5 reasons why Charles Oliveira's invitation to Islam Makhachev to grapple at UFC 280 could be a mistake

Charles Oliveira will finally cross swords with Islam Makhachev at UFC 280 in a matchup many have been hotly anticipating since the Brazilian's ascension to the lightweight throne. While 'do Bronx' was stripped of his UFC lightweight title following a mishap at the UFC 274 weigh-ins, many still regard him as the reigning lightweight champion.

His UFC 280 matchup with Islam Makhachev is being looked at by many as Oliveira's third title-defense. Prior to the bout's announcement, the Brazilian actively chased a more lucrative fight with former lightweight and featherweight champion Conor McGregor to the dismay of many MMA purists who felt the Irishman was undeserving of a title fight after losing his last two bouts against Dustin 'The Diamond' Poirier.

Accusations of Oliveira supposedly ducking Makhachev became rampant, ultimately drawing the ire of 'do Bronx.' Needled by the disrespect he has been shown, Charles Oliveira named himself the lightweight division's problem before dismissing all talk of ducking. The Brazilian went so far as to propose starting the fight with Makhachev on the ground to prove his grappling superiority against Makhachev, who is widely hailed as the second-coming of Khabib Nurmagomedov.

However, as skilled as Oliveira is on the ground, this list details the five reasons why it isn't advisable for him to grapple with the Russian.

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#5. Charles Oliveira may struggle against Makhachev's dexterity with his legs

Before Charles Oliveira was scheduled to face Islam Makhachev, the dream matchup in the lightweight division was between Khabib Nurmagomedov and Tony Ferguson. Much of the intrigue involving the matchup revolved around the grappling exchanges that would ensue. However, that matchup would've likely been a lopsided grappling affair in Nurmagomedov's favor for the same reason Oliveira would be ill-advised to facilitate Makhachev's grappling.

Makhachev, like Nurmagomedov, is highly proficient at neutralizing his opponents on the ground. Specifically, he wraps his legs around his opponent's, triangling them and lifting their ankles off the mat. This makes it impossible for his opponents to stand back up as they're unable to plant their feet on the mat and push themselves up. This was on clear display when Khabib fought Conor McGregor at UFC 229.

Additionally, trapping an opponent's legs prevents them from threatening almost any submissions or sweeps. Guillotine chokes, anaconda chokes, armbars, etc., all require the use of one's legs for positioning and leverage. If Oliveira's legs are being constantly triangled, he will be unable to reliably threaten any of his submissions.

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#4. Islam Makhachev's tripoding will pose a problem

Makhachev's tripoding will pose an issue as it will render it extremely difficult for 'Do Bronx' to threaten guillotine chokes or throw strikes from the bottom.

When Makhachev tripods, he presses either his head or upper-body against his opponent's chin or against their chest. Both methods break his foe's posture and pin them to the mat while he then lifts his own hips to step over their legs to advance into a superior position like half-guard or full mount. When a grounded fighter's posture is broken and their chest or head is pinned to the mat, they're unable to generate any offense.

Even if Charles Oliveira manages to secure a guillotine choke, Makhachev's tripoding works as a well-oiled counter. Not only does lifting his hips and torso relieve the pressure on his neck, it also allows him to step over to his opponent's side to render the choke all but useless. Charles Oliveira will only succeed in tiring out his arms by pursuing a guillotine choke against Makhachev, as was the case when Khabib fought Dustin Poirier.

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#3. Charles Oliveira will struggle to return to his feet

If the Brazilian realizes it might have been a mistake to grapple with Islam Makhachev, he will encounter another problem many fighters have struggled with.

Many of Makhachev's takedowns are completed against the fence. The purpose of this is to maintain grappling dominance over his foes. The current counter-wrestling approach in MMA is to use the fence to wall-walk. Fighters intent on getting back to their feet use the wall to scramble their way back into a standing position.

However, this isn't effective against the likes of Makhachev because he keeps his opponents pinned against the fence where he'll trap one of their wrists with a thumbs-down grip while shoving the top of his head against their chin to break their posture and keep their head in place.

In this position, Makhachev constantly switches between wrestling and striking to batter his opponent with punches until his foe uses their free hand to block them. However, if his opponent's free hand is focused on blocking punches, it is not low enough to dig for an underhook to defend a takedown, allowing Makhachev to easily secure an underhook of his own to trip his foes or simply drop down to their hips for a takedown.

Makhachev traps his opponents in a loop against the fence. If they try to block his punches, they expose themselves to his takedowns. However, if they try to defend his takedowns, they expose themselves to his punches. It's a losing situation no matter which option his foes choose.

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#2. Oliveira's guard defense is suspect

In MMA and indeed grappling as a whole, a top position is often more advantageous than a bottom position. Thus, many grapplers are trained to stand back to their feet in order to escape the bottom positions. Specifically, Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialists are often trained to roll into the turtle position to stand back up the moment their guard is passed.

Due to this, many BJJ black belts in MMA roll over to stand back up. Charles Oliveira is no exception. He commonly rolls and turtles to stand back up whenever his opponents try to pass his guard, which caused him to face some trouble against Nik Lentz.

This is an especially troubling instinct against a grappler of Islam Makhachev's caliber because in doing so Oliveira exposes his back to a foe who will almost certainly mount it en route to either flattening him out and setting up a rear-naked choke or securing constant mat returns to exhaust the Brazilian. This is what led to Khabib Nurmagomedov's rear-naked choke win over Dustin Poirier, another BJJ black belt.

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#1. Charles Oliveira will be unable to sweep Makhachev

While Charles Oliveira is a highly skilled and fearsome grappler, his tools against Makhachev will be limited. On the ground, many of his submission threats will be neutralized by the points highlighted in previous entries. However, another wall Oliveira will encounter is the Russian's defense against BJJ sweeps.

The Brazilian's guard is effective but he has struggled to use it against the high-level wrestlers he has faced, ranging from Frankie Edgar to Kevin Lee before the latter's cardio failed him and he was guillotined. Wrestling from top is a longstanding neutralizer for the BJJ guard, used to great success against Charles Oliveira by even Paul Felder.

Given how high Makhachev raises his hips when tripoding, 'Do Bronx' might attempt butterfly sweeps. Unfortunately, because Makhachev has slippery hips, he is difficult to sweep. Furthermore, wrestlers in general are more difficult for BJJ specialists to sweep because wrestlers always bridge or initiate scrambles to fight for position whereas BJJ practitioners typically cede the position and move on.

Charles Oliveira, of course, has the skillset to submit even Makhachev, but the calmness, method, and predatory instinct of Makhachev make it highly unlikely. Nonetheless, 'do Bronx' has proved doubters wrong time and time again, and if he can submit Makhachev, fans will rally for the return of Khabib Nurmagomedov.