UFC Predictions: UFC Vegas 21: Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad Predictions & Picks

After a blockbuster show last weekend, the UFC returns to its APEX facility for UFC Vegas 21: Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad.

With a seven-fight main card, UFC Vegas 21 is light on name value, but could be high on action inside the Octagon.

So with this in mind, here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Vegas 21: Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad.

---

#1 UFC Welterweight division: Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad

Can Belal Muhammad pull off an upset over Leon Edwards this weekend?

Okay so firstly, this is obviously not as good a UFC main event as Leon Edwards vs. Khamzat Chimaev would’ve been.

No offense to Muhammad, who is a great fighter in his own right, but Chimaev – before his issues with COVID-19 – looked like he was a generational talent.

But with the Chechnyan out of action, this looks more like a bounce-back fight for Edwards, who hasn’t fought in the UFC since July 2019.

Edwards is a curious case overall. ‘Rocky’ debuted in the UFC back in 2014, and at the time he felt like a stereotypical British fighter – all heavy hands and not much grappling.

He went 2-2 in his first four fights, but after his 2015 loss to Kamaru Usman, something clearly changed for him. ‘Rocky’ took almost six months off, and then returned to the UFC with massively-improved grappling skills.

Since then, he’s defeated eight opponents, including Rafael Dos Anjos and Donald Cerrone, all in impressive fashion.

Edwards is a fascinating fighter in that while he’s a great athlete, he doesn’t exactly rely on his athleticism for success.

He’s a very technical striker who works from a southpaw stance to pick at his opponents with combinations. In the clinch, he’s very dangerous with his knees and elbows. And while he’s no submission whiz, his takedowns have become excellent, and he’s more than capable of winning a fight from top position.

In terms of weaknesses, ‘Rocky’ has just a couple. One is his difficulty in finishing fights. Of his eight-fight win streak, he’s won six by decision. That doesn’t tend to impress the UFC – and may well be why he hasn’t been handed a title shot yet.

He also doesn’t come over as the most physically powerful or imposing fighter – meaning that he might struggle against a fighter like Usman in a rematch, or Colby Covington.

However, this fight – on paper at least – looks like a good one for him.

Muhammad has been in the UFC since 2016, and in that time he’s put together an impressive record of 9-3.

Pace has been the name of the game for Muhammad in the UFC. He pushes his opponent at a frenetic rate, whether that’s with his takedowns or with his striking, and most of them have broken down the stretch.

Like Edwards, Muhammad’s finishing rate is poor – he’s stopped just two opponents in the UFC. But this is a big chance for him to move into contention for the UFC Welterweight title.

The problem for him is that everything he does – his striking, wrestling and even the pressure he puts on an opponent – is bettered by Edwards from a technical standpoint at least.

However, the X-factor here could be the fact that Edwards has dealt with COVID-19 and hasn’t fought in the UFC for well over a year. If ‘Rocky’ is rusty and can’t push his usual pace, then that definitely gives Muhammad an avenue to success, especially over five rounds.

However, based on Edwards’ apparent superiority in all areas, it’s hard to pick against him here. This will most likely be a workmanlike fight to watch, but ‘Rocky’ should probably edge it by decision in a relatively close fight.

The Pick: Edwards via unanimous decision

#2 UFC Light-Heavyweight division: Misha Cirkunov vs. Ryan Spann

Misha Cirkunov is one of the UFC Light-Heavyweight division's deadliest grapplers

The UFC has plenty of prospects in their Light-Heavyweight division, but right now only a handful have really been able to climb up the ladder into contention.

Will the winner of this one take another step forward? You’d like to think so. Both men have impressive UFC records – 6-3 for Cirkunov, 4-1 for Spann – but bad losses have thus far prevented them from really pushing forward.

Spann has obviously only lost once in the UFC. He was knocked out by Johnny Walker in one of the wildest fights of 2020 - a fight that saw ‘Superman’ hurt Walker badly only to find himself KO’d after getting a bit overly aggressive.

