UFC Predictions: UFC Vegas 17: Thompson vs. Neal predictions and picks

Despite losing its epic main event of Leon Edwards vs. Khamzat Chimaev, UFC Vegas 17 remains one of 2020’s biggest UFC cards.

Sure, it doesn’t have the name value of a major UFC pay-per-view, but this is an insane card in sheer volume alone. With 15 fights on tap, it’s actually one of the deepest in UFC history.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Vegas 17: Thompson vs. Neal.

Also tune in to the Cage Theory podcast as UFC 256 is reviewed and we look forward to the Wonderboy fight.

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#1 UFC Welterweight division: Stephen Thompson vs. Geoff Neal

Stephen Thompson has made his UFC career out of picking apart fellow strikers.

Okay, so this main event isn’t Chimaev vs. Edwards, but it’s still a solid UFC Welterweight bout in its own right. It pits the former UFC title challenger Wonderboy against one of the UFC’s most explosive prospects in Handz of Steel – but who takes the win?

Neal is 5-0 in his UFC career to date. A ridiculously athletic specimen, Neal’s bread-and-butter is his explosive kickboxing. He carries brutal knockout power in pretty much every strike he throws. And the fact that he was able to knock out Mike Perry is impressive given Perry’s strong chin.

As far as weaknesses go, Neal hasn’t really shown any yet. Belal Muhammad attempted to test his grappling but was simply shut down, and all of his other foes have been slaughtered.

This fight will be different, though, in that Thompson has built his UFC career on picking apart explosive strikers. The likes of Robert Whittaker, Jake Ellenberger, and Jorge Masvidal – all superior athletes to Wonderboy – barely laid a glove on him before they were dismantled.

So can Thompson do the same to Neal? It’s hard to say. It is true that explosive fighters have had some success against Wonderboy before – Tyron Woodley hurt him badly in their two fights while Anthony Pettis knocked him out. However, to beat him, expert timing is needed.

It is worth noting, though, that Wonderboy hasn’t fought since November 2019, and at 37, he isn’t getting any younger. He looked great in his last win, but a year has elapsed since, and at some point, those reflexes are going to slow down.

The smart pick here is probably Thompson. He’s lost fights before, but never to a fighter with the explosive striking of Neal. On the other hand, Handz of Steel has certainly never faced anyone like Wonderboy.

However, I’m going for the slight upset here, picking Neal by KO. I simply feel like he’s durable, powerful, and won’t go down easily. And with his unbelievable explosiveness and speed, he’s likely to catch the older Wonderboy at some point – and put him down for good.

The Pick: Neal via third-round KO

#2: UFC Bantamweight division: Jose Aldo vs. Marlon Vera

Marlon Vera faces his greatest challenge this weekend against former UFC champ Jose Aldo.

This weekend’s co-main event sees former UFC Featherweight kingpin Aldo facing off with rising contender Vera. So will Aldo be able to bounce back from his loss to UFC champ Petr Yan with a win? Or will Chito rise to the occasion and pick up his biggest win to date?

Vera has been with the UFC now for six years, but this is the closest he’s ever come to legitimate UFC title contention. For the most part, he’s been seen as a reliable action fighter. However, his UFC record of 10-5 is strong, and the only loss he’s suffered in his past seven fights was a bogus decision to fellow contender Song Yadong.

Essentially, the Ecuadorian is a jack-of-all-trades with pretty nasty offense in all areas. At 5’8” and with a 70.5” reach, Vera is a long Bantamweight who uses that length well, landing kicks and strikes from the outside and threatening with chokes in particular on the ground.

We all know about Aldo’s overall game now. He’s one of the most accomplished strikers in UFC history, and while he doesn’t always show it, he’s also got a dangerous ground game. However, the former UFC champ is now 34 years old, and he’s lost his last three fights.

Admittedly, his “loss” to Marlon Moraes probably should’ve been a win – showing he could cope at the top of the Bantamweight division. But his defeat to Yan was worrying. The Russian basically beat Aldo from pillar to post, very much proving the generational gap between the two fighters.

