5 reasons why Charles Oliveira's invitation to Islam Makhachev to grapple at UFC 280 could be a mistake

#2. Oliveira's guard defense is suspect

In MMA and indeed grappling as a whole, a top position is often more advantageous than a bottom position. Thus, many grapplers are trained to stand back to their feet in order to escape the bottom positions. Specifically, Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialists are often trained to roll into the turtle position to stand back up the moment their guard is passed.

Due to this, many BJJ black belts in MMA roll over to stand back up. Charles Oliveira is no exception. He commonly rolls and turtles to stand back up whenever his opponents try to pass his guard, which caused him to face some trouble against Nik Lentz.

This is an especially troubling instinct against a grappler of Islam Makhachev's caliber because in doing so Oliveira exposes his back to a foe who will almost certainly mount it en route to either flattening him out and setting up a rear-naked choke or securing constant mat returns to exhaust the Brazilian. This is what led to Khabib Nurmagomedov's rear-naked choke win over Dustin Poirier, another BJJ black belt.

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#1. Charles Oliveira will be unable to sweep Makhachev

While Charles Oliveira is a highly skilled and fearsome grappler, his tools against Makhachev will be limited. On the ground, many of his submission threats will be neutralized by the points highlighted in previous entries. However, another wall Oliveira will encounter is the Russian's defense against BJJ sweeps.

The Brazilian's guard is effective but he has struggled to use it against the high-level wrestlers he has faced, ranging from Frankie Edgar to Kevin Lee before the latter's cardio failed him and he was guillotined. Wrestling from top is a longstanding neutralizer for the BJJ guard, used to great success against Charles Oliveira by even Paul Felder.

Given how high Makhachev raises his hips when tripoding, 'Do Bronx' might attempt butterfly sweeps. Unfortunately, because Makhachev has slippery hips, he is difficult to sweep. Furthermore, wrestlers in general are more difficult for BJJ specialists to sweep because wrestlers always bridge or initiate scrambles to fight for position whereas BJJ practitioners typically cede the position and move on.

Charles Oliveira, of course, has the skillset to submit even Makhachev, but the calmness, method, and predatory instinct of Makhachev make it highly unlikely. Nonetheless, 'do Bronx' has proved doubters wrong time and time again, and if he can submit Makhachev, fans will rally for the return of Khabib Nurmagomedov.