UFC Predictions: UFC Vegas 16: Hermansson vs. Vettori - Predictions and Picks

#6 The Prelims: UFC on ESPN+ card

Gian Villante headlines this weekend's prelims against Jake Collier

The UFC is set to present seven prelim fights on ESPN+ this weekend, and at the top of the card sits a Heavyweight bout between veterans Gian Villante and Jake Collier. Interestingly, both men have blown themselves up to Heavyweight from lower divisions, and neither seems to have taken the Alistair Overeem path of bulking, either.

Villante’s Heavyweight debut was pretty diabolical to be frank. He looked slow and sluggish and eventually succumbed to a submission from Maurice Greene. He’s a high-level athlete for sure, but at this stage it’s honestly hard to really know what you’re going to get from him.

Collier looked equally bad to be fair in his own Heavyweight debut, taking a TKO loss to prospect Tom Aspinall in under a minute. Essentially then, this one could go either way, but I’m favouring the raw power and athleticism of Villante to win him a TKO.

At Lightweight, longtime UFC veteran Matt Wiman takes on Jordan Leavitt. This will be Leavitt’s UFC debut, while for Wiman, it’ll be his 18th appearance in the Octagon. Leavitt is very unproven at this level, but ‘The Monkey King’ looks like a high-level athlete with skills in all areas. And to be honest, that might be enough here.

At 37 years old and with over 15 years of wars behind him, it’s pretty safe to say that Wiman is miles past his prime. Given you’ve got to go back to 2014 to find his last victory, I’m not convinced he’s capable at this level any more. With that in mind, I’m taking Leavitt via TKO.

At Flyweight, Jimmy Flick faces Cody Durden. This should be a tricky fight to call. Durden is a pretty well-rounded fighter with skills in all areas, although he’s not outstanding in any. Flick is a very skilled grappler, but he does seem to lack when it comes to defending heavy strikes.

It’s fair to suggest that Flick impressed in his appearance on Dana White’s Contender Series, but I’m just not convinced his submission-hunting style is going to work all that well here. Durden via TKO is my pick.

At Featherweight, Ilia Topuria takes on Damon Jackson. Initially debuting in the UFC way back in 2014, Jackson returned to the promotion in September, submitting the dangerous Mirsad Bektic in his biggest victory to date.

Topuria, meanwhile, made his UFC debut in October with a clear-cut decision win over Youssef Zalal. A phenomenal athlete, Topuria has skills in all areas and plenty of aggression. This one is a tricky fight to call, but I’m leaning towards Topuria. Jackson is a dangerous finisher but I feel like Topuria’s style can wear him out, leading to the Spaniard taking a decision.

In the Lightweight division, Gabriel Benitez takes on Justin Jaynes. A hardened veteran, Benitez has been with the UFC since 2014, but hasn’t won a UFC fight now since his 2018 win over Humberto Bandenay. More importantly, he hasn’t won yet at 155lbs.

Jaynes looks like a beatable opponent to me, though. He was outclassed by Gavin Tucker in his last UFC outing and while he’ll have some size on Benitez, I’m not convinced he’s the type to be able to beat the gritty Mexican. With that in mind, I think ‘Moggly’ will grind his way to a decision win.

Finally, at Bantamweight, Louis Smolka faces Jose Quinonez. This fight was initially pegged to take place a couple of weeks ago at UFC Vegas 14, but fell apart when Smolka struggled with his weight cut. That was surprising given Smolka is a smaller Bantamweight, but suggests he might’ve bulked up somewhat.

Overall, this fight should still come down to who can start the fastest, as like Smolka, Quinonez is good on offense but poor on defense. I feel like Smolka is probably the better grappler though, so I’m going to take the native of Hawaii to win by submission.