UFC: Ultimate Fighter 28 Finale - Predictions and Picks

#4 Pedro Munhoz vs. Bryan Caraway

Pedro Munhoz will be looking for another finish against Bryan Caraway

Impressively for a TUF Finale, we’ve got a battle between two top-fifteen ranked Bantamweights on tap for the main card too. This should be a super-interesting fight as Munhoz and Caraway match up well and there are plenty of questions that should be answered when the two enter the Octagon on Friday.

For Caraway, the biggest question mark is how much he actually has left. Maligned due to some unsavoury incidents during his UFC run – most notably when he fish-hooked Erik Perez in a 2014 fight – Caraway looked like he might be developing into a surprising contender when he upset Aljamain Sterling in 2016, but he subsequently sat out for two years – eroding any momentum he had – and then lost to Cody Stamann upon his return this March.

At his best, Caraway is a stifling grappler with a dangerous submission game, but he’s never been the most fluent striker on his feet and he appeared to be moving somewhat slower in the fight with Stamann, perhaps due to his age – he’s 34, which is relatively old for a Bantamweight in the UFC.

Munhoz meanwhile has been on an upward trajectory since his unsuccessful UFC debut in 2014, as he’s beaten the likes of Rob Font and Brett Johns, while only losing – in close calls – to Raphael Assuncao, Jimmie Rivera and John Dodson, all top-ranked opponents.

I’m favouring Munhoz pretty heavily here. On the feet he’s a strong pressure fighter and is a far superior striker to Caraway, and what’s more he has the finishing instincts to put away a hurt opponent – as he did in his impressive win over Font. And it’s unlikely that Caraway’s grappling pressure will work too well against ‘The Young Punisher’, as he’s equally dangerous on the ground and has one of the best guillotine chokes in the business.

Caraway may stay competitive for a round or two but I’m betting that Munhoz can not only win, but he can get ‘Kid Lightning’ out of there inside the distance, too.

The Pick: Munhoz via second round KO