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#3 UFC Flyweight Division: Montana De La Rosa vs. Taila Santos

Montana De La Rosa is hunting for her second UFC win of 2020

For me at least, the UFC women’s Flyweight division is the most frustrating in the entire promotion. Sure, reigning UFC champion Valentina Shevchenko is a pound-for-pound great right now, but for the most part, none of the other fighters at 125lbs can hold a candle to her.

Essentially, it’s everything the men’s Flyweight division was once criticised for, except where the male 125lbers were genuinely great athletes, it feels like the majority of the women at 125lbs aren’t at that level at all.

Case in point, a fight like this. De La Rosa has now been in the UFC since 2017, and her fights always tend to follow the same pattern. She’s a passable striker at best and a pretty excellent wrestler and grappler, particularly when she can actually get an opponent down.

However, she’s simply not the best athlete in the UFC, and so when she’s faced with someone who’s a little quicker and more explosive, she doesn’t tend to have a lot to offer.

That issue explains her pre-UFC losses to Mackenzie Dern and Cynthia Calvillo – two of the better female athletes in the UFC right now – and also explains her UFC losses to Andrea Lee and Viviane Araujo.

The big question here then is whether Santos is more Andrea Lee than Nadia Kassem or Mara Romero Borella. Let’s look at the evidence.

The Brazilian is 16-1 in MMA overall, a solid record by anyone’s standards. However, all but two of those fights came on the Brazilian regional scene against unknown opponents. In the UFC, meanwhile, Santos is 1-1.

Worryingly for this fight, one of those losses saw her beaten by Borella in what was a largely dull fight. Essentially, the two women exchanged takedowns, positions in the clinch and strikes, and while Santos did get the better of the Italian standing, it wasn’t quite enough for her to win.

However, Santos’ next fight in the UFC was much better. She comfortably defeated Molly McCann in July, dominating her in all areas but particularly on the ground. That performance is enough for me to suspect that you can’t use MMA Math here and simply suggest that because De La Rosa beat Borella, she should be able to beat Santos too.

For me this one will come down to who can land the takedown and get the better of the grappling exchanges. Santos is perhaps the better striker, but the likelihood is that she’s not going to be capable of keeping De La Rosa at the end of her strikes.

But while De La Rosa is a capable grappler, I’m not sure she’s got the moxy to keep Santos completely grounded, given how the Brazilian looked against McCann. With that in mind, I think Santos probably has more paths to victory and so I’m going with her, albeit in a fight that’ll probably end with a dull decision.

The Pick: Santos via unanimous decision