Aldo, in his prime, would be massively favored against a fighter like Vera. Despite being shorter, the former UFC champ has a similar reach and would’ve likely butchered Chito with his leg kicks.

Aldo coming off the loss to Yan, though, is another thing entirely, and that’s why this one is so interesting. If Vera’s given the opportunity, there’s no doubt that he can put Aldo away.

However, I’m going with the safe pick in this fight. Aldo might’ve lost to Yan badly, but there’s a reason the Russian is the UFC champion. Before that, he looked excellent against Moraes, and Vera hasn’t done anything to suggest he’s quite on that level yet.

With that in mind, my pick is Aldo via decision.

The Pick: Aldo via unanimous decision

#3 The Main Card: UFN on ESPN+ card

Former NFL star Greg Hardy features on this weekend's UFC undercard.

The rest of Saturday’s main card features four fights. A UFC Welterweight bout between Michel Pereira and Khaos Williams sounds like tremendous fun for starters.

This bout will see two of the UFC’s most explosive athletes going head-to-head, with both men coming off the best performance of their UFC career. This one is tricky to pick – Pereira is the more varied striker, but I suspect Williams’ power will pull him through, and so I’m taking him to win via KO.

In the UFC Bantamweight division, Marlon Moraes faces Rob Font. Moraes was last seen being KO’d by Cory Sandhagen, so this fight should tell us a lot about where he figures in the division right now. Font is a tricky opponent simply due to his lanky style – he’s 5’8” and has a 71.5” reach.

Moraes, though, is the more explosive fighter, and if he can get his leg kicks going, I suspect that he can cut Font down to size. If Font can land a big shot, then he could test Moraes’ durability, but he also hasn’t fought in the UFC in a year. With that in mind, I’m taking Moraes via decision.

In the UFC Heavyweight division, Greg Hardy faces his biggest test to date when he takes on Marcin Tybura. Hardy will have a big speed and athleticism advantage here, but Tybura is tough, has far more UFC experience, and has great skills in all areas.

Despite that, though, I’m going with Hardy. He hits hard, even for a Heavyweight, and we’ve seen Tybura lose three fights by KO in the UFC thus far. And while Tybura is on a three-fight win streak, it’s also worth noting that he’s been fighting against very slow opponents.

On the other hand, Hardy has continued to improve steadily, and while he’s not the finished article yet, I think his athleticism pulls him through here. Hardy via TKO is my pick.

Finally, Anthony Pettis faces Alex Morono in the UFC Welterweight division. This one should come down to how much Showtime still has in the tank. He beat Donald Cerrone back in May, but to be frank, both men looked past their sell-by-date in that fight.

Morono is clearly not on the same level as any of Pettis’ recent opponents. He’s solid enough – carrying a 7-4 UFC record – but he lacks the raw athleticism needed to get to the top of the UFC, and he’s been knocked out before.

For me, this could be a nice fight for Pettis right now. Morono doesn’t have the offense to really hurt Showtime as the likes of Nate Diaz and Tony Ferguson did, and he isn’t good enough on the ground to get the better of Pettis there either.

In fact, Pettis’ underrated submission skills might be the area that wins him this fight. I’m going with ‘Showtime’ via tapout.

#4 The Prelims: UFC on ESPN+ card picks

Picks in bold

UFC Welterweight division: Belal Muhammad vs. Dhiego Lima

UFC Bantamweight division: Sijara Eubanks vs. Pannie Kianzad

Catchweight bout: Deron Winn vs. Antonio Arroyo

UFC Bantamweight division: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Drako Rodriguez

UFC Middleweight division: Jamie Pickett vs. Tafon Nchukwi

UFC Lightweight division: Rick Glenn vs. Carlton Minus

UFC Flyweight division: Jimmy Flick vs. Cody Durden

UFC Flyweight division: Gillian Robertson vs. Taila Santos

UFC Middleweight division: Dalcha Lungiambula vs. Karl Roberson