UFC Predictions: UFC Vegas 19: Curtis Blaydes vs. Derrick Lewis predictions and picks

After last weekend’s big UFC 258 event, the UFC returns to its APEX facility this weekend for UFC Vegas 19.

The main event sees a clash of UFC Heavyweight contenders, as Curtis Blaydes faces off against Derrick Lewis, while Bantamweights Ketlen Vieira and Yana Kunitskaya face off in the co-main.

The rest of the card is far weaker, with only a handful of recognizable names. But as always with the UFC, it's worth watching the show as you never know when a classic fight is coming.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Vegas 19: Blaydes vs. Lewis.

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#1 UFC Heavyweight division: Curtis Blaydes vs. Derrick Lewis

Curtis Blaydes is probably the UFC Heavyweight division's best wrestler.

With a UFC Heavyweight title fight between champion Stipe Miocic and top contender Francis Ngannou finally signed for next month’s UFC 260, the stakes are high in this fight.

A win for either man – particularly a big finish that goes viral – could propel them into the next title shot. However, the presence of Jon Jones in the Heavyweight division might change that.

UFC President Dana White has claimed Jones will be next in line for a shot at Miocic or Ngannou, but Blaydes, in particular, could change that here.

Razor is on a four-fight win streak coming into this weekend, and stylistically, he seems like a tricky test for Miocic in particular.

If Ngannou – who has beaten Blaydes twice – were to win the title, things would obviously be different. But if Miocic retains the belt, then there’d definitely be an argument for Blaydes, and not Jones, taking the next shot – particularly if he wins big against Lewis.

What’s on the line for Lewis? In all honesty, probably nothing. The Black Beast already had his UFC Heavyweight title shot, coming up short in 2018 against then-champ Daniel Cormier. Since then, he’s gone 3-1 but is largely seen as a popular gatekeeper these days.

So who is likely to take this one? To be honest, it’s hard not to favor Blaydes.

Razor is probably the best wrestler in the UFC Heavyweight division right now. Indeed, he holds the record for the most takedowns landed in a UFC Heavyweight fight after dumping Alexander Volkov 14 times in their fight last summer.

Blaydes has been criticized – even by White – for a somewhat dull fighting style, but that usually isn’t the case. Prior to his admittedly slower win over Volkov, he’d finished Junior Dos Santos and Shamil Abdurakhimov in violent fashion.

UFC Vegas 19 Free Fight: Curtis Blaydes vs Shamil Abdurakhimov https://t.co/0RnzJKjVLw

— mymma (@mymma11) February 15, 2021

And this fight sounds stylistically perfect for him. Lewis is a concussive puncher – arguably only Ngannou hits harder in the entire UFC – but his ground game has always been a major weakness.

Lewis’ straight-ahead style makes him relatively easy to take down, particularly for skilled wrestlers. And while he’s capable of escaping from the bottom, usually via brute force, UFC stars such as Cormier, Abdurakhimov, and Blagoy Ivanov found it relatively easy to keep him pinned.

Add in the fact that The Black Beast also lacks in the cardio department, and you’d be forgiven for questioning how he’s made it this far.

But when you possess the kind of face-melting power that Lewis does, you’ve always got a shot at winning. And so fights that The Black Beast was losing have quickly been turned around with one clubbing blow – giving him an impressive UFC record of 15-5.

Derrick Lewis always has a punchers chance (although very unlikely). #UFCVegas19 pic.twitter.com/IX3gVazVms

— Jolly Roger (@JollyRogerMMA) February 15, 2021

Therefore, Lewis can win this fight, it just won’t be easy. His best bet might be to rush Blaydes from the off, just as Ngannou did, and bank on him being too willing to trade or panicking into making sloppy errors.

However, I just don’t think that’s likely. It’s much more viable that Razor takes Lewis down early on, advances to the mount or back mount, and punches him very hard until the referee has to step in. A win like that would make Blaydes 11-2 in the UFC – and should net him a UFC title shot.

The Pick: Blaydes via second-round TKO

#2 UFC Bantamweight division: Ketlen Vieira vs. Yana Kunitskaya

Ketlen Vieira was close to a UFC title shot in 2018 before being sidelined with injuries.

In terms of name value, this co-main event is definitely lacking. However, both of these women are highly skilled fighters. And in the thin UFC Bantamweight division, they may well be closer to a title shot than you might think.

