UFC Predictions: UFC Vegas 16: Hermansson vs. Vettori - Predictions and Picks

After last weekend saw the UFC cancel their main event when Curtis Blaydes tested positive for COVID-19, they’ll be hoping for more luck this time around. UFC Vegas 16 has already seen two changes to its headliner, and the promotion will be praying that the current match of Jack Hermansson vs. Marvin Vettori stays intact.

Elsewhere on the card, there should be some decent fights, but like UFC Vegas 15, this is a show largely devoid of name value. UFC fans will need to wait a couple of weeks for that.

Until then though, here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Vegas 16: Hermansson vs. Vettori.

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#1 UFC Middleweight Division: Jack Hermansson vs. Marvin Vettori

Jack Hermansson submitted Kelvin Gastelum in his last UFC fight

Vettori is actually Hermansson’s third different opponent on this card, as the Swede was initially pegged to face Darren Till. That would’ve been a fight with major ramifications for the UFC Middleweight division, but when Till was forced out with an injury, Hermansson was handed a fight with the streaking Kevin Holland instead.

Beating Holland would probably have allowed Hermansson to remain in the title picture, but of course, Holland was also forced out due to COVID-19. So now, ‘The Joker’ is faced with arguably a more dangerous opponent than Holland in a fight that he really can’t afford to lose.

So can Vettori spring a bit of an upset on relatively late notice? Well, thankfully for ‘The Italian Dream’, he’s not going to come into this fight with zero preparation. Vettori was initially pegged to face Jacare Souza at UFC 256 on December 12th, meaning he’s basically just shifted his fight forward a week.

However, Hermansson sounds like a really difficult test for the Italian. Vettori has been in the UFC now since 2016, and over that period, he’s gradually improved his overall game. A highly physical fighter, Vettori looks to bully his opponents inside the clinch and with his takedowns, and while he’s not a brilliant kickboxer, he’s more than happy to hold his own standing.

Right now, ‘The Italian Dream’ is on a three-fight win streak, and most recently submitted kickboxer Karl Roberson with a rear naked choke in June.

In Hermansson though, he’s faced with a bit of a nightmare opponent. Like Vettori, ‘The Joker’ also debuted in the UFC in 2016, and while he’s taken a few losses, he’s largely been able to climb through the ranks in impressive fashion.

The Swede is highly skilled, but it’s notable that he’s a fighter who makes the most of his natural physical gifts. At 6’1”, Hermansson isn’t the tallest Middleweight on the UFC’s roster, but his 77.5” reach is practically freakish.

And ‘The Joker’ looks to use that reach to full advantage both standing and on the ground. We saw him use his jab and length on the feet to outpoint Jacare Souza in probably his biggest UFC win to date in 2019, and his long arms have led him to a pair of impressive guillotine choke wins in the UFC, over Gerald Meerschaert and David Branch.

Most recently, he picked up a huge win in July, submitting former UFC title challenger Kelvin Gastelum with a heel hook.

Hermansson has shown one real weakness in his UFC career – he does leave himself a little open to being hit on the feet, and against concussive strikers like Jared Cannonier and Thiago Santos, it’s easy to understand why he was knocked out.

However, Vettori doesn’t have the thudding power of either man, and it’s also worth noting that Cannonier’s reach actually matched that of Hermansson. ‘The Italian Dream’, on the other hand, is giving up 3.5” of reach to the Swede.

Overall I think this should be Hermansson’s fight to lose. If he can keep Vettori at the end of his strikes, avoid clinching with him and perhaps surprise him with a takedown, he’ll find a path to victory.

Vettori is probably tough enough to last the distance – he’s never been finished in the UFC – but I see this as a lopsided win for Hermansson.

The Pick: Hermansson via unanimous decision

#2 UFC Light-Heavyweight Division: Ovince St. Preux vs. Jamahal Hill

Ovince St. Preux is the UFC's best gatekeeper at 205lbs

Once a UFC Light-Heavyweight title challenger, Ovince St. Preux now finds himself in a bit of a unique spot in the UFC’s 205lbs division. He’s essentially the division’s premier gatekeeper, as he’s not as horribly shopworn as say, Mauricio Rua. But unlike Anthony Smith, for example, he’s miles away from the title picture.

‘OSP’ has also had a pretty interesting 2020. After defeating Michal Oleksiejczuk to close out 2019, he made an odd move up to Heavyweight, only to spend most of his fight with Ben Rothwell running away. St. Preux lost that fight, and then dropped down and easily took care of prospect Alonzo Menifield in September.

