UFC: Ultimate Fighter 28 Finale - Predictions and Picks

The first of the UFC’s two cards this weekend, The Ultimate Fighter 28 Finale takes place on Friday night from Las Vegas, Nevada. While the latest season of TUF hasn’t garnered much hype, the Finale card is surprisingly solid, and in the main event, we’ve got a fight that could decide the next top contender at Welterweight.

Historically, Ultimate Fighter Finale cards have given us some fantastic fights – from Griffin vs. Bonnar and Sanchez vs. Diaz back in 2005 all the way through to Jedrzejczyk vs. Gadelha and Johnson vs. Elliott in 2016 – so hopefully this card will be no different.

Here are the predicted outcomes for the Ultimate Fighter 28 Finale.

#1 Kamaru Usman vs. Rafael Dos Anjos

Kamaru Usman could be looking at a title shot if he can defeat Dos Anjos

Simply put, this is a huge fight worthy of any pay-per-view card right now. The fans might not be too hot on Usman due to his wrestling-heavy fighting style, which many consider to be dull, but only a fool would claim he’s not an absolutely fantastic fighter. And Dos Anjos is a former UFC Lightweight champion who’s only taken one loss at 170lbs and was closing in on a title shot before that fight.

Basically, the winner of this one should be looking at a shot at the winner of the likely Tyron Woodley vs. Colby Covington Welterweight title fight that is currently rumoured for UFC 233 in January 2019. So will it be the powerful grappling game of Usman that comes out on top? Or can Dos Anjos find an answer for his stifling top control and put him away?

Usman debuted in the UFC back in 2015, coming off a run as the most impressive fighter on the 21st season of TUF. His debut saw him submit Hayder Hassan with an arm triangle choke, and since then he’s won a further 7 fights inside the Octagon. That gives him one of the best win streaks in the UFC, but because that run has only seen him pick up one more finish – a knockout of Sergio Moraes – he’s become largely maligned by the fans.

That isn’t always fair – it isn’t the fault of ‘The Nigerian Nightmare’ that none of his opponents have found an answer for his incredible wrestling and top control, and in the form of fighters like Demian Maia, Emil Meek and Sean Strickland, he’s been facing opponents who are notoriously tricky to finish anyway.

Basically, Usman is incredibly athletic and he’s used that athleticism and a phenomenal wrestling background – he was a NCAA Division II national champion – to be able to take all of his opponents down, where he usually hunts for submissions while landing often-punishing ground strikes. His striking is cruder, but he throws with power – as Moraes found out – and he knows how to use his strikes to set up his takedowns.

Dos Anjos meanwhile is one of the most lethal offensive fighters in the UFC. On the feet, he favours a stiff jab, sweeping power hooks and chopping low kicks, and most impressively, he chains together combinations in terrifying fashion – witness the one he unleashed on Robbie Lawler last December, for instance. He’s also got powerful takedowns, crushing top control and a devastating submission game based around his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt.

‘RDA’ entered the Welterweight division in 2017 after beginning to struggle to make the 155lbs limit for Lightweight, and immediately saw success, defeating Tarec Saffiedine, Neil Magny and finally Lawler to cement himself as a title contender. When champ Tyron Woodley was sidelined with a shoulder injury, Dos Anjos was matched with fellow top contender Colby Covington in June to decide an Interim champion.

Unfortunately for RDA, he was completely outworked in that fight by ‘Chaos’, and it’s that result that makes me lean towards Usman in this fight. Covington essentially defeated Dos Anjos on the strength of two things – his takedowns and top control, and his suffocating pressure game. Interestingly, it was the exact same gameplan used by Khabib Nurmagomedov to hand RDA a loss at Lightweight back in 2014.

Dos Anjos might have superior offensive tools to Usman, but if he isn’t given the chance to use them – and there’s nothing to suggest Usman won’t look to push the pace and pressure RDA with his takedowns and striking just as Covington did – then I fail to see a path to success for him. It likely won’t be pretty, but expect Usman to grind out another one.

