UFC Predictions: UFC Vegas 31: Islam Makhachev vs. Thiago Moises Predictions

#3. UFC bantamweight division: Miesha Tate vs. Marion Reneau

Miesha Tate has not fought in the UFC since 2016

The UFC is never a forgiving place, particularly for fighters who return to the octagon after a lengthy retirement. They never seem to find their groove in the same way that they once did.

We’ve seen the likes of Carlos Condit, Alexander Gustafsson and Matt Brown all struggle after returning. Now, it’s the turn of former UFC bantamweight champ Miesha Tate.

‘Cupcake’ retired back in 2016 after losses to Amanda Nunes and Raquel Pennington. After five years away, she’s now back – so can she make an impact or will she struggle?

10 days. #TheComeback #UFCVegas31 pic.twitter.com/6zOvJNQtds

— Miesha Tate (@MieshaTate) July 7, 2021

There are a few things that give Tate a decent chance of succeeding here. Firstly, she never really looked past her prime in 2016. Sure, Nunes throttled her, but Nunes destroys everyone – there’s certainly no shame in a loss to her.

And while she lost to Pennington, the fight wasn’t straightforward for ‘Rocky’, who largely grinded a win out. If anything, Tate likely hung her gloves up because she’d reached the top of the mountain, been knocked off, and, well, what else is there to prove?

Judging by recent photos of her in training, ‘Cupcake’ is still in phenomenal shape. At the age of 34, she shouldn’t be too past her athletic prime to make good on this comeback.

The UFC have also been kind to her by matching her with Reneau, a fighter who has struggled mightily in recent years.

‘The Belizean Bruiser’ has been in the UFC for six years, but she hasn’t tasted victory since her February 2018 win over Sara McMann. Since then, she’s lost four straight fights, most recently falling to Macy Chiasson in March.

Reneau is a solid fighter with a high level of athleticism, but she doesn’t outright shine in any area, and her age – she’s now 44 – means that she’s likely to be slowing down very soon, if she hasn’t already.

If Tate comes into this fight looking flat and showing the cage rust that you’d expect after five years away, then Reneau can win. However, it just seems very doubtful given her recent record.

At the end of the day, even if Tate isn’t in her prime any more, she’s still a better wrestler and she’s still got a great, somewhat underrated boxing game and an excellent gas tank. Could her return turn into disaster? Definitely, but it’s doubtful that it’ll happen in this fight.

The Pick: Tate via unanimous decision