Essentially, St. Preux is dangerous in all areas. We’ve seen him both knock out and submit opponents in the UFC, and he’s also more than capable of grinding a fight out with his clinch and wrestling.

However, ‘OSP’ seems to have become a more dangerous finisher as his UFC career has gone on – he actually hasn’t won a fight by decision since 2016.

This fight is the latest in a long list that sees St. Preux facing a rising prospect. But will Hill prove to be more of a Dominick Reyes, or more of a Menifield, Oleksiejczuk or Tyson Pedro, who all fell to ‘OSP’?

The key to St. Preux’s wins over those three men was that they’d already shown weaknesses ‘OSP’ could capitalise on.

Menifield’s struggles on the ground – and struggles in general if he failed to land a big shot – were already exposed by Devin Clark, and ‘OSP’ just took things further by finishing him.

Pedro and Oleksiejczuk always had deficiencies in their ground games, and St. Preux was able to capitalise on them despite finding himself in trouble at points.

So how does that play into this fight? Well, it’s worth noting that like those three fighters – and unlike Reyes – we’ve already seen some clear weaknesses from Hill.

‘Sweet Dreams’ came into the UFC off a successful appearance on Dana White’s Contender Series. He then used his unorthodox striking to outpoint Darko Stosic in January, before KOing Klidson Abreu in May – although the result was overturned due to a positive test for marijuana.

However, Hill’s win over Stosic wasn’t without plenty of faults. ‘Sweet Dreams’ showed a worrying tendency to keep his chin far too high – allowing Stosic to land shots he shouldn’t have been able to land. And more worryingly, his takedown defense appeared to be non-existent.

Hill clearly has a massive amount of potential. He carries knockout power in all of his strikes, and he’s definitely unorthodox enough to cause ‘OSP’ some problems. In fact, I’d go as far as to suggest that if this fight ends with a knockout, it’ll be Hill getting his hand raised.

Overall though, I feel like ‘OSP’ is simply too wily a veteran to fall for Hill’s unorthodox style. He’s too used to dealing with rising prospects in the UFC and sending them packing, and when those prospects have clear holes in their game like Hill does, he’s more than adept at using those holes to win.

I suspect ‘OSP’ might find himself in trouble early here, but once things settle down, he’ll find a way to get Hill to the ground and will probably submit him there. In fact, you wouldn’t bet against him using his now-patented ‘Von Preux’ choke for the fifth time in his UFC career for a win.

The Pick: St. Preux via second-round submission

#3 UFC Flyweight Division: Montana De La Rosa vs. Taila Santos

Montana De La Rosa is hunting for her second UFC win of 2020

For me at least, the UFC women’s Flyweight division is the most frustrating in the entire promotion. Sure, reigning UFC champion Valentina Shevchenko is a pound-for-pound great right now, but for the most part, none of the other fighters at 125lbs can hold a candle to her.

Essentially, it’s everything the men’s Flyweight division was once criticised for, except where the male 125lbers were genuinely great athletes, it feels like the majority of the women at 125lbs aren’t at that level at all.

Case in point, a fight like this. De La Rosa has now been in the UFC since 2017, and her fights always tend to follow the same pattern. She’s a passable striker at best and a pretty excellent wrestler and grappler, particularly when she can actually get an opponent down.

However, she’s simply not the best athlete in the UFC, and so when she’s faced with someone who’s a little quicker and more explosive, she doesn’t tend to have a lot to offer.

That issue explains her pre-UFC losses to Mackenzie Dern and Cynthia Calvillo – two of the better female athletes in the UFC right now – and also explains her UFC losses to Andrea Lee and Viviane Araujo.

The big question here then is whether Santos is more Andrea Lee than Nadia Kassem or Mara Romero Borella. Let’s look at the evidence.

The Brazilian is 16-1 in MMA overall, a solid record by anyone’s standards. However, all but two of those fights came on the Brazilian regional scene against unknown opponents. In the UFC, meanwhile, Santos is 1-1.

Worryingly for this fight, one of those losses saw her beaten by Borella in what was a largely dull fight. Essentially, the two women exchanged takedowns, positions in the clinch and strikes, and while Santos did get the better of the Italian standing, it wasn’t quite enough for her to win.

However, Santos’ next fight in the UFC was much better. She comfortably defeated Molly McCann in July, dominating her in all areas but particularly on the ground. That performance is enough for me to suspect that you can’t use MMA Math here and simply suggest that because De La Rosa beat Borella, she should be able to beat Santos too.