The Pick: Usman via unanimous decision

#2 Justin Frazier vs. Juan Espino

Juan Espino (left) will look to become the first TUF winner from Spain

This fight is the Heavyweight finals of TUF 28, and in all honesty, it doesn’t really hold too much intrigue. TUF in general has felt passé since 2016’s Flyweight-based Season 24, and despite making the finals in somewhat impressive fashion, I personally doubt that Frazier or Espino can be the fighter to restore the reality show’s reputation.

Based on their fights during the reality show tapings, it would appear that both Frazier and Espino are primarily grapplers, and they’ve also got a similar level of experience with Frazier at 10-2 and Espino at 8-1. It’s notable that they’ve also both lost to the best opponents they’ve faced – Espino to a pre-Bellator Vitaly Minakov in 2011, Frazier to a pre-UFC Derrick Lewis in 2012.

Essentially, these men are almost mirror images of one another; Frazier is perhaps more aggressive than his Spanish opponent, but despite being nearly a decade younger than Espino, he doesn’t appear to have an athletic advantage in any way. That might cause him problems as judging by his semi-final win over Maurice Greene, Espino does pack considerable power in his punches.

I doubt this fight inspires much fanfare afterwards as I just don’t see either man as being good enough athletes to make it near to the top of the division – but a few years ago Espino may well have had the potential and I’m picking him here to surprise Frazier with a big power hook and then finish him on the ground.

The Pick: Espino via second round TKO

#3 Pannie Kianzad vs. Macy Chiasson

Pannie Kianzad has far more experience than opponent Macy Chiasson

The UFC installed the Women’s Featherweight class back in February 2017 with a title fight between Germaine de Randamie and Holly Holm, but since then the division has only seen a handful of further fights; three more title fights and a clash between Holm and Megan Anderson. TUF 28 sounded like a potential kickstarter, but in all honesty it didn’t quite work out.

The reason for that was largely that the cast was made up of more natural 135lbers, rather than big 145lbers like Anderson or Cris Cyborg. Case in point, Kianzad looked like the standout fighter going into the season, but for the most part she’s fought her career at 135lbs. The same cannot be said for Chiasson, though – who makes up for her lack of experience (2-0) with a large frame clearly suited for 145lbs.

Chiasson was probably the more impressive of the two during the reality show tapings; she took out both of her opponents by first round knockout, including UFC veteran Larissa Pacheco, while Kianzad saw both of her fights go the distance. However, while it’s tempting to pick the dangerous finisher, TUF history would tell you that it isn’t always smart.

With her striking power and large frame, Chiasson might yet have a bright future in the sport, but with a full training camp for both women I’m just not confident in taking such an inexperienced fighter over a more well-rounded opponent who’s beaten Jessica-Rose Clark and Lina Lansberg and has been in there with veterans like Sarah Kaufman and Tonya Evinger.

In the end I suspect that Kianzad might find herself in trouble standing, but will have enough of a grappling game to lean back on to grind out a tough win.

The Pick: Kianzad via unanimous decision

#4 Pedro Munhoz vs. Bryan Caraway

Pedro Munhoz will be looking for another finish against Bryan Caraway

Impressively for a TUF Finale, we’ve got a battle between two top-fifteen ranked Bantamweights on tap for the main card too. This should be a super-interesting fight as Munhoz and Caraway match up well and there are plenty of questions that should be answered when the two enter the Octagon on Friday.

For Caraway, the biggest question mark is how much he actually has left. Maligned due to some unsavoury incidents during his UFC run – most notably when he fish-hooked Erik Perez in a 2014 fight – Caraway looked like he might be developing into a surprising contender when he upset Aljamain Sterling in 2016, but he subsequently sat out for two years – eroding any momentum he had – and then lost to Cody Stamann upon his return this March.

At his best, Caraway is a stifling grappler with a dangerous submission game, but he’s never been the most fluent striker on his feet and he appeared to be moving somewhat slower in the fight with Stamann, perhaps due to his age – he’s 34, which is relatively old for a Bantamweight in the UFC.

