet.

Her biggest issue has been injuries. Numerous times we’ve seen either Rebel Girl or her opponent forced out of fights that were eventually scrapped. However, assuming this one goes ahead, I think it’s a winnable one for her.

Dumont might have some size on her, as she’s dropping down from 145lbs, but she’s also lacking in experience and didn’t exactly look great in her UFC debut – a quick KO at the hands of Megan Anderson. I can’t pick a fighter with just four wins in good conscience, so I’m going with Evans-Smith via TKO.

At Bantamweight, Martin Day faces off with Anderson dos Santos. This one is tricky to call. Neither fighter has really proven they belong in the UFC yet, with two losses each to their name. However, dos Santos is far more experienced and appears to be a genuinely gifted grappler, with 11 submissions to his name. With that in mind, I’m taking him to find his 12th this weekend.

In the Flyweight division, Amir Albazi faces Zhalgas Zhumagulov. A London-based Swede, Albazi looks like a genuinely dangerous fighter in all areas. He’s got plenty of experience, and he looked excellent in his UFC debut win over Malcolm Gordon.

Zhumagulov, meanwhile, debuted in the UFC in July with a loss to Raulian Paiva. The native of Kazakhstan showed some strong wrestling and striking at times but didn’t really impress in the same way that Albazi did in his debut. I’m going with Albazi in this one, probably by submission.

In another Flyweight bout, Su Mudaerji faces Malcolm Gordon. Malcolm X lost in his UFC debut, but overall looks like a decent prospect out of Canada. He’ll also be quite tall for a 125lber, standing at 5’7”. Meanwhile, China’s Mudaerji has a ledger full of flashy finishes but isn’t necessarily that proven at the top level.

I could see this one going either way, to be honest. But given Mudaerji’s all-out style, I suspect he’ll fall into the trap of Gordon on the ground and end up losing by submission.

In a Catchweight fight, Luke Sanders faces Nate Maness. Maness made his UFC debut in August, taking a decision over fellow debutant Johnny Munoz, while Sanders was last seen winning by TKO over Renan Barao of all people.

Sanders’ UFC record, to be frank, doesn’t really reflect his skills. He’s dangerous in all areas, hits hard, and is an excellent athlete. If he can keep himself more focused, then he could make some real noise in the 135lbs division. Maness is far less proven at this level, and so I’ll take Sanders to win by decision.

In what should be a wild Featherweight fight, Spike Carlyle takes on Bill Algeo. Carlyle has been compared to the likes of Diego Sanchez for his wild attack, although he’s shown in his UFC appearances that, unlike Sanchez, he does have a tendency to run out of steam. However, it’s unlikely that many opponents would be able to withstand the storm that Alpha Ginger brings.

So can Algeo weather the storm and capitalize as Carlyle tires out? Quite possibly. He’s never been stopped by strikes and was able to go the distance against Ricardo Lamas in his UFC debut. If this one has a finish, then it’ll be Carlyle with his hand raised. But I suspect he’ll gas out again, and Algeo will take a decision.

Finally, late replacement Kai Kamaka III takes on Jonathan Pearce in the Featherweight division. Kamaka is relatively inexperienced in the UFC – he’s just 1-0 there – but his family have been around the Hawaiian MMA scene for years. He’s a well-rounded fighter, albeit one who doesn’t tend to finish his foes.

Meanwhile, Pearce wasn’t given much of a chance to impress in his UFC debut, as veteran Joe Lauzon destroyed him in just over a minute. This one is tricky to call, but when you take into account the late notice for Kamaka, I’m going with Pearce to earn a decision.