UFC Predictions: UFC Vegas 26: Michelle Waterson vs. Marina Rodriguez Predictions & Picks

With its top two scheduled fights already canceled, UFC Vegas 26 is looking like one of the most cursed UFC events of 2021.

No longer headlined by Cory Sandhagen and T.J. Dillashaw, UFC Vegas 26’s main event is now set to be Michelle Waterson vs. Marina Rodriguez.

A distinct lack of name-value on the undercard means this event isn’t likely to get much interest this week, even though some of the fights may be exciting.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Vegas 26: Michelle Waterson vs. Marina Rodriguez.

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#1 UFC Flyweight division: Michelle Waterson vs. Marina Rodriguez

Michelle Waterson is one of the more skilled strikers in the UFC strawweight division

Not only has this bout been put together on late notice to save the main event, but it’s also an odd one in terms of weight class.

Both Michelle Waterson and Marina Rodriguez usually fight at strawweight (115lbs), with Waterson regularly fighting at atomweight (105lbs) before her UFC tenure.

Due to the late notice, though, the fight has reportedly been booked at flyweight (125lbs) instead.

It’s unlikely that either woman will stick around at the higher weight class after this one is done, meaning it has more meaning to the title picture at strawweight, given Rodriguez is ranked at #6 and Waterson at #9.

So who is more likely to come out on top?

Of the two, it’s arguable that Waterson is the more proven fighter, given she has more fights in the UFC (10, including three main events), although she’s ranked below Rodriguez right now.

'The Karate Hottie' defeated the likes of Karolina Kowalkiewicz, Paige VanZant, and Angela Hill, using her clean and technical striking as well as an underrated ground game to good effect.

However, she’s also run into plenty of trouble in the past, losing four bouts inside the octagon.

Essentially, Waterson isn’t the most physically imposing fighter – largely due to her history fighting as an atomweight – and when she’s been beaten, it’s been by more powerful fighters, harder hitters, or a mix of both.

On the other hand, Marina Rodriguez has shown somewhat of a pattern in her UFC career thus far.

The Brazilian is 3-1-2, with her only loss being a somewhat controversial one at the hands of Carla Esparza.

Nearly all of Rodriguez's fights have seen her do excellently on the feet, landing heavy shots at her opponents with pinpoint accuracy and plenty of aggression.

But take Marina Rodriguez down, and she’s definitely more vulnerable. We saw Esparza, as well as Cynthia Calvillo and Randa Markos, have plenty of success once they put the Brazilian on her back – despite Rodriguez reportedly holding a purple belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.

This one, then, will likely come down to a simple question: will Rodriguez be too big and powerful for Waterson to handle?

If the Brazilian can stuff Waterson’s takedown attempts – particularly that hip throw from the clinch – and land the heavier blows standing, then there’s a definite chance that she’ll win.

But if Waterson can use her technical striking to open Rodriguez up for takedowns, then there’s every chance that it’ll be her fight, too.

It’s a tough one to call, but despite Rodriguez’s higher ranking, Waterson should be hopeful – particularly as only kickboxer extraordinaire Joanna Jedrzejczyk has really beaten her standing in the UFC. Therefore, the pick is Waterson via decision.

The Pick: Waterson via unanimous decision

#2 UFC Welterweight division: Neil Magny vs. Geoff Neal

Geoff Neal will be looking for a knockout when he faces Neil Magny this weekend

Both of these men are coming off losses in their last UFC bout, but they’re still very relevant to the UFC’s welterweight division.

Geoff Neal looked like one of the quickest-rising prospects in the division before veteran Stephen Thompson derailed him at UFC Vegas 17 on December 19, 2020.

Magny meanwhile returned to action in March 2020 following a USADA suspension and settled right back into his role as an ultra-tough gatekeeper. He won three bouts before falling to high-ranked grappler Michael Chiesa at 'UFC on ESPN 20' in January 2021.

Basically, then, this one should come down to a simple question: can Magny avoid Neal’s thunderous striking and outwork him for a decision or late victory? Or will he become another knockout victim of 'Handz of Steel'?

Despite looking excellent since his 2020 return, Neil Magny largely remains the same fighter he’s always been since he made huge improvements about five years ago.

'The Haitian Sensation' has a huge frame for a welterweight, standing at 6’3” and boasting an 80-inch reach. He looks to use this to the best of his ability on the feet, usually attempting to sit behind a jab to work over his opponents.

Magny is also a stout wrestler capable of taking most opponents down, and on the ground, he has an excellent top game with solid ground and pound.

However, he’s not an expert in any single area – meaning that he does tend to struggle when he fights specialists.

And those specialists – grapplers like Michael Chiesa and Demian Maia or strikers like Lorenz Larkin and Santiago Ponzinibbio – account for basically all of his seven UFC losses.

Worryingly for him here, Geoff Neal is very much a specialist. 'Handz of Steel' is at a disadvantage when it comes to reach, but he’s quicker than Magny, hits a lot harder, and is a far more explosive athlete too.

Stephen Thompson proved that Neal can’t simply walk in and knock anyone out, but then 'Wonderboy' is a unique striker, and Magny can’t hope to replicate the kind of gameplan that he used.

Magny’s best bet would be to look to ground Neal and wear him out. Still, given that Belal Muhammad – arguably a superior wrestler – was unable to do that, the likelihood is that 'The Haitian Sensation' is in trouble.

Magny hasn’t been knocked out since his 2018 loss to Santiago Ponzinibbio at UFC Fight Night 140, but a betting man would probably expect it to happen here.

The Pick: Geoff Neal via first-round KO

#3 UFC Vegas 26: The Main Card & Preliminary Card

Middleweight prospect Phil Hawes is likely to be showcased on this weekend's main card

Unfortunately, the UFC hasn’t announced a bout order for UFC Vegas 26, meaning we’ve got little idea as to which fights will be showcased on the main card and which will be on the prelims.

To add to the top two fights, a further nine bouts are set to take place this weekend, ranging from fights in the heavyweight division all the way down to the strawweight division.

With this in mind, in no particular order, here are those bouts, with the predicted winners in bold.

Flyweight bout: Zarrukh Adashev vs. Ryan Benoit

Heavyweight bout: Maurice Greene vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima

Welterweight bout: Christian Aguilera vs. Carlston Harris

Heavyweight bout: Ben Rothwell vs. Philipe Lins

Strawweight bout: Angela Hill vs. Amanda Ribas

Featherweight bout: Michael Trizano vs. L’udovit Klein

Lightweight bout: Diego Ferreira vs. Gregor Gillespie

Middleweight bout: Phil Hawes vs. Kyle Daukaus