Munhoz meanwhile has been on an upward trajectory since his unsuccessful UFC debut in 2014, as he’s beaten the likes of Rob Font and Brett Johns, while only losing – in close calls – to Raphael Assuncao, Jimmie Rivera and John Dodson, all top-ranked opponents.

I’m favouring Munhoz pretty heavily here. On the feet he’s a strong pressure fighter and is a far superior striker to Caraway, and what’s more he has the finishing instincts to put away a hurt opponent – as he did in his impressive win over Font. And it’s unlikely that Caraway’s grappling pressure will work too well against ‘The Young Punisher’, as he’s equally dangerous on the ground and has one of the best guillotine chokes in the business.

Caraway may stay competitive for a round or two but I’m betting that Munhoz can not only win, but he can get ‘Kid Lightning’ out of there inside the distance, too.

The Pick: Munhoz via second round KO

#5 Darren Stewart vs. Edmen Shabazyan

Darren Stewart appears to have found his groove at 185lbs

The brawling Brit Stewart has been a pleasant surprise since his move to 185lbs in mid-2018; early in his UFC career at 205lbs he appeared to be out of his depth, as despite packing power, his cardio seemed questionable and his grappling extremely suspect. But he appears to have turned a corner now, as evidenced by his exciting wins over Eric Spicely and Charles Byrd this year.

Here he’s faced with a hugely aggressive newcomer in the form of Shabazyan, who is coming off a win on Dana White’s Contender Series earlier this year. At 21 years old, Shabazyan is already 7-0 in professional action and has yet to go the distance, which makes him a prospect to watch – at least on the surface.

The problem for him though is that – at least in his Contender Series appearance – he looked aggressive to the point of sheer recklessness, wading into the clinch with wild punches and taking a couple to give more back. If it was reminiscent of any other UFC fighter, it was former Women’s Bantamweight champ Ronda Rousey – unsurprising given that Shabazyan is also a student of Edmond Tarverdyan.

There’s always the potential that Shabazyan could take out Stewart early in a wild rush, but personally I don’t see it happening; Stewart’s issues were primarily with his cardio and grappling, not his durability, and ‘The Dentist’ hits extremely hard, particularly at 185lbs. Shabazyan will probably attempt his usual rush but find that Stewart is too tough of an opponent to take out quickly. And then he’s probably going to be in trouble.

This should be an exciting fight that doesn’t last long, but while Shabazyan’s exciting style and Rousey links may keep him around in the UFC for a while yet, I don’t think this is a good fight for him.

The Pick: Stewart via first round KO

#6 Antonina Shevchenko vs. Ji Yeon Kim

Antonina Shevchenko is looking to emulate sister Valentina's success in the UFC

Next weekend, Valentina Shevchenko faces Joanna Jedrzejczyk to crown a new champion in the Women’s Flyweight division, but this weekend it’s the turn of her older sister Antonina. Originally pegged to face top ten ranked Ashlee Evans-Smith, she’s now got her hands full with Kim, who has already reeled off two wins in the Octagon in the burgeoning division.

Judging on what we’ve seen of her, Shevchenko isn’t as well developed as her sister on the ground, but standing she’s not far off being as dangerous as ‘Bullet’. She’s taller and longer than Valentina, and has shown the ability to use that reach to good effect, most notably to abuse opponent Jaimee Niviera both at range and in the clinch during their fight on Dana White’s Contender Series.

Kim appears to want to be a classic power striker, but unfortunately for her, based on her UFC outings thus far she simply doesn’t hit that hard and she’s liable to take punishment herself because of this. That style largely explains why she’s already ended up with two split decision wins in the Octagon.

I expect this fight to remain standing for the majority of the time; Kim is probably more likely to attempt to take it to the ground, but Shevchenko has enough of a grappling game to fend her off, and on the feet I give the advantage to ‘Pantera’, as she appears to be more of an accurate striker and will likely be able to avoid Kim’s power shots and take full advantage.

