5 reasons why T.J. Dillashaw will beat Aljamain Sterling

UFC 280 will feature T.J. Dillashaw and Aljamain Sterling in the co-main event. Both fighters will compete for the UFC bantamweight championship. Dillashaw, a former champion, seeks to recapture it. Meanwhile, Sterling hopes to defend his divisional throne from the 135 lbs weight class' latest title challenger.

While the headline bout involving Charles Oliveira and Islam Makhachev has captured the imagination of UFC fans, T.J. Dillashaw and Aljamain Sterling's upcoming bout will be an interesting clash of styles.

Sterling quickly announced himself as one of the bantamweight division's finest grapplers. 'Funk Master' possesses a well-rounded grappling skill-set that combines his wrestling experience with exceptional Brazilian jiu-jitsu.

T.J. Dillashaw, by contrast, is a more complete fighter who is comfortable in every facet of mixed martial arts. He is a skilled striker whose footwork and movement are geared towards total offense, while his own wrestling experience serves as a reliable barrier against opponents who intend to ground him.

As UFC 280 looms closer with each passing day, this list explores five reasons why T.J. Dillashaw will defeat Aljamain Sterling on the 22nd of October.

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#5. T.J. Dillashaw's takedown defense

T.J. Dillashaw has defended 86% of the takedowns he's encountered inside the octagon. A collegiate wrestler blessed with strength and explosiveness, Dillashaw is incredibly difficult to drag to the mat.

His first line of defense involves a traditional sprawl. Whenever an opponent dives towards his hips, the former UFC bantamweight champion quickly hooks his arm over their neck while exploding his hips back before snapping his upper-body weight down onto the rear of their neck.

Furthermore, Dillashaw widens his base and pushes off both of his feet to counteract his foe's momentum to stop them from potentially turning at an angle to secure a stronger position from which to continue driving forward.

The speed and explosiveness that Dillashaw calls upon when defending takedowns will render it difficult for Sterling to catch him off-guard.

Additionally, Sterling's preferred outcome involves securing his opponent's back. Back-mounts off of takedown attempts are usually the result of an opponent who either turns over to their stomach to push off the mat with their hands and feet or an opponent who is a poor scrambler.

Dillashaw does neither and is an exceptional scrambler who is quick to fight for position after a failed takedown from his foes. If Sterling cannot secure takedowns against Dillashaw, he will almost certainly lose their bout as 'Funk Master's best chances lie in securing a submission.

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#4. T.J. Dillashaw's offensive wrestling

Aljamain Sterling might be too great a defensive wrestler for T.J. Dillashaw to take down. But for Dillashaw's offensive wrestling to net positive results, he doesn't have to secure takedowns. Instead, he merely needs to establish the threat of his takedowns so that Sterling does not fight without fear of being grounded himself.

As a wrestler, T.J. Dillashaw relies on his explosiveness. While there's a greater breadth to his takedowns and overall wrestling, his primary threat is his blast-double-leg takedown. As a powerful striker, Dillashaw is quick to earn his opponent's respect.

Once his foes hyperfixate on protecting themselves from his punches and kicks, the former world champion's feints and fakes force defensive reactions from them. Typically, these reactions entail raising one's guard to block punches that target the head.

Watch T.J. Dillashaw's wrestling masterclass against John Linekar below:

However, if Sterling raises his guard to protect his face, he'll expose his hips, enabling Dillashaw to shoot right under. The point of doing so isn't to secure a takedown, but to force Sterling to think of more than just Dillashaw's striking.

Creating an overload of variables in Sterling's mind will allow the former champion to easily dictate his opponent's reactions.

A level change will cause Sterling to drop his hands in anticipation of a takedown only for Dillashaw to land a punch or kick over the top and vice versa. Since Sterling is not used to opponents who try to wrestle him in the cage, it will destabilize his primary approach and gameplan and force him into a defensive mindset that he's ill-equipped for.

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#3. T.J. Dillashaw is the far superior striker

Aljamain Sterling is a serviceable striker with a dynamic kicking game. Unfortunately, a kick-heavy approach is not without its drawbacks despite the superior power they feature compared to punches. A kick requires space, time and leverage to land with optimal power.

Thus, kickers typically fight moving forward as they pressure their opponents towards the fence.

Alas, 'Funk Master' does little else besides kicking. Meanwhile, T.J. Dillashaw is a complete striker who glides from one stance to the next as he constantly changes the alignments of striking exchanges while advancing.

Not only will Sterling not be in position to land his kicks due to Dillashaw's changes in alignment lining him with his power-hand for hard counters, but his constant forward movement will deprive Sterling of the space he needs to comfortably throw kicks.

Dillashaw is rarely a stationary target and often moves his head off the center-line. Furthermore, the threat of his wrestling creates openings for his powerful round kicks. Once he leaves Sterling concerned about being taken down, he'll do as he always does: dip low to tease a takedown. The moment Sterling drops his hands to stuff the takedown shot, Dillashaw will instead whip a kick at his exposed head.

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#2. T.J. Dillashaw's movement

Aljamain Sterling's decision to operate as a kicker will suffer not only because of Dillashaw's pressure but because of the former UFC champion's movement as well. Kicking is a delicate art that requires optimal range to be maximally effective.

As described in the previous entry, a strong kicker requires time, space and leverage to impose their primary approach. Not being able to consistently establish the correct range is what plagued powerful kickers like Anthony Pettis.

A fighter is either forced to backstep to create space, causing them to kick while moving backwards like Carlos Condit did to little effect, or a fighter might kick ahead of themselves if an opponent fights beyond their range.

T.J. Dillashaw is an extremely mobile fighter who can do both. He can and should pressure Sterling when both men cross paths. However, in order to stop Sterling from making reads to potentially time a takedown as Dillashaw moves forward, he must use variety.

Dillashaw is known for sliding out of the path of kicks and even moving laterally to force his opponents to kick into empty spaces while the former champion pivots into their open side. Doing so against Sterling will pay dividends and enable him to counter the reigning bantamweight kingpin when he's one-legged on the open side.

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#1. Cardio and Gameplanning

One of Aljamain Sterling's poorest habits is throwing kicks at a volume that's too high for his limited cardio to support. When 'Funk Master' faced Petr Yan in their initial matchup at UFC 259, he quickly exhausted himself by throwing too many kicks in a short stretch of time.

In their rematch at UFC 273, Sterling reversed this approach and greatly diminished his volume. Neither approach will be effective against Dillashaw.

Throwing too many kicks too quickly will tire him against T.J. Dillashaw, who by contrast, does not tire. He has fought five rounds four separate times, while going four rounds on one occasion. All bouts were high-octane affairs.

Tiring early against Dillashaw, whose volume will only increase as the fight proceeds, would be a fight-ending mistake for Sterling. Additionally, reducing his volume due to fears of depleting his own cardio will not serve Sterling either.

Instead, it will only allow Dillashaw to establish control of the fight early and with greater ease. The dilemma lies in the gameplanning issues that Sterling's cardio causes. Due to his preference for kicking, he quickly saps his limited cardio, forcing him to choose between kicking frequently or barely at all. With no serviceable boxing skills, Sterling has no in-between options.