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Former Bellator lightweight champion Michael Chandler has been linked to a potential matchup with two-time UFC lightweight title challenger Dustin Poirier for quite some time now. The history between the two dates back to Michael Chandler's UFC debut at UFC 257.
The former All-American wrestler announced himself to the rest of the UFC lightweight division by becoming the first fighter to knock Dan Hooker unconscious. Following his emphatic victory, Chandler expressed an interest in facing Dustin Poirier for the vacant UFC lightweight title, a suggestion that Poirier subsequently rejected.
'The Diamond' scoffed at the rationale behind Michael Chandler being booked for a title fight after defeating a foe he had beaten prior to him, as Hooker's most recent bout before his loss to Michael Chandler was a loss to Poirier himself.
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Furthermore, Poirier felt that Chandler—a UFC debutant—had no right to skip the long line of existing contenders after only one fight in the promotion.
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Scorned by Poirier's dismissal, Michael Chandler returned the favor when, after Poirier lost to Charles Oliveira at UFC 269, 'Iron' refused to entertain the Louisiana native's suggestion that they fight. Trash talk ensued, culminating in a cageside confrontation at UFC 276.
Now, with Poirier's manager claiming that the fight is closer than ever to being booked, and Chandler himself claiming that a matchup with 'The Diamond' is imminent, this list outlines five reasons why Michael Chandler might defeat Dustin Poirier, and five reasons why he might not.
#10. Can: Chandler's knockout power
Both Dustin Poirier and Michael Chandler are powerful punchers. 'The Diamond' is a combination puncher who routinely switches stances while punching to crack his foes on the open side of their guard. Chandler, meanwhile, does not throw at a volume as high as Poirier's.
Instead, 'Iron' pours every ounce of his weight into his punches by stepping deep into every strike. Doing so enhances his natural reserves of crushing knockout power, making him a constant danger against any chin he lands on. While Poirier himself hits hard, he does not possess the kind of punching power that 'Iron' does.
Furthermore, Dustin Poirier does not possess the greatest chin either. While he's almost certainly a more technical striker than Michael Chandler, the All-American has a great equalizer against a chin that has been cracked in the past.
#9. Can't: Dustin Poirier's calf kicks
Not only is Michael Chandler very powerful, but he's lightning-quick as well. The speed at which the former Bellator world champion can close the distance is astonishing. This is partly due to his wealth of fast-twitch muscle fibers, but also his wide, sideward stance.
Michael Chandler's stance renders him capable of darting in and out of range very quickly. However, the disadvantage of a bladed stance in modern-day MMA is that fighters have begun to use calf kicks to destabilize wide, sideward stances.
As Chandler stands sideward with his lead leg turned inward, the back of his lead leg is always exposed, rendering his calf an open target.
Poirier, a prolific calf kicker, will almost certainly target Michael Chandler's lead leg. Unlike standard low kicks, calf kicks don't need to be used in great volume to deal crippling damage. If 'Iron' does not adjust his stance, he will be left all but immobile by his foe's kicks.
#8. Can: Dustin Poirier is easy to back up
Dustin Poirier is a curious case. His evolution as a fighter has turned him into a competent counter-puncher who uses the Philly Shell to deflect incoming punches with his shoulders, elbows, and the top of his head while returning fire against overzealous opponents.
It has made him extremely comfortable in pocket exchanges. Thus, Poirier never addressed his tendency to cede space.
When Poirier's opponents pressure him, 'The Diamond' retreats and has no qualms about being sandwiched between his foe and the fence. He is comfortable fighting with his back against the cage, famously countering Conor McGregor in their initial rematch at UFC 257 while his own back was against the fence. This, however, would be a mistake against Michael Chandler.
As he is shorter and stockier than Poirier, Michael Chandler can crowd his foe against the fence in a way that McGregor couldn't. The Irishman fought from a specific counterpunching range that left Poirier with enough breathing room to respond with counters of his own.