Many people figured Vieira would’ve had her shot by this point. Fenomeno burst into the UFC in 2015 and reeled off two wins. She then made a big step up by largely dominating former title challengers Sara McMann and Cat Zingano.

Those wins had her on the cusp of a shot at UFC Bantamweight champ Amanda Nunes, only for injuries to strike. Vieira was kept out of action for 21 months, and when she returned, she was knocked out by Irene Aldana.

Since then, the Brazilian has picked up one UFC win over Sijara Eubanks last September.

Kunitskaya, meanwhile, came into the UFC in March 2018 as the surprise challenger for Cris Cyborg’s UFC Featherweight title. She lost by TKO but has since put together three wins at Bantamweight, along with one loss to top prospect Aspen Ladd.

This should be an interesting, if potentially dull, fight. Vieira is primarily a smothering grappler, and while her win over Eubanks showed some stand-up improvements, she’ll definitely be looking to ground Foxy on Saturday.

Kunitskaya, on the other hand, is a striker by trade. But her clinch-based style has meant that she’s never finished an opponent in the UFC.

Aldana showed that Vieira is definitely beatable if an opponent can keep her at distance. However, Kunitskaya’s penchant for clinching means that repeating Aldana’s gameplan is unlikely.

Instead, I suspect these two will close the distance quickly. And unless Kunitskaya can get some real damage off before she’s taken down, then it’ll be Vieira’s fight to lose.

The Pick: Vieira via unanimous decision

#3 UFC Vegas 19: The Main Card

Former UFC Heavyweight champion Andrei Arlovski fights on this weekend's undercard.

Saturday’s main card will see a further four bouts, beginning with a Featherweight clash between Charles Rosa and Darrick Minner.

A UFC fighter since 2014, Rosa’s career has been up-and-down, but overall, Boston Strong is an excellent fighter with skills in all areas. On the other hand, Minner has just two UFC fights to his name and has hardly stood out from the crowd.

With this considered, Rosa via submission is the pick here due to his superior experience and grappling skill.

At Heavyweight, Aleksei Oleinik faces Chris Daukaus in a veteran vs. prospect clash. Now 43 years old, Oleinik still somehow keeps on ticking with his brutal submission game and surprisingly effective clubbing striking.

Daukaus, on the other hand, debuted in the UFC last year with two TKO wins. This should come down to how much Oleinik’s chin has deteriorated, as he’s suffered three KO losses in his last five outings.

Assuming he’s not completely gone, though, I think he’s got enough about him to drag Daukaus to the ground and submit him, probably with a choke.

In the Featherweight division, Rafael Alves takes on Pat Sabatini. Both of these men are making their UFC debuts, with Sabatini taking the fight on a week’s notice. As always, this clash of debutants is tricky to pick.

Alves is wildly experienced, with a UFC debut dating back to 2007, but Sabatini has 16 fights to his name despite starting out in 2014. Both men are primarily grapplers, but Alves looks like the more aggressive of the two. I’ll take him via submission, but this is a coin flip, really.

Finally, Heavyweight veteran Andrei Arlovski faces British up-and-comer Tom Aspinall. Arlovski is now on the real downswing of his career, and while he’s got enough to beat some prospects, he’s clearly compromised in a lot of ways.

Aspinall is just 9-2, but he looks like the kind of opponent to give Arlovski problems. A huge Heavyweight, the teammate of Darren Till is a venomous grappler who also possesses brutal knockout power.

Obviously, Aspinall is wildly unproven, but I suspect, given his hard-hitting ways and youth, he’s got enough to catch Arlovski and take him out early, probably by TKO.

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#4: UFC Vegas 19: Preliminary Card

Picks in bold

UFC Middleweight division: Phil Hawes vs. Nassourdine Imavov

UFC Featherweight division: Danny Chavez vs. Jared Gordon

UFC Lightweight division: Drakkar Klose vs. Luis Pena

UFC Bantamweight division: Eddie Wineland vs. John Castaneda

UFC Featherweight division: Julian Erosa vs. Nate Landwehr

UFC Flyweight division: Shana Dobson vs. Casey O’Neill

UFC Featherweight division: Chas Skelly vs. Jamall Emmers

UFC Bantamweight division: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Drako Rodriguez

UFC Heavyweight division: Sergey Spivak vs. Jared Vanderaa