UFC Predictions: UFC Vegas 15: Blaydes vs. Lewis - Predictions and Picks

#4 UFC Welterweight Division: Miguel Baeza vs. Takashi Sato

Miguel Baeza has impressed since his UFC debut last year.

In terms of fighters with potential, this is probably the best fight on the card outside of the main event. Both men have had excellent results in the UFC thus far, and the winner of this one should progress further in the Welterweight division, perhaps into a fight with an opponent in the top 15.

Baeza is thus far undefeated in UFC action at 2-0. He debuted in 2019 with a violent win over Hector Aldana but really opened eyes this May with a TKO of Matt Brown. Sure, Brown isn’t what he once was, but Caramel Thunder still destroyed him with strikes in the second round.

What was notable about the fight was that the win didn’t come easy. Brown had Baeza badly hurt in the first round, knocking him down and assaulting him with his usual ferocity. However, the prospect survived, came back, and eventually finished Brown in the second.

Interestingly, Baeza isn’t just a wild striker - he’s also a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt. And while he doesn’t have any submission wins on his ledger, he’s clearly dangerous on the mat too.

Sato is more of a veteran, having fought professionally since 2013. He’s got a strong record of 16-3, with most of those wins coming in Japan’s Pancrase promotion. Ten debuted in the UFC in early 2019 with a vicious win over Ben Saunders, and most recently took out late replacement Jason Witt in just 48 seconds.

However, sandwiched in between those two wins was a loss to Belal Muhammad. That fight was a pretty poor showing for Sato, who wasn’t able to have much success with his strikes due to the threat of Muhammad’s takedowns. Eventually, the UFC veteran was able to submit Ten with a rear-naked choke.

Essentially then, this looks like a pretty even fight from a striking standpoint. Both men look technically pretty solid and clearly pack plenty of KO power. However, when you consider that another of Sato’s losses came to UFC veteran Glaico Franca – again by submission – I worry about the grappling side of things for him in this fight.

Baeza hasn’t really shown any grappling in the UFC yet, but we know he’s accomplished enough on the ground. More to the point, judging by that Muhammad fight, even the threat of the takedown might be enough to force Sato onto his back foot.

If Baeza can do that, then there’s every chance he can take out the Japanese fighter in a blitz before he’s got a chance to really return fire. And if he can’t, well, he appeared to be able to take a serious shot judging on that Brown fight anyway.

This should be a fun fight, but I think Baeza simply has more ways to win, and thus I’m taking him via second-round TKO.

The Pick: Baeza via second-round TKO