Chandler, on the other hand, is one of the shortest lightweights in the world and always looks to cover as much distance as possible.
With little space between them at close range, Michael Chandler's shorter arms will be able to throw with significant power. This will be while Poirier is trapped against the fence without the space and leverage for his longer arms to return fire because 'Iron' will have to be very close to land his own shots.
#7. Can't: Dustin Poirier's shifting combinations
One of the most visible tools in Dustin Poirier's striking arsenal is his stance-switching. Specifically, the former UFC interim lightweight champion switches stances mid-combination.
Often-times, he's standing in his usual southpaw stance before throwing a straight left and shifting into orthodox halfway through the punch to land an overhand right.
This is a highly effective tactic whenever Poirier faces orthodox fighters like Chandler because it changes the alignment of his punches from his opponent's closed side to their open side. The closed side of orthodox fighters is their right side because their right hand is their rear hand, which is tucked close to the chin.
As Poirier's left hand is aligned with their right hand, his shifts start in closed guard before ending in his opponent's open guard as his overhand right thunders through the gap on their exposed left side, provided his foe is an orthodox fighter like Chandler.
#6. Can: Michael Chandler's fakes and setups
While there's no disputing that Michael Chandler's fighting style benefits massively from his athletic gifts, there is a foundation of technique beneath it all. 'Iron' makes use of traps and fakes to create openings for his most devastating strikes.
For example, Chandler has—as do many wrestlers who transition into MMA—faked takedowns for the benefit of his punches.
The former world champion changes levels, dipping low as if intent on pursuing a takedown, causing his opponents to drop their hands in anticipation. When his opponents do so, they end up realizing that Michael Chandler had no intention of pursuing the takedown as he throws an overhand right over the top. This is one of Chandler's many fakes.
His knockout win over Dan Hooker is another example of the less celebrated aspects of his striking. Michael Chandler spent the opening minutes of the first round targeting Hooker's midsection with a straight right.
Smartly, 'Iron' didn't use any follow-up strikes, conditioning his foe into assuming there was no consequence to circling away from his straight right to the body.
Once that reaction was burned into Hooker's mind, Michael Chandler intercepted him with an overhand left as 'The Hangman' circled away from his foe's right straight to the body as he had several times in the bout.
Only this time, he unknowingly circled into the arc of an overhand left that ended his night. With the amount of firepower his punches carry, Chandler only needs to disarm Poirier a handful of times with fakes and setups before they pay dividends.
#5. Can't: Michael Chandler's vulnerability to counterpunches
One of the most identifiable aspects of Michael Chandler's fighting style is that it depends on his willingness to pressure his foes. The All-American typically refuses to take a step backwards and this is most evident due to the amount of weight he commits to his punches.
Whenever 'Iron' throws punches, he steps in very deep. While this magnifies his natural punching power, it also means he engineers his own demise whenever a successful counterpunch lands.
Similarly, this is why Holly Holm repeatedly rocked Ronda Rousey in their striking exchanges despite Holm's reputation as a pillow-fisted striker.
Michael Chandler, like Rousey, has a habit of running into his opponent's punches due to the amount of weight he pours into his punches when he steps forward so deeply.
He creates a lot of momentum, which means that when his foes stick their fists in front of his face, he's all but recreating a car crash as he runs into punches he never saw coming.
Against Poirier, who has evolved into a skilled counterpuncher by using his Philly Shell to deflect his opponent's blows with his elbows, shoulders, and the top of his head, before countering them as they overextend, Michael Chandler's knack for overextending and running into punches could lead to an early end to his night.
In fact, this is how Patricio 'Pitbull' Freire knocked Chandler unconscious in their rematch. The All-American stepped in deep as he threw a jab, only for 'Pitbull' to slip on the inside of Chandler's jab and counter him over the top with an overhand right as his rival committed all of his weight to the jab.