For me this one will come down to who can land the takedown and get the better of the grappling exchanges. Santos is perhaps the better striker, but the likelihood is that she’s not going to be capable of keeping De La Rosa at the end of her strikes.

But while De La Rosa is a capable grappler, I’m not sure she’s got the moxy to keep Santos completely grounded, given how the Brazilian looked against McCann. With that in mind, I think Santos probably has more paths to victory and so I’m going with her, albeit in a fight that’ll probably end with a dull decision.

The Pick: Santos via unanimous decision

#4 UFC Light-Heavyweight Division: Roman Dolidze vs. John Allan Arte

Roman Dolidze impressed in his UFC debut against Khadis Ibragimov

This UFC Light-Heavyweight clash should be a fair fight at least when it comes to chemical enhancement. Dolidze was banned for a year by USADA even before setting foot in the Octagon after he was flagged for using banned hormones, while Arte saw his last UFC win overturned for the same reason. It’s no surprise then that this is the Brazilian’s first UFC appearance in over a year.

Dolidze, however, has fought more recently. He made his delayed UFC debut in July and utterly destroyed Russia’s Khadis Ibragimov, landing a massive knee to turn out his lights in the first round. The win was his 7th in MMA, and he’s also finished all of his opponents.

Overall though, it might’ve been a bit of a red herring in terms of his fighting style. Judging by pre-UFC footage on him, Dolidze is far more of a grappler than a striker. Aggressive to a fault, he tends to rush his opponents with strikes and then looks to either beat them down with punches or submit them.

The native of Georgia hasn’t really shown many weaknesses yet, but to be fair, when you’re finishing fights so quickly for the most part it’s hard to spot them. However, I’d probably question what would happen if an opponent could stop Dolidze’s takedowns – particularly if that opponent were a sharp striker.

So is Arte the man to test the Georgian? It’s hard to say. ‘The Hunter’ has far more experience than his opponent here – he’s 13-5 in MMA and did win his UFC debut before the result was overturned by USADA.

However, while he clearly throws with power and aggression, he doesn’t look like a pinpoint striker to me. Unsurprisingly for a product of the Chute Boxe academy, Arte looks like he’s more adept at simply swarming an opponent with power hooks to look for the knockout.

Indeed, nine of his 13 wins have come by KO or TKO, and while he does have three submissions to his name, it’s also worth noting that fellow UFC fighter Vinicius Moreira was able to hand him a tapout loss – one of four on his ledger.

Arte’s UFC debut was a back-and-forth affair with Mike Rodriguez, and to me, it doesn’t bode well for his chances in this fight. The Brazilian was taken down a couple of times by Rodriguez and was also reversed, despite eventually winning the exchanges on the ground.

However, his aggressive, straight-ahead punching style seems tailor made to allow an opponent like Dolidze to ground him with a takedown. And if the Georgian can do that, then particularly from the top, he appears to be the superior grappler.

Add in the fact that Arte’s had trouble with submissions before and has been away from the UFC for well over a year, and I’m favouring Dolidze in this one. Arte could get him out of there in a rush, but as long as Dolidze can survive that first blitz I think it’s his fight, probably by submission.

The Pick: Dolidze via first-round submission

#5 UFC Featherweight Division: Movsar Evloev vs. Nate Landwehr

Movsar Evloev is unbeaten in the UFC at 3-0

This Featherweight clash should probably be close one to call. With a combined MMA record of 27-3, both Evloev and Landwehr bring plenty of experience into the UFC, and thus far they’ve been semi-successful in the UFC too.

Evloev is 3-0 in the UFC, with wins over Seung Woo Choi, Enrique Barzola and Mike Grundy. Aggression is the name of the Russian native's game, even if it hasn’t led him to too many finishes. In his three UFC wins, for instance, he’s gone the distance every time.

However, it’s worth noting that Barzola and Grundy are hardly the easiest men to finish. Overall, Evloev is the kind of fighter who never stops pressing forward, whether that’s to wing his heavy punches at his opponent or to take them down, where he’ll attempt to pass guard and land shots or look for a submission.

Landwehr – who interestingly climbed up the ladder on the Russian regional scene – has seen mixed results in the UFC. He was knocked out by Herbert Burns in his UFC debut, but rebounded well to defeat veteran Darren Elkins in his last fight.