The Pick: Shevchenko via unanimous decision

#7 The Prelims: Fox Sports 1 card

Rick Glenn will bring his aggressive style against Kevin Aguilar

Exciting Featherweight Rick Glenn headlines the FS1 portion of the prelim card, and he’s faced with a late replacement in the form of Kevin Aguilar, who stepped in about two weeks ago to replace Arnold Allen. Aguilar has an impressive record at 15-1 and after winning on Dana White’s Contender Series, was probably knocking on the door of the UFC regardless. This could be a tough fight for him, though – Glenn is a step up in competition and has shown aggression in all areas as well as a strong takedown game. I favour Glenn’s pressure game here; I’m just not sure how Aguilar will deal with someone who will not stop coming forward. Glenn via decision is the pick.

At Flyweight, longtime veteran and former title challenger Joseph Benavidez was pegged to face off with Ray Borg here, but instead he’ll take on Alex Perez, who has already reeled off 3 wins in the Octagon since debuting via the Contender Series in 2017. In his prime this likely would’ve been a comfortable win for Benavidez, but he’s been looking slower and slower with every fight recently, and after a serious knee surgery he was beaten in a non-title fight for the first time by Sergio Pettis earlier this year. This fight screams upset to me; Perez showed stunning punching power in his knockout win over Jose Torres, appears to be a solid wrestler, and Benavidez looks more vulnerable than ever right now. Call me crazy but I’m taking Perez via knockout.

In a battle of beaten TUF semi-finalists, Heavyweights Maurice Greene and Michel Batista throw down. Greene should have the advantage on the feet here, as he’s 6’7” and showed a strong kickboxing game on the reality show, but the question is whether he can keep the fight standing, given Batista was a 2008 Olympian in freestyle wrestling representing Cuba. Batista isn’t a physical specimen like his countryman Yoel Romero and his loss on TUF to Justin Frazier doesn’t bode well for his future in my opinion, but I think he’s got enough to take out the inexperienced Greene here, and win a decision.

The Women’s Featherweight losing semi-finalists also face off as Leah Letson takes on Julija Stoliarenko. This should come down to whether Letson’s aggressive brawling style can take out Stoliarenko before the Lithuanian can get the fight to the ground, as on the mat she’s a highly dangerous grappler who used an armbar to submit Marciea Allen on the reality show. Letson has more top-flight experience though, and so I think she can keep the fight standing and beat Stoliarenko up for a decision.

#8 The Prelims: Fight Pass card

Roosevelt Roberts looks like a dangerous prospect at 155lbs

Lightweights Darrell Horcher and newcomer Roosevelt Roberts headline the Fight Pass portion of Friday’s card. Roberts is another product of Dana White’s Contender Series, and at 6’1” he’s a tall and rangy Lightweight who uses that length to good effect primarily on the ground. Horcher is more of a classic grinder, and after his loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov in 2016 he’s settled into a solid role as a gatekeeper. The two likely outcomes here are Roberts putting Horcher away swiftly with a submission, or Horcher grinding out a decision – and I’m leaning towards experience and going with Horcher.

At Welterweight, Tim Means takes on Ricky Rainey in a fight that to me sounds tailor-made for ‘The Dirty Bird’. Means hasn’t looked at his best for a while now but when he is on form, he’s essentially a taller version of Matt Brown; a gritty brawler who fights best from the clinch. Rainey meanwhile is a slow starter who didn’t appear to take a punch well in his UFC debut, a loss to Muslim Salikhov. I’m betting Means can get him into a clinch, and from there a knee or an elbow should end Rainey’s night. Means by TKO in the first round is my pick.

Finally, Raoni Barcelos faces newcomer Chris Gutierrez in a Bantamweight fight. Barcelos came into the UFC in July with the reputation of a stellar grappler, but actually used a very effective striking game to take out the tough Kurt Holobaugh, finishing him in the 3rd for good measure. Gutierrez has a solid record but I’m not sure if he can compete with Barcelos in any areas really, and so the Brazilian via a finish – either knockout or submission – is my guess.