#4. Can: Chandler's body shots
Dustin Poirier's defense against strikes that target his head is fairly sharp. This isn't to say that his chin is difficult to tag. However, 'The Diamond' possesses solid defensive striking against foes who headhunt, largely due to his newfound counter-punching, which the likes of Justin Gaethje and Eddie Alvarez have all been well acquainted with.
Unfortunately for the former UFC interim lightweight champion, he does not exhibit the same defensive instincts when it comes to strikes that target his midsection.
Charles Oliveira, for example, depleted Dustin Poirier's well-known gas tank at UFC 269 by repeatedly assaulting his opponent's midsection with knees. Similarly, Michael Chandler is a fighter who consistently targets his foe's midsection.
His go-to strikes are typically straight rights with right-round kicks to the body. However, the All-American does occasionally add a lead left hook to the midsection to stop foes from circling away from his power side. His efforts to target the body were best seen against Dan Hooker and Benson Henderson.
If Poirier's gas tank can be sapped as badly as it was against Oliveira by his foe's body shots, that same strategy employed by a more powerful striker like Michael Chandler will certainly pay off.
#3. Can't: Poirier's wall-walking
If, at some point, Michael Chandler finds that he's unable to strike with Dustin Poirier, he's likely to revert to his wrestling roots and pursue takedowns against 'The Diamond'. Michael Chandler is a strong takedown artist whose physical strength and explosiveness serve him well in grounding his foes.
Like many explosive wrestlers, 'Iron' has a powerful blast double-leg takedown he often times when his opponents retreat in a straight line. Despite Poirier's penchant for being easily backed up to the fence, he won't be an opponent that Chandler will easily secure takedowns against.
If Dustin Poirier retreats to the fence as he often does, it enhances his counter-wrestling due to the wall-walking strategy that's been popularized by American Top Team.
Not only does Poirier use the fence as a barrier against a takedown's momentum, but he uses the fence to scale back to his feet whenever his opponents successfully ground him.
His struggles against wrestlers seem to come mostly against chain-wrestlers like Khabib Nurmagomedov. Chandler is a completely different breed of wrestler who does not chain-wrestle and tires quickly if his opponent initiates enough scrambles after being taken down.
#2. Can: Michael Chandler's speed
Much of Michael Chandler's defensive striking relies on sheer speed. While fighters generally become more hittable the longer a fight progresses and the more fatigue sets in, this is especially true with the former Bellator world champion. However, Chandler is unlikely to aim for or win a decision over Dustin Poirier.
Instead, a knockout win would be the most favorable outcome as it would make use of Chandler's greatest physical attributes when it comes to his striking: power and speed.
The All-American is tremendously quick and able to dart in and out of range. In the first round of his bouts, Michael Chandler's opponents often struggle to find their timing due to his speed.
Poirier, by no means a fast fighter, will encounter difficulties landing his counterpunches while Chandler is still fresh, much like Justin Gaethje did. At the onset of every bout, 'Iron' is quick enough to easily hop out of range of his foe's strikes.
Every time Poirier misses a counterpunch, Chandler will almost certainly be darting right back in to capitalize on the opening.
#1. Can't: Dustin Poirier's cardio
The former Bellator world champion has as much heart as any fighter. No one can ever doubt the willpower that Chandler possesses. His war with Justin Gaethje at UFC 268 is evidence of his desire to win, no matter the cost. Unfortunately, no amount of willpower can account for Chandler's limited cardio.
As a fighter with fast-twitch muscle fibers, the All-American is explosive and powerful, while his cardio is relatively poor, having failed him in several bouts throughout his career.
If he is unable to secure an early knockout win over Dustin Poirier in their potential matchup, he'll be forced into a fight that his cardio is ill-equipped to carry him through.
Dustin Poirier, meanwhile, has excellent cardio that has rendered him capable of going four rounds with Justin Gaethje and even five rounds against former UFC featherweight champion Max Holloway, a fighter known for possessing some of the most impressive cardio on the entire UFC roster.