However, that result wasn’t quite as impressive as it sounds on paper. Landwehr busted Elkins open with his strikes, but ‘The Damage’ has so much scar tissue on his face that to make him bleed is not as tricky a task as it once was. And he never truly hurt Elkins or had him on the verge of being finished.

Essentially, ‘The Train’ looks like your classic blood-and-thunder regional fighter who’s got enough aggression, toughness and skills to get through to the UFC level, but struggles to get any further due to a lack of raw athleticism.

Evloev, on the other hand, has that raw athleticism in spades. And given that a depleted Elkins was able to take Landwehr down and didn’t succumb to his strikes, and it’s hard not to imagine that the ultra-aggressive Russian will be able to take ‘The Train’ down too.

Will Evloev be able to finish Landwehr? It’d be impressive if he could, but due to Landwehr’s toughness I’m not convinced. However, I’m relatively confident in saying that the Russian should win this fight and pick up his fourth UFC win in a row in the process.

The Pick: Evloev via unanimous decision

#6 The Prelims: UFC on ESPN+ card

Gian Villante headlines this weekend's prelims against Jake Collier

The UFC is set to present seven prelim fights on ESPN+ this weekend, and at the top of the card sits a Heavyweight bout between veterans Gian Villante and Jake Collier. Interestingly, both men have blown themselves up to Heavyweight from lower divisions, and neither seems to have taken the Alistair Overeem path of bulking, either.

Villante’s Heavyweight debut was pretty diabolical to be frank. He looked slow and sluggish and eventually succumbed to a submission from Maurice Greene. He’s a high-level athlete for sure, but at this stage it’s honestly hard to really know what you’re going to get from him.

Collier looked equally bad to be fair in his own Heavyweight debut, taking a TKO loss to prospect Tom Aspinall in under a minute. Essentially then, this one could go either way, but I’m favouring the raw power and athleticism of Villante to win him a TKO.

At Lightweight, longtime UFC veteran Matt Wiman takes on Jordan Leavitt. This will be Leavitt’s UFC debut, while for Wiman, it’ll be his 18th appearance in the Octagon. Leavitt is very unproven at this level, but ‘The Monkey King’ looks like a high-level athlete with skills in all areas. And to be honest, that might be enough here.

At 37 years old and with over 15 years of wars behind him, it’s pretty safe to say that Wiman is miles past his prime. Given you’ve got to go back to 2014 to find his last victory, I’m not convinced he’s capable at this level any more. With that in mind, I’m taking Leavitt via TKO.

At Flyweight, Jimmy Flick faces Cody Durden. This should be a tricky fight to call. Durden is a pretty well-rounded fighter with skills in all areas, although he’s not outstanding in any. Flick is a very skilled grappler, but he does seem to lack when it comes to defending heavy strikes.

It’s fair to suggest that Flick impressed in his appearance on Dana White’s Contender Series, but I’m just not convinced his submission-hunting style is going to work all that well here. Durden via TKO is my pick.

At Featherweight, Ilia Topuria takes on Damon Jackson. Initially debuting in the UFC way back in 2014, Jackson returned to the promotion in September, submitting the dangerous Mirsad Bektic in his biggest victory to date.

Topuria, meanwhile, made his UFC debut in October with a clear-cut decision win over Youssef Zalal. A phenomenal athlete, Topuria has skills in all areas and plenty of aggression. This one is a tricky fight to call, but I’m leaning towards Topuria. Jackson is a dangerous finisher but I feel like Topuria’s style can wear him out, leading to the Spaniard taking a decision.

In the Lightweight division, Gabriel Benitez takes on Justin Jaynes. A hardened veteran, Benitez has been with the UFC since 2014, but hasn’t won a UFC fight now since his 2018 win over Humberto Bandenay. More importantly, he hasn’t won yet at 155lbs.

Jaynes looks like a beatable opponent to me, though. He was outclassed by Gavin Tucker in his last UFC outing and while he’ll have some size on Benitez, I’m not convinced he’s the type to be able to beat the gritty Mexican. With that in mind, I think ‘Moggly’ will grind his way to a decision win.

Finally, at Bantamweight, Louis Smolka faces Jose Quinonez. This fight was initially pegged to take place a couple of weeks ago at UFC Vegas 14, but fell apart when Smolka struggled with his weight cut. That was surprising given Smolka is a smaller Bantamweight, but suggests he might’ve bulked up somewhat.

Overall, this fight should still come down to who can start the fastest, as like Smolka, Quinonez is good on offense but poor on defense. I feel like Smolka is probably the better grappler though, so I’m going to take the native of Hawaii to win by submission.