Aside from that, he’s looked largely excellent – showing skills in all areas, even if the quality of his opponents could be questioned somewhat.

Cirkunov, on the other hand, is almost a throwback fighter. A giant ball of muscle, the Latvian-Canadian is a deadly grappler who can finish seemingly from any position.

Last time we saw him was a long time ago – September 2019 to be exact – but he impressed hugely, using the rare Peruvian Necktie to tap out Jimmy Crute.

Cirkunov’s problem has come in the striking department. He’s capable of knocking opponents out and hurting them, but his style is certainly stiff. And after suffering three KO losses in the UFC, it’s probably fair to question his chin.

However, it’s worth noting that Cirkunov’s losses have all come to fighters who possess serious power in their strikes. Spann, on the other hand, has just four KO wins to his name. And his only UFC knockout came over the completely shot Antonio Rogerio Nogueira.

With that in mind, it’s a possibility that Spann can catch Cirkunov – he does have a 4” reach advantage – but it’s tricky to imagine him putting the Latvian-Canadian down, as say Volkan Oezdemir did.

It feels more likely that the two men will hit the mat. And if they do, it feels like Cirkunov will grab hold of one of Spann’s long limbs and catch him in a submission.

The Pick: Cirkunov via first-round submission

#3 UFC Vegas 21: The Main Card

Longtime UFC veteran Ben Rothwell stars on the main card this weekend

In a Heavyweight clash, Ben Rothwell faces Philipe Lins. Expect a plodding affair here between two of the UFC’s slower Heavyweights, but Rothwell may have a slight hand speed advantage and he’s still very tough. Rothwell via decision is the likely outcome.

In the Featherweight division, Dan Ige takes on Gavin Tucker in what should be a fun fight to watch. Ige hasn’t fought since his loss to Calvin Kattar, but he’s incredibly tough, can take a tremendous shot and has excellent skills in all areas.

Tucker is more unheralded, but he’s looked excellent recently and he is on a three-fight win streak. With that said, it’s hard to imagine him having the all-round skills to match Ige here, and so the Hawaiian should win via decision.

In a Strawweight bout, Angela Hill faces Ashley Yoder. This should be a classic striker vs. grappler affair, but that may be unfair to Hill, who has improved on the ground dramatically.

Despite Hill coming off a pair of losses, she should be the favourite here. She’s more proven at the higher level, hits far harder, and should be able to deal with Yoder on the ground if the fight hits the mat. Hill via decision is the pick.

In a Flyweight fight, Matheus Nicolau faces late replacement Manel Kape. Kape only fought a month ago in a losing effort against Alexandre Pantoja, and despite being largely outclassed, he did show some flashes of excellence.

Nicolau is a hard fighter to get a handle on. A powerful grappler, he looked excellent in his initial UFC run from 2015 to 2018, but was strangely released after going 3-1. Seeing him return is also odd because he’s not fought now for well over a year.

Nicolau should win this by either decision or submission based on his grappling and Kape taking the fight on such late notice. But it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Kape pull it off either.

Finally, at Middleweight, Eryk Anders faces Darren Stewart. Both of these men are powerful but somewhat limited fighters, and have the ability to stop an opponent at any time.

Of the two, though, it’s probably Anders who has the best chance of winning by perhaps capitalising on Stewart’s leaky takedown defense. It’s not likely to be pretty, but Anders via decision is the pick.

---

#4 UFC Vegas 21: The Prelims

Picks in bold

UFC Flyweight division: Cortney Casey vs. JJ Aldrich

UFC Bantamweight division: Rani Yahya vs. Ray Rodriguez

UFC Featherweight division: Charles Jourdain vs. Marcelo Rojo

UFC Bantamweight division: Jonathan Martinez vs. Davey Grant

UFC Strawweight division: Jinh Yu Frey vs. Gloria de Paula

UFC Welterweight division: Matthew Semelsberger vs. Jason Witt